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ACC Check In: Week 10

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Taking an in-depth look at the conference

Win Total Projections

accwp

Starting to get to a point where your current standings matter more than the actual talent of your team. FSU has about a 31% chance of winning the Atlantic though that is higher than you will find basically anywhere else. UNC has a 42% chance of finishing with at most 1 conference loss so unless that loss is against Duke they are the odds-on favorite to win the Coastal.

Team Ranks

Team NCAA Rank Overall Offense Defense
Florida State 5 17.2 7.3 -9.9
Clemson 8 17.0 8.0 -9.0
Duke 32 9.6 1.2 -8.4
North Carolina 35 9.4 4.1 -5.3
Miami (Florida) 40 8.0 6.7 -1.3
North Carolina State 42 7.7 7.5 -0.2
Louisville 50 4.9 -3.9 -8.8
Boston College 51 4.7 -8.6 -13.3
Pittsburgh 54 3.9 1.3 -2.6
Georgia Tech 66 0.6 2.2 1.6
Virginia Tech 73 -0.5 -2.1 -1.6
Syracuse 74 -0.8 0.0 0.8
Wake Forest 115 -12.1 -11.9 0.2
Virginia 116 -12.2 -6.8 5.4

  • Miami needs to stop ruining things. Sure they got blown out by Clemson but they just played a good Duke team very close on the road. They definitely have a chance to turn their season around with winnable games against UVA and GT and tough games against UNC and Pitt. Going 3-1 against that isn't out of the realm of possibility.
  • Boston College has to be one of the two-face teams in the country. They have an incredible defense but one of the worst offenses in the country. That has to be an incredibly frustrating team to be a fan of.

Game Predictions

accgame

  • The biggest game in the coastal is obviously Duke at UNC. The teams are basically even so UNC gets the nod for being at home, but this game could go either way.
  • Clemson get's a small edge for the same reason, though this is the lowest odds anyone is giving to Clemson right now, FEI has them as a 95% favorite for example.
And just for fun here is Georgia Tech's remaining schedule. My model gives us a 5-6% chance of making a bowl game. I think this should be higher though, UGA is on an incredible decline so if they continue to play poorly their ranking will go down. And if Miami self-implodes (they didn't against Duke so who knows) our odds will continue to rise.

gtwintotal

gtsched