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Football: Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame Advanced Box Score

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Taking an in-depth look at the stats behind Saturday's loss

Long time readers will remember the Advanced Box Scores from last year, and this year the format is basically the same. For those new readers I'll be presenting different visuals to help explain how the game unfolded and hopefully identify the real areas Georgia Tech excelled or struggled. Also sorry for the lack of these so far, actually, I was on vacation in Thailand so I'm actually not that sorry :) Hope you enjoy! As always comments and questions are welcomed in the comments or on twitter.

Win Probability Chart

NDWP

Top 5 Plays

Offense Down Distance Spot Quarter Play Description WPA+*
1 ND 3 20 GT 46 1

DeShone Kizer Pass to Will Fuller for 46, TOUCHDOWN

.183
2 ND 2 1 ND 39 2

DeShone Kizer Pass to Alizé Jones for 6, FUMBLE

-.144
3 GT 1 10 GT 37 3 Justin Thomas Rush for -2, FUMBLE .139
4 GT 2 5 GT 42 2

Broderick Snoddy Rush for 48, FIRST DOWN

-.136
5 ND 3 7 GT 32 2

DeShone Kizer Pass to Will Fuller for 36, FIRST DOWN

.135

(*) WPA+ = Win Probability Added for the Home Team

  • This Win Probability Graph is a perfect example of how the final score can be misleading. At the start of the 4th quarter Notre Dame had a > 95% chance of winning the game and it quickly shot up to 99% after that. Georgia Tech was never the favorite at any point in the game, if you assume the teams were even at the start of the game. That's crazy.
  • We had our run after their Interception in the endzone about halfway through the 2nd quarter. We went from about a 15% chance of winning to having it basically be a toss up. Unfortunately Notre Dame got bailed out by another long jump ball to Will Fuller and from there their offense started to pick back up.
  • Our first missed field goal, right at the end of the first quarter, only cost us 6 percentage points of Win Probability. However, that ignores the alternative of making the field goal, which would have given us about 3-4 percentage points back. So really the missed field goal cost us just shy of 10 percentage points of win probability, good for around the 7th most important play of the day.

Drive Chart

nddc

  • Tech's first 4 possessions; Punt, Punt, Missed Field Goal, Punt. I mean, I can't remember the last time we started that bad. Ok I looked it up, we actually had three punts and a missed field goal in our first 4 drives against BYU in 2013 and Clemson in 2008. At least there weren't any real turnovers?
  • Give Notre Dame credit, they gave us crappy field position pretty much the whole game and when they didn't we couldn't capitalize.
  • Also our Defense deserves a ton of credit as well. After ND's 2nd touchdown we held them to a Fumble, a Field Goal where ND started on our 18, a Punt after our offense turned it over on downs, and then finally allowed a touchdown when Notre Dame only had about 60 yards to go. It's tough to consistently stop teams when your offense is giving you no help.
Unfortunately I don't have the Advanced Box Score template where I want it right now, but as soon as Bill C posts his I'll link to it here.