Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. NC State Wolfpack: Advanced Stats Preview

Georgia Tech Offense vs. NC State Defense

Data courtesy of Sports Source Analytics. Data visualization courtesy of Zane Murfitt (Coug Center).

Well I’m much less optimistic about this game after looking at this. It turns out that NC State actually has a pretty solid defense. There are two things that really stand out to me here: (1) NC State’s rush defense and (2) NC State’s ability to limit explosive plays. I’ll touch on the explosive plays in the next section, but the Wolfpack’s rush defense has held opposing rushing attacks to just a 36.06 percent success rate on running plays, making them a Top 25 team in that respect. NC State’s front seven is also good at stuffing plays and causing havoc, which are two things Tech’s offense is really bad at preventing those things.

Georgia Tech Offensive Explosiveness vs. NC State Defense

Data courtesy of Sports Source Analytics. Data visualization courtesy of Zane Murfitt (Coug Center).

Moving over to explosiveness, this is where Tech has a better chance to make an impact. When Tech’s offense has been successful, it’s because Tech has been able to get those explosive plays. What doesn’t bode well for Tech in this data set is how good NC State’s defense is on first downs. They are allowing just a 35 percent success rate.

Georgia Tech Defense vs. NC State Offense

Data courtesy of Sports Source Analytics. Data visualization courtesy of Zane Murfitt (Coug Center).

And now I feel a little better about this game. As good as NC State’s defense has been for them this season, the Wolfpack’s offense has been just as lacking. Now led by a freshman quarterback, the Wolfpack are reliant on their rushing attack. They have a painfully consistent rushing attack (45.09 percent success rate). Unfortunately, that’s what Tech is really not great at. That could prove to be a thorn in Tech’s side, but I feel pretty confident in saying the defense should be able to take care of NC State’s passing attack.

Georgia Tech Defense vs. NC State Offensive Explosiveness

Data courtesy of Sports Source Analytics. Data visualization courtesy of Zane Murfitt (Coug Center).

Remember how I was talking about NC State’s painfully consistent rushing attack? Yeah, so they are also good at breaking off explosive rushing plays (23rd-best in the country). Despite Tech not being great at stopping the run, the Yellow Jackets have actually been solid in containing those rushing attacks.

Conclusion

I really don’t know what to expect from this game. I think it will be a low-scoring game, but ultimately, I think this comes down to which team can either get more stops or cause more turnovers. My biggest concern is the comparison of rushing attacks. That’s been both teams’ strength this season, but NC State has been better at stopping the run. I think it also depends on which Tech team shows up.