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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Virginia Cavaliers: Advanced Stat Preview

Bryce Perkins will pose a problem for Tech’s defense

Virginia v North Carolina Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images

Georgia Tech Offense vs. Virginia Defense

Data courtesy of Sports Source Analytics. Data visualization courtesy of Zane Murfitt (Coug Center).

Another game, another week where Georgia Tech’s offense faces a defense that is well-suited to defend it. What is good here is that Virginia’s rush defense isn’t nearly as good as teams like Miami or Pitt, so Tech should have a bit of an easier time establishing the run game. Much like Tech’s running game, Virginia’s rush defense has been very all or nothing. They have a very high stuff rate (24 percent), but also have a moderately low explosive rate (9 percent).

Georgia Tech Offensive Explosiveness vs. Virginia Defense

Data courtesy of Sports Source Analytics. Data visualization courtesy of Zane Murfitt (Coug Center).

Looking specifically at the down-by-down success rate, things seem like they’re going to go like they normally do: not well. Getting early down success will be vital for Tech to stay in this game, and I think they’ll have an easier time of it versus Virginia than they did against Pitt, as Pitt’s defense is a little more disruptive.

Georgia Tech Defense vs. Virginia Offense

Data courtesy of Sports Source Analytics. Data visualization courtesy of Zane Murfitt (Coug Center).

What’s interesting here is the fact that despite having high pass and run success rates, the Cavaliers offense doesn’t gain many yards per play, which results in one of the worst explosive rates in the country (7 percent, 113th in the country). For the most part, I think this game bodes pretty well for Georgia Tech’s defense. Obviously the most difficult part will be attempting to contain quarterback Bryce Perkins.

Georgia Tech Defense vs. Virginia Offensive Explosiveness

Data courtesy of Sports Source Analytics. Data visualization courtesy of Zane Murfitt (Coug Center).

The Cavaliers aren’t going to win this game with explosive play after explosive plays. They will move the ball consistently, though, and that’s how they’ve been successful. Well, that and Bryce Perkins being Bryce Perkins.

Conclusion

Virginia’s offense lives and dies by the success of Bryce Perkins. Looking at the stats, I think Tech has a decent chance of shutting him down in terms of passing the ball. What I don’t know is how successful they’ll be in stopping Perkins while running the ball. If Tech does a good job of shutting down the passing game, the linebackers will be key in slowing Perkins down throughout the rest of the game.