From The Rumble Seat: All Posts by Joey WeaverDrinkin' whiskey clear since 2008.https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/52811/From_The_Rumble_Seat_Minimal.0..png2022-11-27T08:00:00-05:00https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/authors/joey-weaver/rss2022-11-27T08:00:00-05:002022-11-27T08:00:00-05:00Weaver: Georgia Tech should hire Brent Key as Head Coach
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<img alt="NCAA Football: Miami at Georgia Tech" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2_kNzFSukY-HvLwtzhsX_OYi1CA=/0x0:3105x2070/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71678293/usa_today_19417445.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>It’s time for J Batt to make his decision, and it’s clear what the Yellow Jackets’ program needs.</p> <p id="ovwPYx">With the 2022 season mercifully coming to an end, it’s time for the announcement that we’ve all been waiting for since <a href="https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/georgia-tech-football/2022/9/25/23358638/georgia-tech-football-head-coach-geoff-collins-has-been-relieved-of-duties">Geoff Collins’ firing in late September</a>.</p>
<p id="jKYCBG">It’s time for J Batt to make it official, remove the interim tag, and announce Brent Key as <a href="https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com">Georgia Tech</a>’s next head football coach.</p>
<p id="aUtfDu">It’s Occam’s Razor – the easiest decision, and the right one. Here’s why:</p>
<h3 id="gaxVsx"><strong>Consistency, Familiarity, and Retention</strong></h3>
<p id="Pqz4K1">Retaining Brent Key as head coach on the Flats is the surest way to avoid a “gap year” and gives the team the best chance at success in 2023. Key has been with the program since early 2019, helped to recruit the roster, and is intimately familiar with the players – not only their skillsets, but also things that are much more difficult for a new coach to get a read on like what motivates them, their family dynamics, the team’s chemistry and culture, and so forth. He’s seen what works and what doesn’t with different players. He knows their history with the Georgia Tech program, and what was (or wasn’t) promised to them. He knows what they have been taught by their coaches over the last few years, and will ensure minimal transition in translating things like scheme and terminology.</p>
<p id="lhSYQS">The players are also familiar with Key and any assistants that he would retain, and really know what they would be “getting into” by remaining a part of this program. There’s a major aspect of the unknown when a new coaching staff comes in, and fear of that unknown would be expected to lead players to let their eyes wander towards the transfer portal. (Sure, moving to a different program brings its own set of unknowns, but the players also have some familiarity with coaching staffs at other schools from their high school recruitment. Georgia Tech bringing in a totally new coaching staff likely would mean that players had little to no familiarity with anyone on that new staff.) Retaining the current coaching staff is the best way to minimize the losses that the team will inevitably see to the transfer portal. (More on that later.)</p>
<h3 id="FwqEPJ"><strong>Instant Impact</strong></h3>
<p id="tunfC2">When Key took over following the dismissal of Geoff Collins, there was an immediate improvement in the way that the Yellow Jackets looked on the field. I’m not sure that the advanced metrics show a significant improvement, but my eyes saw a more confident, tougher, higher-performing team than the one that we had seen in prior weeks and years. That increased level of confidence and competence was in all three phases of the game:</p>
<ul>
<li id="9cy6bk">We immediately saw a team that was previously defined by special teams gaffes look buttoned-up and effective in almost every situation.</li>
<li id="nYskUw">We saw immediate improvement and a new sense of toughness from a defense that often looked soft, was consistently inconsistent, and generally was ineffective.</li>
<li id="4vnPWS">We saw improvement in the defensive scheme, game planning, and play calling from its coordinator who was inexplicably retained after the 2021 season. (It turns out that Thacker may not have been the problem with the defense, after all.)</li>
<li id="hpdFoW">We saw an offense that has shown cohesive, sensible game plans each week and has continued to evolve as injuries have required personnel changes (including both of the top two quarterbacks going down with injuries).</li>
</ul>
<p id="4H5orm">The difference that I saw in the same players and the same coaching staff, after only four days of practice between Collins’ dismissal and the Pittsburgh game, was striking. It is not the kind of difference that I would expect anyone to be able to make in less than a week.</p>
<p id="8nmKbH">Perhaps this level of improvement is mostly (or totally) driven by emotion, and players wanting to win for Brent Key. If so, it would not be something that could sustain a team or coaching staff over a full offseason, much less the next several seasons. On the other hand, I would argue that it speaks to a level of organization and accountability that Key has used in leading the program, and which was lacking from its head coach over the last few years.</p>
<h3 id="L3CtSt"><strong>Pedigree Translates to Buy-In</strong></h3>
<p id="960GFm">Brent Key brings a strong pedigree that has primed him for a head coaching role. He previously spent time in his career as an assistant for two of the sport’s most accomplished head coaches over the last quarter-century, George O’Leary and Nick Saban. Key’s experience watching and participating in the operations of O’Leary and Saban is no doubt part of the reason that he is able to effectively command respect from players and cultivate belief in his team.</p>
<p id="iSpCsm">Over the past few weeks, there has been an outpouring of support for Key as Georgia Tech’s next head coach from numerous individuals whose direct contributions are critical to this team and program’s success. Players and their parents have been active on social media, campaigning for Key to be made the full-time head coach. High school coaches from around the state are supportive of Key and his vision, which makes a major difference in ability to recruit. Opposing coaches around the ACC have spoken highly about the impact that Key has made over the last two months. Hell, even Kirby Smart expressed his admiration for the job that Key has done.</p>
<p id="f2R2xd">Key’s ability to generate buy-in and belief is significant, and not in small part because there have been results to back up that buy-in.</p>
<h3 id="48ZH4d"><strong>Financial Benefit</strong></h3>
<p id="U4GMvy">It would be remiss to discuss the benefits of Georgia Tech hiring Brent Key full-time without discussing the financial benefit to doing so. It is widely believed that Key would be hired at a “below market” rate, offering some savings to <a href="https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/2021/5/31/22460827/georgia-tech-football-show-me-the-money-athletics-ncaa-finances-money-cash-ncaa-funding-public-money">Georgia Tech’s financially strained athletic department</a> while new AD J Batt gets various fundraising operations in place and producing. Key’s contract would likely be favorable to Georgia Tech, limiting the financial burden on the program if Batt were to elect to move on after the next few seasons. Retaining Key would also likely involve retention of at least some of the current staff members, which would save additional money that would almost certainly be spent on buyouts if a new staff were brought in.</p>
<p id="6AoKvb">The savings on Key’s contract and limiting assistant buyouts could be reinvested into the program, either in terms of hiring somewhat more “premium” coordinators (early 2010’s Clemson is the first example that comes to anyone’s mind here, but a more recent example would be Arkansas under Sam Pittman) or in continuing to build out a recruiting/NIL infrastructure that sets the football program up for long-term success. Either way, it would be a more sensible investment to spend the money on people and programs that are actively bringing value to the football program, as opposed to spending that money for people to take their talents elsewhere.</p>
<h3 id="XtoBIo"><strong>Don’t Overthink This</strong></h3>
<p id="bkL6G3">It’s been a fun ride and a true joy watching Brent Key live his dream as Georgia Tech’s head coach over the last couple of months, and the team has undoubtedly played hard for him. The wins that his team has been able to achieve have impressed throughout the fanbase as well as the entire college football landscape.</p>
<p id="GXlfaz">At this point, it’s time to think about setting this program up for success over the next several years, and spending heavily to put the program’s future in the hands of someone lacks familiarity with the school and roster, and who has never coached a game at the Power-5 level is shortsighted, risky, and dangerous.</p>
<p id="DdOoep">Georgia Tech’s next head coach needs to be someone who commands respect, has the love of his players, has worked under high-performing head coaches in the past, and who would make the most financial sense for the athletic department. Brent Key checks every box, and the best path forward is obvious:</p>
<p id="fMWs8x"><strong>Georgia Tech needs Brent Key as its next head coach.</strong></p>
<p id="ykzpej"><em>Unless…</em></p>
<p id="lLIdol"><em>You know….</em></p>
<p id="sKjiV5"><a href="https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/georgia-tech-football/2022/11/27/23475311/georgia-tech-should-hire-jamey-chadwell-as-head-coach-j-batt-brent-key"><em>Georgia Tech needs Jamey Chadwell as its next head coach</em></a><em> instead?</em></p>
<p id="BptlDQ"><em>For more on Georgia Tech football, and ACC Football in general, subscribe to Basketball Conference: The ACC Football Podcast on </em><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/basketball-conference-the-acc-football-podcast/id1136517941"><em>iTunes</em></a><em>, </em><a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/6kRws7hPPgTSsDop9vOgEn?si=h6ApZYFNR7i3CJvL83Y5Rg"><em>Spotify</em></a><em>, </em><a href="https://www.youtube.com/@theaccfootballpodcast"><em>YouTube</em></a><em>, or anywhere that you get your podcasts.</em></p>
<div id="9vZy8Y"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 152px; position: relative;"><iframe src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/show/6kRws7hPPgTSsDop9vOgEn?utm_source=oembed" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; border: 0;" allowfullscreen="" allow="clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture;"></iframe></div></div>
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https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/georgia-tech-football/2022/11/27/23475147/georgia-tech-should-hire-brent-key-as-head-coach-column-j-batt-jamey-chadwellJoey Weaver2022-11-27T08:00:00-05:002022-11-27T08:00:00-05:00Weaver: Georgia Tech should hire Jamey Chadwell as Head Coach
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<img alt="Coastal Carolina v Marshall" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/rpFYy-bNWktsJ857K9yyV33BGHw=/0x0:4832x3221/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71678278/1437602510.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>It’s time for J Batt to make his decision, and it’s clear what the Yellow Jackets’ program needs.</p> <p id="TlDuyi">With the 2022 season mercifully coming to an end, it’s time for the announcement that we’ve all been waiting for since <a href="https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/georgia-tech-football/2022/9/25/23358638/georgia-tech-football-head-coach-geoff-collins-has-been-relieved-of-duties">Geoff Collins’ firing in late September</a>.</p>
<p id="xQ98Jr">It’s time for J Batt to make it official and announce Jamey Chadwell as <a href="https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com">Georgia Tech</a>’s next head football coach.</p>
<p id="KmhUaj">It’s Occam’s Razor – the easiest decision, and the right one. Hell, there’s a reason he was picked first overall in the <a href="https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/2022/6/13/23158977/ftrs-head-coach-mock-draft">FTRS (Hypothetical) Head Coach Mock Draft</a> several months back. Here’s why:</p>
<h3 id="hltfBc"><strong>Track Record of Success</strong></h3>
<p id="tQmHn2">Chadwell has been a head coach for almost all of the last 13 years in the southeast. He’s compiled a 22- 14 record in three years at D-II North Greenville, a 35-14 record in four years at FCS Charleston Southern, and a 39-20 record (so far) in his last four years as full-time head coach at Coastal Carolina. (I’m not counting his 3-9 season as Coastal Carolina’s interim head coach in 2017, which was the Chanticleers’ first full season in the FBS, and in which he stood while Joe Moglia was on medical leave the entire season. If you still want to count that season against Chadwell after all of that context, more power to you.)</p>
<p id="1qSQWi">Chadwell has won everywhere he’s been for any meaningful amount of time, even when you consider the tough first year his programs have had to endure. The level of consistent success that he’s built over the last three years in a very competitive Sun Belt is <em><strong>not</strong></em> something to be ignored – the Chanticleers are 31-4 (20-3), set to play for their second Sun Belt Championship, and on pace for their second ranked finish during that span. Chadwell also won multiple National Coach of the Year awards after the Chanticleers’ 2020 season.</p>
<p id="d48RcJ">While it’s fair to think that winning at the G5 level doesn’t necessarily mean it will translate to winning in the ACC, winning consistently across different levels of football does seem to be something that translates to the Power-5 – just look at what Lance Leipold (who won 6 – yes, SIX – Division III National Championships at Wisconsin-Whitewater) has been able to accomplish in six years at Buffalo and in only two years at a previously hapless Kansas program.</p>
<h3 id="ogsdCl"><strong>Offensive Prowess</strong></h3>
<p id="cqTI77">If you knew the name Jamey Chadwell before reading this column, you probably had heard that he runs an option-based offense at Coastal Carolina. If you knew that, and you were also vehemently opposed to hiring Chadwell, you were probably picturing an offense that looks a lot like Paul Johnson’s flexbone option offense that we saw at Georgia Tech from 2008-2018.</p>
<p id="xZP5uw">Saying that the offense Chadwell runs is option-based is correct, but you tell me – does this formation look like a play that we saw Paul Johnson’s offense ever run?</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/hiR0bMMh-MTI2lO-uoteZtVpqew=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24223079/chadwell1.jpg">
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<p id="YSoQNE">Of course not – we essentially never saw Paul Johnson’s offense come out in a shotgun formation, nor did it ever seem to involve motion from one of the wide receivers.</p>
<p id="7RmRmb">How about this one?</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/5KXYToVRrxChKv29IIsC-6QSxcw=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24223086/chadwell2.jpg">
</figure>
<p id="XO64W7">…and, I guess this one does have some similarities, between the positioning of the H-Back and the orbit motion?</p>
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<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/9QSSUlv8zggwpFPJiYzyy8qswAU=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24223088/chadwell3.jpg">
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<p id="gTZHKK">All three of those formations set up triple option plays. Yes, Chadwell runs an offense that uses a lot of the same guiding principles that Paul Johnson’s offense used. No, they are not the same offense. The Chanticleers have attempted at least 24 passes in 8 of 10 games so far this year – Paul Johnson’s offenses last attempted 24+ passes against Virginia in October of 2015.</p>
<p id="R2RRLO">Chadwell’s offenses finished top-10 in SP+ in 2020 (9th) and 2021 (6th). At the time of this writing, they’re 40th in offensive SP+ in 2022 – not quite as dazzling, but that’s with third-year starting QB Grayson McCall missing time as he’s dealt with injuries for part of the year. (It’s also still a major upgrade on Georgia Tech’s 105th-ranked offense, and would be the second-best offense in the ACC Coastal Division this year.)</p>
<p id="cax37Z">Put simply, Chadwell’s offenses are productive, exciting to watch, and <em>unique</em>. Having a schematic advantage on offense is a clear path to winning on the field in today’s world of college football, especially for teams that are not regularly at a talent advantage over their opponents</p>
<h3 id="2Y42Xu"><strong>Scouting and Evaluation</strong></h3>
<p id="IiqbM4">Coastal Carolina’s recruiting rankings under Chadwell aren’t blowing anyone away, but their scouting and evaluation processes are very well respected within the industry. Bud Elliott of 247Sports (one of the media’s experts on recruiting) recently remarked on the Cover 3 Podcast that there are several teams around the southeast who keep close tabs on scholarship offers that Coastal Carolina gives out, indicating that they’re consistently on the tip of the spear when it comes to finding talented players. </p>
<p id="a2Gfcp">Assuming that’s true, this is directly related to suppressed recruiting rankings, in that the players that Coastal is finding are probably not well-scouted by major recruiting services (meaning individual player rankings aren’t high), and that higher-profile programs are swooping in and getting credit for signing players that Coastal identified.</p>
<p id="mSeZO7">That narrative has played out on the field as well — players that Coastal does sign also seem to punch above their recruiting rankings on a regular basis. Look no further than McCall, who was a two-star recruit out of high school with only one other FBS offer (from Army). After redshirting as a true freshman, he’s since been two-time Sun Belt player of the year, compiled a 74-7 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions, and is getting attention as a potential <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/nfl-draft">NFL Draft</a> pick.</p>
<p id="7B0gLe">It’s clear that Georgia Tech has some <a href="https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/2022/9/27/23374495/georgia-tech-head-coaching-job-geoff-collins-todd-stansbury-fired-candidates">institutional constructs that limit the program’s ceiling in recruiting</a> both players from high school and out of the transfer portal. Properly counteracting those constructs to sustainably build a roster at Georgia Tech that’s on par with (or better than) other opponents in the ACC starts with a sharp eye in scouting and evaluation, and continues with proven player development. Chadwell’s track record of says he’ll bring both of those capabilities with him as head coach.</p>
<h3 id="NqrMFn"><strong>Don’t Overthink This</strong></h3>
<p id="wJAygN">It’s been a fun ride and a true joy watching Brent Key live his dream as Georgia Tech’s head coach over the last couple of months, and the team has undoubtedly played hard for him. But you can’t hire a coach purely because his opponent’s All American wide receiver inexplicably dropped a likely game-winning touchdown at the end of a game.</p>
<p id="PxxqQ5">At this point, it’s time to think about setting this program up for success over the next several years, and putting the program’s future in the hands of someone whose head coaching career began two months ago is shortsighted, risky, and dangerous.</p>
<p id="sghQ4v">Georgia Tech’s next head coach needs to be someone with a proven track record, who will restore a sense of unique offensive identity, and whose skills match most closely with what the program requires to be successful. Chadwell checks every box, and the best path forward is obvious:</p>
<p id="MBoLh8"><strong>Georgia Tech needs Jamey Chadwell as its next head coach.</strong></p>
<p id="SuGHpu"><em>Unless…</em></p>
<p id="5ZYWC1"><em>You know….</em></p>
<p id="LOK9ff"><a href="https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/georgia-tech-football/2022/11/27/23475147/georgia-tech-should-hire-brent-key-as-head-coach-column-j-batt-jamey-chadwell"><em>Georgia Tech needs Brent Key as its next head coach</em></a><em> instead?</em></p>
<p id="BptlDQ"><em>For more on Georgia Tech football, and ACC Football in general, subscribe to Basketball Conference: The ACC Football Podcast on </em><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/basketball-conference-the-acc-football-podcast/id1136517941"><em>iTunes</em></a><em>, </em><a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/6kRws7hPPgTSsDop9vOgEn?si=h6ApZYFNR7i3CJvL83Y5Rg"><em>Spotify</em></a><em>, </em><a href="https://www.youtube.com/@theaccfootballpodcast"><em>YouTube</em></a><em>, or anywhere that you get your podcasts.</em></p>
<div id="9vZy8Y"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 152px; position: relative;"><iframe src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/show/6kRws7hPPgTSsDop9vOgEn?utm_source=oembed" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; border: 0;" allowfullscreen="" allow="clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture;"></iframe></div></div>
https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/georgia-tech-football/2022/11/27/23475311/georgia-tech-should-hire-jamey-chadwell-as-head-coach-j-batt-brent-keyJoey Weaver2022-09-27T09:15:00-04:002022-09-27T09:15:00-04:00The Georgia Tech Head Coaching Job Probably Isn’t What You Think It Is
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<img alt="NCAA Football: Mississippi at Georgia Tech" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/reCpKPHo3NRGm051Mb3osmZXkFo=/0x0:3438x2292/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71420775/usa_today_19065107.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Let's clear up a couple of misconceptions about how difficult the job is, and why Geoff Collins failed on the Flats.</p> <p id="8IbMXm">Geoff Collins’ tenure as <a href="https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com">Georgia Tech</a>’s head coach recently came to an end following a 27-10 loss to a flawed UCF team, leaving his final record as head coach on the Flats at 10-28.</p>
<p id="d3tPhz">As with any coach being fired, there’s been some resulting discourse about the job that is now open and how attractive it will be to potential candidates who may be targeted to fill the opening. A significant amount of this discourse from the national media has seemed to paint Collins as something of a victim – someone who didn’t understand “what he was getting into”, who suffered from a “lack of institutional alignment”, and who just wasn’t able to “connect to the city and its culture”. The implication of all of this is to suggest that Collins’ failure in Atlanta isn’t uniquely his, and should/will serve as a cautionary tale to any candidates who may consider taking the job next.</p>
<p id="8Jw2rm">Looking at the Georgia Tech job at this moment in time and calling it one where most coaches would be unable to win is a misinformed view at best, and downright misleading at worst.</p>
<p id="OYopF3">To be clear, we should make sure to define the term “win” in this context. In some places, to “win” means to win conference or national championships with some level of consistency. If that’s your definition, then the analysis from the national media is correct – Georgia Tech is not a place in 2022 (or the foreseeable future) where a coach would reasonably be able to “win”.</p>
<p id="o8fxYI">On the other hand, what does the base of Georgia Tech alumni, boosters, and fans think it means to “win”? Your mileage may vary as someone in that grouping of personally invested individuals, but my guess would be that a majority of the fan base would be fully content with winning 7-9 games most years, never missing a bowl game, and legitimately competing for ACC Championships and <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/orange-bowl">Orange Bowl</a> berths once or twice per decade.</p>
<p id="IiyWKm">(Need proof? Go look back at the Paul Johnson tenure that directly preceded Collins’, and recall that there was still a considerable portion of the fanbase that was content with keeping Johnson at the time that he announced his retirement.)</p>
<p id="BfGp05">(No, I’m not here to re-litigate the whole Paul Johnson saga. I’m just saying that the results he produced were good enough to avoid overwhelming calls for his job for a long time.)</p>
<p id="mrtUhA">So, when we make sure that expectations are calibrated to what the Georgia Tech job is at this point and will likely be for the foreseeable future, and when we avoid falling into the trap of thinking that Georgia Tech should have similar expectations to the other <em>very different</em> P5 programs in the surrounding areas, yes, this is a job where a decent hire can reasonably be expected to come in and “win”.</p>
<p id="uY5KuH">Georgia Tech is not a “sleeping giant” program at this point for a number of reasons, many of which no head football coach would be able to change. Is there “institutional misalignment” and are there issues with the Georgia Tech administration “deciding what it wants to be”? Sure. Those issues have been present for at least 15 years, and are unlikely to be completely resolved in the foreseeable future. Are there perception issues for Georgia Tech (both as a football program and as a school in general) within the Atlanta area and the state of Georgia? Absolutely. Those issues have been present for a long, long time and will probably never be totally eliminated.</p>
<p id="zLFSAI">Those issues are the types of things that limit Georgia Tech’s ceiling as a program. They’re the reason that Georgia Tech will likely never win another national championship. They’re the reason that Georgia Tech will likely never consistently beat their biggest in-state rival again.</p>
<p id="0ZUCur">Those issues are not the reason that Geoff Collins failed at Georgia Tech.</p>
<p id="VWtf84">Collins’ failure resulted from unforced errors off the field, where over-promotion and over-promising was effectively writing huge checks that his program was going to struggle to ever be able to cash. (Spoiler: those checks bounced early and often on-the-field.)</p>
<p id="rSvIHt">Collins’ failure resulted from hiring and retaining a coaching staff for three full years, half of whom were holdovers from his 2018 staff at Temple, and most of whom had minimal or no experience coaching at the Power-5 level. He hired an offensive coordinator who was previously an OC at the FCS level before two years as OC for underwhelming Temple offenses. He hired a defensive coordinator who had one year of experience as a DC at Temple, following 4 years as a position coach at the G5/FCS levels. There has been minimal (if any) indication that these hires were just the “best we could do” with the resources available. (He waited three years to fire the OC. He never fired the DC.)</p>
<p id="rutkrq">Collins’ failure resulted from his inexperienced, underqualified, yet hand-picked coaching staff being unable to show any meaningful amount of player development (especially at QB) and regularly getting out-schemed. His teams were characterized by major inconsistency, a lack of accountability, and countless mental mistakes that never got fixed. For all of his talk of “putting the ball down” and “competing”, Collins’ teams have been mentally and emotionally fragile, often folding early in games when things go wrong and resulting in some cartoonish blowouts.</p>
<p id="Fi6UVY">The issues that exist with Georgia Tech as an institution and athletic program limit its ceiling as a program. The issues that resulted in Geoff Collins’ firing were of his own making. The school’s administration and athletic association being “misaligned” aren’t the reason that Georgia Tech has allowed 4 punts to be blocked already this year. The styrofoam Waffle House cups and promotion of the area code not being enough to “connect with the city” aren’t the reason <a href="https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/2021/11/4/22760135/explaining-the-inexplicable-geoff-collins-andrew-thacker-nathan-burton-jeff-popovich-secondary">a seasoned, talented secondary was inexplicably dysfunctional in 2021</a>. Whatever “lack of modernization” is present within the program is certainly not the reason that one of Georgia Tech’s most prominent donors was left wondering <a href="https://www.ajc.com/sports/georgia-tech/prominent-georgia-tech-donors-revisit-their-optimistic-preseason-projections/U2SFNRLSAFGVXPJDX5HE7U4PIU/">“Why is [Defensive Coordinator Andrew] Thacker still here?”</a> at the end of last season.</p>
<p id="iT5XoU">Winning big as the head coach at Georgia Tech is significantly tougher than numerous folks seem to realize, nationally. It’s not as simple as, “they’re in Atlanta, look at all the talent nearby, they should have one of the best rosters in the country”.</p>
<p id="I3pgOz">Winning to a degree that meets expectations of the alumni, boosters, and fans? That’s much more attainable. Any middle-of-the-road recruiting staff can build a solid Power-5 roster by leveraging the depth of talent in the state and region, even without being able to compete for many of the top-end players on the recruiting trail. Developing that talent to play within an effective scheme is what’s required to be successful at Georgia Tech, and so much of that can be done by the next coaching staff that enters the program in the coming months.</p>
<p id="wpDhxH">Georgia Tech isn’t damaged goods, and Geoff Collins’ failure should not be considered some sort of warning sign to others out there. It’s a program with a blueprint for being successful in the context of its own modern expectations – a blueprint that can be seen in Collins’ predecessor, in many ways. The success of the program moving forward will not be a result of its limitations, but by the ability of the next staff to do the most fundamental thing that Collins’ regime was unable to do, and the thing that they will be asked to do by their most basic job titles – COACH.</p>
<p id="BptlDQ"><em>For more on the Geoff Collins firing, Georgia Tech football, and ACC Football in general, subscribe to Basketball Conference: The ACC Football Podcast on </em><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/basketball-conference-the-acc-football-podcast/id1136517941"><em>iTunes</em></a><em>, </em><a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/6kRws7hPPgTSsDop9vOgEn?si=h6ApZYFNR7i3CJvL83Y5Rg"><em>Spotify</em></a><em>, or anywhere that you get your podcasts.</em></p>
<div id="9vZy8Y"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 152px; position: relative;"><iframe src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/show/6kRws7hPPgTSsDop9vOgEn?utm_source=oembed" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; border: 0;" allowfullscreen="" allow="clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture;"></iframe></div></div>
https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/2022/9/27/23374495/georgia-tech-head-coaching-job-geoff-collins-todd-stansbury-fired-candidatesJoey Weaver2021-12-14T10:00:00-05:002021-12-14T10:00:00-05:00Despite a Lack of Involvement, the 2021 “Coaching Carousel” is Teaching Us Something About Georgia Tech
<figure>
<img alt="NCAA Football: Georgia Tech at Clemson" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/zUBuWT2TaIZBUdyo6YrpVvb5uLU=/0x0:3282x2188/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70269178/usa_today_16777290.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Adam Hagy-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There’s a lot to be learned by watching the actions of other athletic programs.</p> <p id="nT8f7j">While we can never truly say “never” as it relates to college football coach hiring and firing, at this point in the process, it seems as though Georgia Tech will not be moving on from Geoff Collins and participating in this year’s college football coaching carousel (at least as it relates to head coaches).</p>
<p id="NoEE5w">Though, if Tech somehow were to fire Collins in the next few days, it would hardly be the most surprising aspect of this year’s coaching carousel rendition. That’s not to say it wouldn’t be somewhere between surprising and shocking — it’s more to say that this year’s carousel has been downright bonkers.</p>
<p id="C4w1OQ">If you haven’t been keeping up over the past 2-3 weeks, it means two things:</p>
<ol>
<li id="bWQQe0">Your phone battery and data plan are probably in better shape than mine after all of the constant Twitter refreshing I’ve been doing.</li>
<li id="VLfXSs">You may not realize that we’re learning something significant about Georgia Tech, even amidst the relative quiet surrounding the Flats as it relates to a head coaching search.</li>
</ol>
<p id="rvVecW">A considerable part of what has made the past few weeks so crazy are the levels of jobs that coaches are leaving to go to other jobs. </p>
<ul>
<li id="kpoOIG">Lincoln Riley left Oklahoma, easily one of the top-10 jobs in the country and a four-time College Football Playoff participant, for USC.</li>
<li id="XYzMgC">Brian Kelly left Notre Dame, roughly a top-10 job and a two-time College Football Playoff participant where he just recently became the all-time winningest coach, for LSU.</li>
<li id="kYGCPv">Mario Cristobal left Oregon, roughly a top-15 job where he’d built them into a perennial Pac-12 powerhouse and narrowly missed a Playoff berth in two of the past three seasons, for Miami.</li>
</ul>
<p id="Roy4D9">Those moves, of course, all had one thing in common: those coaches received downright absurd contracts at their landing spots. What exactly makes them “absurd”, you ask? Of those three, Cristobal appears to be getting the smallest, least lucrative deal — <a href="https://www.si.com/college/2021/12/06/mario-cristobal-contract-with-miami-is-for-ten-years">he’ll reportedly be making a mere $8 million per year</a>. Meanwhile, Brian Kelly is <a href="https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/brian-kelly-contract-details-lsu-notre-dame/22ip4ln3y64919gqrlkop2cc7">set to make $9.5 million annually, plus incentives</a>. The cash involved in these contracts is only part of what’s in play, too:</p>
<div id="7epBFV">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Lincoln Riley USC contract details (not confirmed; best I could do):<br>- $110 million<br>- USC buying both his homes in Norman for $500,000 over asking ($1 million bonus)<br>- Buying a $6 million home in LA for him<br>- Unlimited use of the private jet 24/7 for family<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Sooners?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Sooners</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Trojans?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Trojans</a></p>— Robert Hefner V (@RobertHefnerV) <a href="https://twitter.com/RobertHefnerV/status/1465419950911365125?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 29, 2021</a>
</blockquote>
<script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div>
<p id="QbGz2P">But it’s not just what we’re learning from coaches leaving for new jobs — some of it is from coaches specifically remaining in place:</p>
<ul>
<li id="rhha5g">Texas A&M’s Jimbo Fisher <a href="https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/sports/texas-am-votes-to-extend-fishers-contract-through-2031/2733150/">had his contract extended</a> through the 2031 season, resulting in an annual salary that will start at $9 million per year this coming January before annual increases follow.</li>
<li id="eYOjxp">Penn State’s James Franklin likewise <a href="https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/james-franklin-contract-details-penn-state/6z947o0ibeo41423isnzurv13">had his contract extended</a> through the 2031 season, where he’ll be paid a starting salary of $7 million annually before any incentives are incorporated.</li>
<li id="WDinAw">Michigan State’s Mel Tucker just finished his third season as a head coach since leaving Kirby Smart’s staff following the 2018 season, and <a href="https://www.freep.com/story/sports/college/michigan-state/spartans/2021/11/29/michigan-state-football-mel-tucker-contract-extension-details-no-new-buyout/8800227002/">received a contract extension</a> through the 2031 season that will effectively pay him $9.5 million per year in salary before any incentives are added.</li>
</ul>
<p id="SlYwYI">The point is, that’s six coaches at six different schools who received contracts (or contract extensions) that would have been considered pretty unthinkable in terms of years and committed dollars just 3-4 years ago.</p>
<p id="OpBgdp">Hell, we’ve even seen a coordinator change employers with a staggering dollar figure involved. Oklahoma State DC Jim Knowles (who you may remember as the long-time architect of David Cutcliffe’s overperforming defenses at Duke) <a href="https://twitter.com/MarshallLevy14/status/1468360303188586498">spurned a 5-year, $1.3 million-per-year contract extension</a> in Stillwater to become Ohio State’s new defensive coordinator for roughly $2 million per year.</p>
<p id="KMFdX7">(Speaking of coordinators, long-time Clemson DC Brent Venables also left his position to take the Oklahoma HC job vacated by Riley, where <a href="https://twitter.com/jasonkersey/status/1469325614192771073">he’ll make significantly more</a> than the $2.5 million per year that he was set to make through 2026 following a <a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheathletic.com%2Fnews%2Fclemsons-brent-venables-signs-extension-through-2026-will-make-25m-per-year%2FT1oQMVk0g1y8%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fromtherumbleseat.com%2F2021%2F12%2F14%2F22826176%2Fdespite-a-lack-of-involvement-the-2021-coaching-carousel-is-teaching-us-something-about-georgia-tech" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">contract extension this past summer</a>. Clemson figures to be able to pay his replacement at least $2 million per year.)</p>
<p id="3xfUsB">You may also notice that none of the schools I’ve mentioned are the likes of Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Michigan, Texas, or even our most hated rivals in Athens — all of whom we can agree have budgets that exceed that of Georgia Tech’s.</p>
<p id="eZVjjI">Which brings me to my point — for better or worse, Georgia Tech hasn’t participated in this year’s coaching carousel, but we’ve still learned something about the Yellow Jackets by watching the moves being made by others. Put simply, while there have long been programs that Georgia Tech has been unable to keep up with resource-wise, it’s becoming painfully obvious that the number of programs who fit that bill is increasing drastically.</p>
<p id="a5I1MP">As Yellow Jacket fans are well aware by now, while the schools above are giving out the contracts listed above, Georgia Tech’s ability to fire Geoff Collins and move on has been somewhat <a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheathletic.com%2F2972042%2F2021%2F11%2F22%2Fschultz-georgia-techs-geoff-collins-under-fire-but-buyout-makes-firing-unlikely%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fromtherumbleseat.com%2F2021%2F12%2F14%2F22826176%2Fdespite-a-lack-of-involvement-the-2021-coaching-carousel-is-teaching-us-something-about-georgia-tech" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">tied to the inability (or unwillingness) to pay a $12 million buyout</a>. While healthy, that buyout pales in comparison to some of those that have been paid by other programs in recent years.</p>
<ul>
<li id="f7nPWo">Before hiring Kelly, LSU <a href="https://www.wafb.com/2021/10/19/breaking-down-details-behind-separation-agreement-between-lsu-coach-o/#:~:text=LSU%20will%20pay%20Orgeron%20his,payment%20is%20scheduled%20for%202025.">agreed to pay Ed Orgeron his full buyout of $16.8 million</a>, and that doesn’t include assistants.</li>
<li id="XXMFou">Last year saw Auburn infamously agree to pay Gus Malzahn’s <a href="https://www.al.com/auburnfootball/2021/01/how-much-does-auburn-owe-gus-malzahn-and-former-staff-in-buyouts.html">incredible $21.45 million buyout</a> (also not including the assistants who had to be bought out), including half of that amount <em>in cash within 30 days</em>.</li>
</ul>
<p id="0ZzSFs">Again, in not making the move after this season’s results, Georgia Tech is telling us that they doesn’t have those levels of resources available. Maybe that’s from a lack of a mega-donor like Oregon’s Phil Knight or the late T. Boone Pickens for Oklahoma State. Maybe it’s related to the ACC’s underwhelming TV deal. Maybe it stems from issues surrounding ticket sales. It likely is related to <a href="https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/2021/5/31/22460827/georgia-tech-football-show-me-the-money-athletics-ncaa-finances-money-cash-ncaa-funding-public-money">the incredible amount of Georgia Tech’s annual athletics’ budget that goes to paying off debt</a>. Whatever the reason, Yellow Jackets fans everywhere get to watch more and more teams and programs every year throw around crazy dollar figures on coaching contracts that we know Georgia Tech cannot match.</p>
<p id="RYDWYf">Instead, they’ll continue to pay Collins’ salary into 2022, where he figures to be paid around $3.3 million. The real concern becomes what happens afterwards. When looking for a new coach, the Yellow Jackets won’t be able to afford contracts anywhere near what numerous programs are now giving out. We’ve long known that Georgia Tech wasn’t the richest Athletic Department around, but the size of the contracts being given out mentioned above are likely at least double what the next coach on the Flats is able to make — that’s an enormous gap that will almost certainly never close, and which will significantly impact the level of head coach, coordinators, and other staff that the Yellow Jackets are able to hire and retain.</p>
<p id="HhcBDb">Unless something drastically changes, Georgia Tech will continue falling farther behind more programs in terms of financial resources they’re able to commit to football. As that happens, they’ll continue to fall farther behind on the field from those same programs.</p>
<p id="Hev6pp">So, what might something drastically changing look like?</p>
<ul>
<li id="pySfjo">
<strong>The ACC improves its TV deal substantially. </strong>As currently constituted, the ACC’s television deal (mainly with ESPN) isn’t terrible, but isn’t great either. The ACC Network has been somewhat helpful, but not entirely. Having the ACC Network now included with Comcast should be a noticeable bump, but to truly make a difference would require a much larger change. Something like....Notre Dame joining the conference, perhaps?</li>
<li id="Im2NO6">
<strong>The GTAA’s debt is paid off. </strong>Again, Georgia Tech is currently spending upwards of $13 million annually purely on debt payments, good for around 14% of its entire operating budget. It’s more than they spend on scholarships, and is roughly 70% of what is spent on coaching salaries. That’s an ENORMOUS chunk of money that’s not accomplishing anything besides keeping the GTAA out of bankruptcy. That debt going away would instantly add over $13 million per year to the bottom line and could be used on coaching salaries, facilities upgrades, or other useful purposes. It wouldn’t all be allocated towards football, but it’s not crazy to think that a healthy chunk would be.</li>
<li id="k759Rr">
<strong>Georgia Tech’s Athletic Scholarships are fully endowed. </strong>As it currently stands, the GTAA does not have athletic scholarships fully endowed across the entire athletic portfolio, meaning there is operational expenditure each year (in an amount similar to the debt payments mentioned above) that is going towards making sure that Georgia Tech can offer the full allotment of scholarships for each of its 17 varsity athletics programs. This expenditure is shrinking after some progress was made during the AI2020 fundraiser, but the problem has not been fully solved. Those scholarships being fully endowed would free up millions of dollars that could be allocated towards keeping up with others.</li>
<li id="PK4me3">
<strong>Georgia Tech finds a mega-donor. </strong>Depending on who you ask, somewhere between 15-40% of Georgia Tech grads are “millionaires”. (I’ve seen 1 out of 6. I’ve seen 2 out of 5. So....who knows?) How many of those millionaires have to exist before one becomes a billionaire, and how many billionaires have to exist before one cares a lot about the Institute’s athletic performance? I’m just asking questions here.</li>
</ul>
<p id="m68Sc7">None of the above are impossible, but they also haven’t happened yet. Georgia Tech will continue feeling negative impacts to on-field results against those programs that are out-pacing them resource-wise until something changes. Here’s to hoping that change comes before it’s too late.</p>
https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/2021/12/14/22826176/despite-a-lack-of-involvement-the-2021-coaching-carousel-is-teaching-us-something-about-georgia-techJoey Weaver2021-11-04T14:30:00-04:002021-11-04T14:30:00-04:00Explaining the Inexplicable
<figure>
<img alt="NCAA Football: Georgia Tech at Virginia" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/5tXLrMQ66-4VxCWYiFViwNWCsu4=/0x0:4563x3042/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70094837/usa_today_17016397.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There’s a not-great phenomenon we’re seeing on the Yellow Jackets’ defense.</p> <p id="emv6rg">There are two position groupings on a football team that far-and-away benefit from more time and reps of playing together — the offensive line, and the secondary.</p>
<p id="f94bKs">In that sense, even before we consider the time it takes to acquire the right body types and develop them in the strength and conditioning program, it’s understandable that <a href="https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com">Georgia Tech</a>’s offensive line is still far from a finished product in Year 3 under Geoff Collins.</p>
<p id="UOhgtl">What’s less understandable is when a group like Georgia Tech’s secondary, which has seen incredible continuity throughout the Collins era and is arguably its single most talented position group on the roster, seemingly has gotten worse year-over-year. Even more baffling is that it’s happening under a head coach whose background is as a good defensive coordinator, and <em>specifically</em> one who had a strong track record of developing defensive backs prior to his arrival on the Flats.</p>
<p id="uprwXS">Take a look at the individuals who made up the starting lineup (or were the most Above the Line, or whatever we’re going with at this point) for Collins’ first game as the Yellow Jackets’ head coach against Clemson in September of 2019:</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/XLU6n0nPP-snEdXN8OnG5zePVVo=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22980801/GTSecondary.jpg">
</figure>
<p id="koyNP4">Of the five individuals who started in the secondary in Collins’ first game at Georgia Tech, four of them are still with the program and saw significant time in Collins’ 30th game as head coach against <a href="https://www.gobblercountry.com/">Virginia Tech</a> this past weekend. That’s great continuity!</p>
<p id="Q1qvWJ">So why is it, then, that in Year 3, with so many familiar faces, in a position grouping that benefits from continuity, we’re seeing images like this on an increasingly common basis?</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/kpu4Wk4S2xC0FZD3E1jcR1ALXQ8=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22982988/GTSecondary2.jpg">
</figure>
<p id="wEKWIg">It’s happened in each of the last four games where there are miscommunications or misunderstandings that result in receivers running wide open, easy throws, big gains, extended drives, and points on the board for Georgia Tech’s opponents.</p>
<p id="crjCY0">It’s not just one or two plays per game, either. In the first 26 games under Collins, only TWICE did the Yellow Jackets’ defense give up 9+ yards per passing attempt in games where they saw opponents attempt at least 20 passes — UCF in 2020, and Clemson in 2020.</p>
<p id="0Jun9w">That mark of 9 yards per attempt, with a minimum of 20 attempts? It’s been surpassed now by <em><strong>four straight opponents</strong></em>. In 2021 contests against Pittsburgh, Duke, Virginia, and Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech’s defense has allowed a combined 67.2% completion for 1,341 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, only 1 interception, and all to the tune of 10.01 yards per pass attempt. (For context, only one FBS team is giving up more than 10.01 yards per attempt for the entire season, and it’s UMass.) The past four games have been, by far, the worst stretch of passing defense games that the team has had in the Collins era. For this to be occurring, with such a talented and experienced unit, is pretty inexplicable and frustrating to watch.</p>
<p id="fhId4Q">Georgia Tech’s pass defense struggles aren’t exclusively the secondary’s responsibility, as the defensive front has also struggled in a big way to create pressure on quarterbacks during the same 4-game stretch. Over the last 4 games, the defense playing for the head coach whose nickname was historically the “Minister of Mayhem” has come up with 5 total sacks. Your mileage may vary on whether 1.25 sacks per game constitutes “mayhem” or not.</p>
<p id="zUe4Cv">Unfortunately, the lack of pressure doesn’t explain receivers running free shortly after the start of plays — again, that’s on the defensive backfield.</p>
<p id="xRPhKD">Now, this is the part in the column where you may be thinking that I’m a jerk for blaming the players for these performances. As always, if you think I blame the players for any of this, you’d be wrong. I believe that the players are doing their best and giving their best efforts, and are fully committed to playing as well as they know how to.</p>
<p id="jT05zD">Once again, as with so many issues we’ve seen throughout the Collins era, this comes down to coaching issues.</p>
<p id="wKi1Ti">There are four coaches that have some level of responsibility for the success of the secondary — Collins, DC Andrew Thacker, Co-DC/Safeties Coach Nate Burton, and Cornerbacks Coach Jeff Popovich. That brain trust has spent nearly 3 calendar years working with this unit, whose personnel is (again) arguably the most talented group on the roster, and whose continuity has been as good as anyone has asked for. The result? A group that’s getting shredded worse than they ever have before, looks confused on where to be, and seems to be having issues that are getting worse instead of better.</p>
<p id="8j7SLu">The yards and points that this group is surrendering aren’t because they’re going against players who are bigger, faster, or stronger than them. They’re not because the Yellow Jackets’ players aren’t trying. It’s some combination of scheme, teaching, personnel groupings, and maybe even accountability that is resulting in the issues occurring, and each of those are things that fall on the coaching staff to own and drive.</p>
<p id="WCpcTg">I don’t know what type of teaching or direction the players are getting, what communication styles or language they’re being taught, or even if the scheme is just too complicated to try and run with college players who have a limited amount of practice time that they’re allowed in between their studies and other commitments. What I do know is that the four grown men listed above are paid far higher salaries than most of us will ever make to guide a group of players in a fashion that gets results better than they’re getting recently.</p>
<p id="uJXRwh">If that doesn’t change soon, we should hope that there’s a change in (at least some of) the individuals responsible.</p>
<p id="z35oRP"><em>Get more of my thoughts on Georgia Tech’s loss to Virginia Tech, their upcoming matchup with Miami, and all of the other action across the ACC by subscribing to Basketball Conference: The ACC Football Podcast on </em><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/basketball-conference-the-acc-football-podcast/id1136517941"><em>iTunes</em></a><em>, </em><a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/6kRws7hPPgTSsDop9vOgEn?si=X4bAqM4rTt-AFD_8PW9Urg&dl_branch=1"><em>Spotify</em></a><em>, or anywhere else you normally find podcasts.</em></p>
<div id="3zghwQ"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 152px; position: relative;"><iframe src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/show/6kRws7hPPgTSsDop9vOgEn?utm_source=oembed" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; border: 0;" allowfullscreen="" allow="encrypted-media;"></iframe></div></div>
https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/2021/11/4/22760135/explaining-the-inexplicable-geoff-collins-andrew-thacker-nathan-burton-jeff-popovich-secondaryJoey Weaver2021-10-22T14:15:00-04:002021-10-22T14:15:00-04:005 Things on Geoff Collins’ 2021 Second-Half To-Do List
<figure>
<img alt="COLLEGE FOOTBALL: OCT 02 Pitt at Georgia Tech" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/aI_z943Flc9RhKLYsxN6n9KuKG4=/0x0:2446x1631/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70032289/1235655846.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Georgia Tech may not win many more games this year, but there’s still some clear ways that they can show us improvement.</p> <p id="oT3TAP">We’re halfway through Georgia Tech’s 2021 football season, and to say it’s been a roller coaster ride might not do it justice. The <a href="https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/georgia-tech-football/2021/9/8/22660683/were-in-the-endgame-now-geoff-collins">incredible low</a> of losing an assumed layup against Northern Illinois to start the season was followed up by three straight impressive performances that had fans <a href="https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/georgia-tech-football/2021/9/29/22696219/proof-of-concept-for-geoff-collins-north-carolina-unc-pittsburgh">riding high</a>...only to be brought <a href="https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/georgia-tech-football/2021/10/6/22708387/two-steps-forward-one-step-back-coaching-game-plan-georgia-tech-geoff-collins">crashing back down to Earth</a> by a blowout against Pittsburgh, before finishing up with what I might call a “disappointing win” against Duke two weeks ago. (The result was what we hoped for — the disappointment was in that the path to getting there was far bumpier than it needed to be.)</p>
<p id="nC4xCZ">So, following a bye week, where does that leave us as Georgia Tech enters the second half of its season?</p>
<p id="iXV8nJ">We have seen some development within the program from last year so far this year, but there’s plenty of growth that this season will hopefully involve. Here’s 5 things to keep an eye on down the stretch as we continue to seek signs of development from Geoff Collins, his coaching staff, and their Georgia Tech program.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="wlypDw">
<h2 id="3WUeQ2">#1 - More Pressure on Opposing Quarterbacks</h2>
<p id="8jskV5">In the win over North Carolina, the Yellow Jackets sacked Sam Howell an incredible 8 times.</p>
<p id="R4ojpn">In their other 5 games, Georgia Tech has managed a grand total of 4 sacks. (Removing Kennesaw State, in 4 non-UNC games against FBS teams, they have managed 2 sacks.)</p>
<p id="hmnhYx">So far this season, we’ve seen the defense use 3 different defensive base sets (a 4-2-5, a 3-3-5, and a 4-3 against Kennesaw State) to varying degrees of success at different points in games. Aside from the onslaught of pressure against North Carolina, these sets have largely struggled to put any sense of consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks. A lack of pressure makes things much more comfortable for those opposing quarterbacks, and will inevitably end up in good secondaries getting shredded.</p>
<p id="ikEGlI">Adding Keion White to the pass rusher mix should be a major boost, but the issues here go beyond any one player. Whether it’s adjusting which defensive front is being used, changing up personnel groupings in certain situation, sending blitzes from different angles, or anything else, the defensive coaching staff needs to show an ability to generate pressure and disrupt opposing quarterbacks through the rest of this season.</p>
<p id="hoBmNp">I’ll be watching to see if the sack counts and pressure rates improve over the next few weeks as a signal for whether the defensive coaching is working.</p>
<h2 id="2iohb0">#2 - Clearer Identity on Offense, Leading to More Sustained Drives</h2>
<p id="q9pXON">Perhaps the most frustrating thing to watch in the previous two games, for me, has been the inability to get Jahmyr Gibbs going in the run game. For a running back of his talent level to go for a combined 24 carries for 30 yards in those two games is hard to stomach. But, Gibbs’ stat line is just a symptom of a larger problem that I see.</p>
<p id="XP7AkT">In the last 3 games, Georgia Tech’s offense has produced just two offensive possessions that included 10+ plays and ended in scoring points. They’ve scored on plenty of possessions in that time, but almost entirely on shorter, quicker possessions. Why? They rely too much on big plays, and haven’t shown the ability to consistently move the ball. If they don’t hit a big play, there’s a good chance the drive is going to stall out almost immediately. Against Pittsburgh and Duke, Georgia Tech’s offense had the ball 26 times. Of those, 14 possessions (~54%) ended in 5 plays or less without points being scored. Not only is the lack of points bad for the offense, and not only does this negatively impact the field position battle, but putting the defense back on the field after minimal rest is yet another negative effect that this has on the Jackets’ chances to win.</p>
<p id="vamwfd">This struggle to get drives started, like Gibbs’ poor stat lines, is related to a lack of identity on offense. There are clearly things that this team does well, as we’ve seen numerous times so far this season. (Just look at Gibbs’ receiving line the past two games — when he gets the ball in space, he’s racked up 207 yards and a touchdown on only 9 touches.) There are also things that they don’t do well, which recently has included running the ball between the tackles, especially when opposing defenses are loading the box. I couldn’t begin to explain why they continue doing things that don’t work well, but it speaks to a lack of identity in scheme and playcalling.</p>
<p id="GJiiBE">The thing to keep an eye on here, data-wise, is how well Georgia Tech can sustain drives. Cut down on the three-and-outs, and even if possessions still come up empty in terms of scoring, just picking up a couple of first downs on most drives will make a major impact on the team’s chances to win games.</p>
<p id="KvqVne"><em>Note: This weekend’s opponent, UVA, has an offense that is pretty horrendous when it comes to the traditional run game. Watch how little they use it, and instead how much they do what they’re best at — passing. That’s an identity.</em></p>
<h2 id="SmHi2H">#3 - Reduce Jeff Sims’ Turnovers</h2>
<p id="sNZUVE">After a freshman campaign where he showed some flashes of high potential as a quarterback in the ACC, the biggest knock on Sims was that he turned the ball over too much. It was fair criticism — as a passer, he threw 13 interceptions on the season out of 257 passing attempts, for an interception rate of 5.1%. (That’s an interception once every 20 passes, roughly.) That’s too high.</p>
<p id="5NIqHg">So far this year, Sims has thrown 4 interceptions on 80 attempts, for an interception rate of....5.0%. (That’s an interception once every 20 passes, exactly!)</p>
<p id="hBouB6">The goal should be to cut that interception rate in half. For reference, last year the ACC saw Trevor Lawrence, Phil Jurkovec, D’Eriq King, Sam Hartman, and Sam Howell all finish with interception rates of less than 2.1%. It’s not necessarily fair to expect Jeff Sims to match or exceed a list of quarterbacks that will include multiple first-round NFL Draft picks as a second-year starter, but the point is that an interception rate of around 2.5% is very attainable, and bringing the turnover rate down will make a huge difference in the team’s ability to keep games close or win them outright.</p>
<p id="clm9Q1">(Then again, Jurkovec, Howell, and Hartman were all second-year starters at most last year....and isn’t Geoff Collins’ staff selling that they’re developing their roster into NFL-caliber players? Just food for thought.)</p>
<p id="pgRUi9">I’ll say this too — some of this interception issue lies with Sims’ teammates, including the offensive linemen who protect him and the intended receivers on the other end of those passes. The interceptions to date have not been entirely Sims’ fault in every case, so this item should not be taken as one that’s focused on one player, but rather on the offensive scheme and execution as a whole.</p>
<h2 id="ZCFXVN">#4 - Stop Getting Blown Out by ACC Teams</h2>
<p id="3zehs2">Look — getting blown out by Notre Dame or georgia would suck, but we’d understand. Those are more talented programs that are capable of blowouts over most teams in the country. (This may actually not apply with how Notre Dame has played so far this year, but just roll with it for now, especially considering the game will be played in South Bend.)</p>
<p id="pA4gZD">On the other hand, Georgia Tech has games remaining against four ACC programs that they need to <a href="https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/2021/9/15/22670229/its-time-to-lose-small">lose small</a> against, at minimum. Current SP+ ratings would favor UVA (45), Virginia Tech (49), Miami (26), and Boston College (35) to win over Georgia Tech (57) on a neutral field, but will likely favor the Jackets against Virginia Tech next week. Losing these games would be one thing — getting blown out would be another. These are programs that Georgia Tech needs to play close games against in order to illustrate development in Year 3.</p>
<p id="yXvtuj">But, before you dismiss Georgia Tech getting blown out by those teams as a reasonable possibility, consider this — the Yellow Jackets have not shown a consistent track record of playing close games (win or lose) under Geoff Collins.</p>
<div id="XGoyO3">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Fun fact: Geoff Collins has been Georgia Tech's head coach for 21 conference games (including Notre Dame last year).<br><br>6 of them have finished within 1 score. The other 15 were decided by double digits, whether the Jackets won or lost.</p>— Spookily Vaccinated Joey (@FTRSJoey) <a href="https://twitter.com/FTRSJoey/status/1451556941390561312?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 22, 2021</a>
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<p id="dpYozV">For whatever reason, Geoff Collins’ Georgia Tech program has produced a strong track record of playing in games that have already been decided midway through the fourth quarter. There’s rarely late drama. We’ve seen close games this year against Clemson and Duke, but prior to those, the last ACC opponent that they played to within a single score (win or lose) was the season-opening 13-10 win over Florida State last year.</p>
<p id="anPgvk">They’ve blown out some teams, but they’ve gotten blown out far more frequently.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">In conference games decided by double digits, Georgia Tech under Geoff Collins has gone...<br><br>2019: 0-5<br>2020: 2-6<br>2021: 1-1<br><br>Overall: 3-12 <a href="https://t.co/241f0SgCro">https://t.co/241f0SgCro</a></p>— Spookily Vaccinated Joey (@FTRSJoey) <a href="https://twitter.com/FTRSJoey/status/1451568265843679237?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 22, 2021</a>
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<p id="RT0rlF">Again, it’s time for this team to lose small. That means not getting blown out by middling, flawed conference opponents. The Panthers may be poised to win the Coastal Division, but the Pittsburgh blowout was cause for concern. No additional losses by more than 10 points in the final 4 conference games would be a positive sign of development.</p>
<h2 id="bsZ7yM">#5 - Win 2+ Games, Finish 5-7 or Better</h2>
<p id="pDdtk0">This was the measuring stick coming into the season. With a tough schedule in front of them, we wanted to see Georgia Tech finish 5-7 at minimum to feel good about the direction of the program. Do that, and avoid being on the business end of any more blowouts against conference opponents, and there will be reason for optimism heading into Geoff Collins’ Year 4 in 2022.</p>
<p id="qdSFa3">It’s attainable, too — the final 4 ACC opponents on the schedule are all flawed (at best), and games will be there for winning if the game plans make sense, the execution follows, and in-game adjustments are able to be made. I would also argue that despite a 5-1 record and a #13 ranking, Notre Dame is a potentially winnable game too, even in South Bend. The Irish have hardly been impressive so far this year and are beatable if the Yellow Jackets can play a complete game.</p>
<p id="A3jZUV">The Jackets need to win twice over the next 6 games to keep pace with expectations.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="57KsRB">
<p id="I6NSUI">It’s important that we continue to keep everything in perspective as it relates to this program’s development, but that doesn’t mean excusing every failure. Even in losses, there are opportunities to show development that would point towards program building. The next 4-5 games are an important stretch for this coaching staff — this is their chance to set the narrative heading into the offseason and looking towards 2022.</p>
<p id="sTEaOE"><em>Get more of my thoughts on Georgia Tech’s upcoming game against Virginia and all of the other action across the ACC on Basketball Conference: The ACC Football Podcast on </em><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/basketball-conference-the-acc-football-podcast/id1136517941"><em>iTunes</em></a><em>, </em><a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/6kRws7hPPgTSsDop9vOgEn?si=X4bAqM4rTt-AFD_8PW9Urg&dl_branch=1"><em>Spotify</em></a><em>, or anywhere else you normally find podcasts.</em></p>
<div id="dbl8UD"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 152px; position: relative;"><iframe src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/show/6kRws7hPPgTSsDop9vOgEn?utm_source=oembed" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; border: 0;" allowfullscreen="" allow="encrypted-media;"></iframe></div></div>
https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/2021/10/22/22736411/5-things-on-geoff-collins-2021-second-half-to-do-listJoey Weaver2021-10-06T15:00:00-04:002021-10-06T15:00:00-04:00Two Steps Forward, One Step Back
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<img alt="COLLEGE FOOTBALL: OCT 05 North Carolina at Georgia Tech" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/mkDoObnpNq_SRsojIRK5iXzfbpg=/0x0:2680x1787/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/69960669/1173882992.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Development of this program is taking a long time, and some of it may be related to ongoing development within this coaching staff.</p> <p id="nzqt0u">In hilariously predictable fashion, just days after I (and several other members of the staff here at FTRS) told you that <a href="https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/georgia-tech-football/2021/9/29/22696219/proof-of-concept-for-geoff-collins-north-carolina-unc-pittsburgh">Georgia Tech and Geoff Collins had shown Proof of Concept</a> in a huge blowout win over a ranked North Carolina team, they got blown out on their own field by a Pittsburgh team that who was two weeks removed from losing to a MAC team on <em>their</em> own field.</p>
<p id="to5UGP">The win over North Carolina was a great moment, but the bigger thing about the win that represented Proof of Concept to me was the fact that Georgia Tech had played a good, complete game for the third time in a row. That consistency was the thing that was strikingly different about this team that we hadn’t seen over several games in a row in the previous two years under Geoff Collins. It wasn’t always perfect or pretty in those three games, and they scored single-digit points and lost in one of them, but context and the eye test would tell you that they played well on both sides of the ball in each game.</p>
<p id="Qfp3EM">I mentioned on the Basketball Conference Week 5 Preview show that, as a well-versed Georgia Tech and Atlanta sports fan, I found myself unsure of what to expect from the Yellow Jackets against Pittsburgh, largely in that I felt like I was just constantly left waiting on the other shoe to drop.</p>
<p id="ZbRkCw">I’m not sure what kind of shoe it was that dropped on Saturday, but I do suspect that shoes had something to do with it given all of the slipping that players on both sides were doing all over Grant Field, yet again. (That was mostly a joke, but not entirely. Let’s put a pin in that particular conversation and come back to it sometime in the future.)</p>
<p id="DcGL4u">As with so many of the other losses to date since 2019, this one fell on Georgia Tech’s coaching staff. Pittsburgh is a dangerous but flawed team, and there is a clear way to attack them:</p>
<ul>
<li id="jyeAz3">On offense, trying to run the ball against their defensive front is a fool’s errand — the last time they allowed even 5 yards per carry against anyone was in September of 2019 against a Penn State team that finished 11-2 and won the Cotton Bowl. (In the two previous matchups, Georgia Tech averaged a paltry 2.97 and 3.38 yards per carry.) On the other hand, their secondary is decidedly vulnerable to giving up big plays, just as they did plenty of times in a close win over Tennessee and a loss to Western Michigan in recent weeks.</li>
<li id="Eq0Z0c">On defense, you’re preparing to face a Pittsburgh offense that has shown an astounding level of ineptitude at running the ball since hiring OC Mark Whipple before the 2019 season. In his 28 games as Pitt’s OC coming into Saturday, the Panthers had run for even 5 yards per carry only 4 times. (In 2018, the year before his hiring, the Panthers did this 6 times.) Conversely, their offense has succeeded most under Whipple by using what I’ll term a “volume passing attack”. It relies largely on a series of shorter passes to move the ball and has shown limited passing explosiveness, historically.</li>
</ul>
<p id="busU8e">So, the strategy here should have been to limit the reliance on the run game and focus on attacking the perimeter on offense, and to focus on trying to contain Pitt’s passing attack until they made mistakes while handling their run game with the defensive front needing minimal support. Simple enough! What did they do?</p>
<ul>
<li id="411aJt">In a game where they spent a majority of the time trailing by multiple scores, the Yellow Jackets still ran the ball 29 times for only 95 yards, as compared to passing 35 times for an impressive 337 yards. (Stats are sack-adjusted.) There were three possessions where Georgia Tech had a first down at Pitt’s 30-yard line or closer and came away with no points, and there were three turnovers on downs — two of which ended with a fourth-and-short handoff up the middle that got stuffed. Perhaps the most damning number was the stat line of Georgia Tech’s most dynamic player, Jahmyr Gibbs, who finished with 10 carries for -10 yards. Regardless of anything else, when a player like Gibbs is handed the ball 10 times and comes up with negative yardage, something is broken in the game plan or scheme.</li>
<li id="cFb8lB">Defensively, they continued use of the 3-3-5 alignment that had worked well the previous two weeks against Clemson and UNC. Not the worst idea, but the 3-man front had considerable issues with creating pressure and holding down the Panthers’ run game. More concerning than the game plan here was the total lack of adjustment — there was no visible change during halftime or at any point in the game to more effectively slow down Pittsburgh’s attack. We know that the defense has practiced a 4-man front — it’s what they played against Northern Illinois and Kennesaw State. Why not try that to try and eliminate the run threat and help the secondary to just focus on the passing attack? Adding another player to the defensive line could have also helped to pressure Kenny Pickett and prevented receivers from ending up wide open several seconds after the snap.</li>
</ul>
<p id="fzPJRy">The game plan was questionable at best, and no visible adjustments were made. Maybe there are excuses to be made surrounding health of the team, but the bottom line is that the team lost because the coaches didn’t put them in position to win. Jeff Sims had arguably the best passing performance we’ve seen from a Georgia Tech QB in 15 years, and the team got blown out anyways because of everything else that happened.</p>
<p id="MbANqH">My Basketball Conference co-host Mike McDaniel reminded me in our Week 5 recap that this isn’t the first time there’s been an obvious game plan for Georgia Tech to follow, they strayed from it, and got blown out. (Again — running tempo against Clemson last year <a href="https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/2021/9/15/22670229/its-time-to-lose-small">wasn’t the best idea</a>.) It’s at the point where I sometimes begin to wonder if there’s some sort of hubris among this coaching staff that leads them to believe that the team is talented and well-coached enough that they can ignore their opponents’ strengths and weaknesses, focusing only on what their own team normally does well. That’s not a smart way to approach coaching a team at any level, much less for a team that isn’t playing with an overwhelming talent advantage most weeks as their rivals in Athens do.</p>
<p id="5i2CcB">The Yellow Jackets travel to Durham this weekend for a matchup with a Duke team fresh off a blowout by their rivals from UNC. The Blue Devils will most likely focus on running the ball with Mataeo Durant on offense, and (similar to Pittsburgh) are much better at defending the run than the pass. Georgia Tech’s coaches would be wise to plan on trying to continue building Jeff Sims’ momentum in the passing game, and to focus on stopping the run defensively. Keep an eye out to see how they approach things in the first quarter, and if it’s not working, pay attention to see if there are in-game adjustments made to fix what’s ailing them.</p>
<p id="Y7nuwg">Collins has now seen the Yellow Jackets through 27 games across 2.5 years, and (as Chris Paschal <a href="https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/2021/10/5/22710640/tuesday-thoughts-10-5-please-just-figure-it-out">pointed out</a>) through that whole time, they haven’t yet won back-to-back games once. Success has always been followed up with failure. That’s a tough pattern that this program is going to need to break. We need to see evidence that they can break that pattern before this season is over. It starts with effective game planning.</p>
<p id="z35oRP"><em>Get more of my thoughts on Georgia Tech’s loss to Pittsburgh, their upcoming matchup with Duke, and all of the other action across the ACC by subscribing to Basketball Conference: The ACC Football Podcast on </em><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/basketball-conference-the-acc-football-podcast/id1136517941"><em>iTunes</em></a><em>, </em><a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/6kRws7hPPgTSsDop9vOgEn?si=X4bAqM4rTt-AFD_8PW9Urg&dl_branch=1"><em>Spotify</em></a><em>, or anywhere else you normally find podcasts.</em></p>
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https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/georgia-tech-football/2021/10/6/22708387/two-steps-forward-one-step-back-coaching-game-plan-georgia-tech-geoff-collinsJoey Weaver2021-09-29T10:00:00-04:002021-09-29T10:00:00-04:00Proof of Concept for Geoff Collins
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<img alt="NCAA Football: North Carolina at Georgia Tech" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/5pNQMpXK_CHFLiNXDVQM9OOO2wg=/0x0:3961x2641/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/69925496/usa_today_16830468.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Saturday’s win was bigger than just one game.</p> <p id="meqkq6">On Saturday night at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, we watched <a href="https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com">Georgia Tech</a> score 32 points in the second half to blow out a ranked North Carolina team that was picked to win the Coastal Division before the season. It was a great win to be sure, but perhaps more importantly was what the win represented for Geoff Collins, his staff, and their tenure on the Flats.</p>
<p id="SYwX8K">There were elements present within the game and box score that naysayers could use to say that the win was “lucky” — the Yellow Jackets were +3 in turnovers after recovering all of the game’s fumbles, they still gave up over 300 passing yards on a solid 7.8 yards per attempt, and the offense was only 3/11 on third downs.</p>
<p id="MZUb69">Make no mistake though — Georgia Tech’s win was not a result of luck, nor was it a fluke.</p>
<p id="UpMgzi">What we saw on Saturday night was a defense that repeatedly got pressure without sending more than 4 pass rushers, a rejuvenated and confident-looking Jeff Sims, a physical rushing attack, and game plans on both sides of the ball that made sense and were executed effectively. Not only that, but the level of competency that we saw was very similar to what we saw the two weeks prior against Kennesaw State and Clemson. Most importantly, what we saw was Proof of Concept for Geoff Collins at Georgia Tech.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">reports of Geoff Collins' demise may have been premature <a href="https://t.co/CnxBbCOxuu">https://t.co/CnxBbCOxuu</a></p>— Fully Vaccinated Joey (@FTRSJoey) <a href="https://twitter.com/FTRSJoey/status/1441962795919101952?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 26, 2021</a>
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<p id="iew3tp">The last three performances by this team are a sign that Collins’ plan is working, and that the program is, indeed, developing under the current regime. This does not mean that the build is complete, or that the team has arrived into its final form. There is still more to be done, and it will take more than this season to realize this program’s potential under the current regime.</p>
<p id="OmNGXq">The most significant thing that we’re beginning to see, though, is a certain level of consistency. Since Collins took over and began this rebuilding process, there have been individual moments and performances that have looked impressive from one angle or another — getting wins over Miami and <a href="https://www.backingthepack.com/">NC State</a> in 2019, winning on the road against <a href="https://www.tomahawknation.com/">Florida State</a> to open last year, or scoring a combined 102 points in wins over Louisville and Duke later in 2020. The problem was, those wins were often luck-aided and tucked in between less-inspiring performances that left us wondering why they couldn’t happen more often.</p>
<p id="DAh4FE">Where the 2021 edition of this team has been different is that after a season-opening loss to NIU, they have now strung together three straight solid, complete performances (including two in a row against ranked opponents) in a way that they hadn’t done in the previous two seasons. That indicates to me that the terrible loss to NIU was the outlier — not the near-miss against the six-time defending ACC Champion <a href="https://www.shakinthesouthland.com">Clemson Tigers</a> or the subsequent win over the preseason Coastal Division favorite Tar Heels.</p>
<p id="V1iCb9">As mentioned, the build is not yet complete. With eight games left on the schedule, there are plenty of opportunities to continue to gauge where the program is at. We’ve now seen on the field the level of play that they’re capable of — the question now becomes whether that level of play can be sustained. Georgia Tech is due to play a Pittsburgh team this weekend that has a super-senior quarterback (he’ll be making his 44th career start and will almost certainly finish the season with over 10,000 career passing yards), but a team that has proven to be flawed — one-dimensional on offense and prone to giving up big plays on defense. Despite Georgia Tech opening as a small underdog (Pitt is currently favored by 3.5 points, as I write this) and having lost five of their last six in this series, this is a very winnable game, and another performance like we’ve seen the past three weeks should end up with another Yellow Jackets win.</p>
<p id="2PhSz6">Regardless of the outcome this weekend, if they’re able to continue showing Proof of Concept, Georgia Tech may make a bowl game in 2021 after all, and the outlook on the program will be very positive as we look to future seasons.</p>
<p id="05GiWK">And, well, if that ends up being the case...</p>
<p id="f433Q1">I’ll never have been happier to have had to eat <a href="https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/georgia-tech-football/2021/9/8/22660683/were-in-the-endgame-now-geoff-collins">my own words</a>.</p>
<p id="sTEaOE"><em>Get more of my thoughts on Georgia Tech’s win over North Carolina, their upcoming matchup with Pittsburgh, and all of the other action across the ACC on Basketball Conference: The ACC Football Podcast on </em><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/basketball-conference-the-acc-football-podcast/id1136517941"><em>iTunes</em></a><em>, </em><a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/6kRws7hPPgTSsDop9vOgEn?si=X4bAqM4rTt-AFD_8PW9Urg&dl_branch=1"><em>Spotify</em></a><em>, or anywhere else you normally find podcasts.</em></p>
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https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/georgia-tech-football/2021/9/29/22696219/proof-of-concept-for-geoff-collins-north-carolina-unc-pittsburghJoey Weaver2021-09-22T10:00:00-04:002021-09-22T10:00:00-04:00Deciding What to Believe
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<img alt="NCAA Football: Georgia Tech at Clemson" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/HoR4g_qK9NTf6diSV3tZer9gBrk=/0x0:2505x1670/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/69892823/usa_today_16799032.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Adam Hagy-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>With what we’ve seen so far this season, I’m getting less sure of what to think.</p> <p id="ADPRZZ">We’re only 3 weeks into the 2021 college football season, and it’s already showing signs of being one of the stranger seasons in recent history. The first week saw several surprising upsets by FCS teams, including a ranked Washington team going down to Montana. <a href="https://www.landgrantholyland.com">Ohio State</a> lost at home as a double-digit favorite, dropping a game in The Horseshoe for the first time since Baker Mayfield’s Oklahoma team won there four years earlier. Speaking of, the Sooners have had close calls at home as heavy favorites against Tulane and Nebraska. <a href="https://www.onefootdown.com">Notre Dame</a> had a close call at home as a heavy favorite against Toledo. Even within the ACC, long regarded nationwide for its stabile programs and consistent performances as a league (or...something like that), half of the league has already lost an out-of-conference game while favored:</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">TONIGHT: What do the following programs have in common?<br><br>Duke<br>Georgia Tech<br>Pittsburgh<br>Clemson<br>NC State<br>Florida State<br>Miami<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/goacc?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#goacc</a></p>— Basketball Conference: The ACC Football Podcast (@BCPodcastACC) <a href="https://twitter.com/BCPodcastACC/status/1439752441470275586?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 20, 2021</a>
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<p id="IUHkoo">Inconsistency from week-to-week has been a theme for countless teams across the country so far this season, and <a href="https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com">Georgia Tech</a> has been no exception. Through three weeks, the Yellow Jackets have lost a home game to the otherwise-winless NIU Huskies (ranked #114 by SP+), and have also gone toe-to-toe on the road for 60 minutes against the six-time defending conference champion <a href="https://www.shakinthesouthland.com">Clemson Tigers</a> (ranked #5 by SP+). In a 15-day span, we’ve seen one of this team’s worst performances under Geoff Collins, as well as arguably its best.</p>
<p id="CHuRad">If you have a good idea of what to make of all of that, I’m all ears, because I’m at a bit of a loss.</p>
<p id="8CIW4M">One of the Georgia Tech teams that we saw in those games is much more representative of the one that we’ll see for a majority of this season. Will they get pushed around in the trenches, struggle to communicate on defense, and miss opportunities on offense in the way that they did against Northern Illinois? Will they challenge opponents physically up front, play with confidence and composure, and effectively execute strong game plans as they did on Saturday in Death Valley? Time will tell, and it will have a major impact on the outcome of the season.</p>
<p id="8NxhkU">As the Yellow Jackets gear up to play North Carolina on Saturday, it’s worth mentioning that the Tar Heels have shown some considerable inconsistency themselves early this year. Their opening game against <a href="https://www.gobblercountry.com/">Virginia Tech</a> saw the Tar Heels get bullied around by the Hokies for 60 minutes. UNC was never able to get their offense in rhythm — they were unable to run the ball with any consistency, their largely-new corps of receivers struggled to get any separation downfield, and Sam Howell was sacked 6 times. Their defense also struggled mightily to get off the field (especially early in the game), and they turned the ball over 3 times.</p>
<p id="PAS71g">This past weekend, the Tar Heels hosted a Virginia team whose makeup seemed ripe for them to bully Carolina in the same way that the Hokies did two weeks prior. Instead, North Carolina did the bullying for much of the night — they owned the trenches, rushing for nearly 400 yards and allowing only 24 yards on the ground to the Cavaliers, they only allowed 1 sack to Sam Howell, they hit big plays consistently, and sacked Brennan Armstrong 3 times. They did give up over 500 passing yards, but a healthy chunk of those were in the second half as the Tar Heels protected double-digit leads.</p>
<p id="KNODs6">Just as Georgia Tech has been majorly inconsistent through through three games so far this year, so has North Carolina, and Saturday’s game will tell us a lot about who each team truly is. The Tar Heels are a better team with a better quarterback, and it’s a huge letdown spot for the Yellow Jackets, so there’s a reason that they’re favored by double digits on the road. (Georgia Tech is roughly a 12-point underdog, as I write this.) If last week’s performance against Clemson translates, the Jackets have a good shot to keep this game close, or win it outright. If that performance continues to translate beyond this weekend, they’ll have a great shot at making me eat <a href="https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/georgia-tech-football/2021/9/8/22660683/were-in-the-endgame-now-geoff-collins">my words from two weeks ago</a>. (To be clear, nothing would make me happier.)</p>
<p id="QPKEDV">We’ll learn a lot on Saturday about whether this program has truly taken a step forward in Year 3, or if last weekend’s near-upset was simply an aberration. As with last week, it’s not the “what” that matters — it’s the “how”. A win over North Carolina would be fantastic, but real signs of growth (or a lack thereof) will be seen in how the game unfolds.</p>
<p id="sTEaOE"><em>Get more of my thoughts on Georgia Tech’s near-miss against Clemson, their upcoming game against North Carolina, and all of the other action across the ACC on Basketball Conference: The ACC Football Podcast on </em><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/basketball-conference-the-acc-football-podcast/id1136517941"><em>iTunes</em></a><em>, </em><a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/6kRws7hPPgTSsDop9vOgEn?si=X4bAqM4rTt-AFD_8PW9Urg&dl_branch=1"><em>Spotify</em></a><em>, or anywhere else you normally find podcasts.</em></p>
<div id="4HNxBb"><div style="max-width: 660px;"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 450px; position: relative;"><iframe src="https://embed.podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/basketball-conference-the-acc-football-podcast/id1136517941" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; border: 0;" allowfullscreen="" allow="encrypted-media;"></iframe></div></div></div>
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https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/georgia-tech-football/2021/9/22/22683918/deciding-what-to-believe-north-carolina-unc-clemson-northern-illinois-niu-geoff-collinsJoey Weaver2021-09-15T10:00:00-04:002021-09-15T10:00:00-04:00It’s Time to Lose Small
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<img alt="NCAA Football: Clemson at Georgia Tech" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/N6OEb9Ww3k7RFzxw2f6BHmFu5WM=/56x0:3593x2358/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/69861215/usa_today_15080167.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Pool Photo-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>It doesn’t always have to be about the final score when looking for positive signs of development.</p> <p id="vAwAv8">There’s an old adage that’s used to describe the expected program trajectory when a coach is hired to take over a team that will require a rebuild: Lose Big, Lose Small, Win Small, Win Big.</p>
<p id="6hyRKW">Essentially, if this trajectory is followed, the first year will be especially brutal (often including a “youth movement” where freshmen and sophomores get a majority of the playing time) and the team might only win 1-2 games, if any at all. A majority of the losses will be blowouts, and will see a lot of opponents using backups in the fourth quarter. The eye test will probably show some improvement throughout the year, although the stats and scoreboards will not reflect that improvement in a noticeable way.</p>
<p id="ptj9AN">The second year, the team will win a few more games and may approach bowl eligibility. The signs of improvement will be visible everywhere, including on the scoreboard — the team that was previously getting blown out regularly is now in competitive situations late in most every game, even if they don’t end up pulling off a win. They may also pull an upset, or put a scare into a team that is a huge favorite. From there, year 3 likely involves making a bowl game, and year 4 is when you would expect to see a team approaching its peak and perhaps competing to win its division.</p>
<p id="CF5Slr">For an example of this within the ACC, look at what Bronco Mendenhall did after taking over for Mike London at Virginia: they went 2-10 in his first season, 6-7 in year 2 (including a couple of upsets to propel them to bowl eligibility), 8-5 in year 3 (with several close or OT losses), and won the Coastal Division before playing in the <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/orange-bowl">Orange Bowl</a> in year 4.</p>
<p id="G4IMzT">If we buy in to the idea that 2019 was Geoff Collins’ “Year 0” as head coach at <a href="https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com">Georgia Tech</a> (I do buy into that idea, for the record), then 2021 would be “Year 2”, which tells us that it’s time for Georgia Tech to Lose Small.</p>
<p id="nO6hSb">Now, to be clear, Losing Small does not consist of losing to everyone on the schedule — Losing Small means beating teams in games where you have a major talent advantage, and even winning one or more games where you have equal or slightly better talent.</p>
<p id="BIuuW3">However, in games where your team is very outgunned in terms of talent, Losing Small would imply keeping the game competitive for as long as possible and not having the other team absolutely wipe the floor with you for 60 minutes. This brings us to Georgia Tech’s upcoming game against Clemson.</p>
<p id="Scrzfy">In last year’s #WeirdCOVIDYear rendition of the Georgia Tech-Clemson rivalry, the Tigers led 52-7 at halftime before winning 73-7 in the most lopsided ACC game that either program had ever been a part of. While nobody in the ACC can feel disappointed that they lost to Clemson at this point, there was quite a bit of disappointment from the Georgia Tech fanbase at just how bad the scoreboard looked at the end of the game. (Not to mention Clemson adding insult to injury via their walk-on, fourth-string QB going 5-for-7 for 74 yards and 2 touchdowns in the fourth quarter.)</p>
<p id="vThNgi">While Clemson is still a <em>lot</em> better than Georgia Tech and was expected to win the game handily, part of the reason it got so out-of-hand was the Yellow Jackets’ offensive game plan.</p>
<p id="3vjqJY">When up against a major talent disadvantage, an offensive coordinator should aim to limit possessions, run the clock, and try to keep their own defense (and the opposing offense) off the field for as much time as possible. When the other team is so much better, giving them more plays and more chances with the ball only increases the probability that they’re going to demonstrate how much better they are. On the other hand, limiting possessions and burning clock means that if something randomly happens to your team’s benefit (a turnover, a broken play going for a touchdown, the other team muffs a punt, etc.), you’re maximizing the impact that random event has on the outcome of the game. That upside comes along with the added benefit of limiting the number of snaps that your own defense has to play (keeping them fresher), and also keeping the opponent’s offense off the field (limiting their ability to get into a rhythm). This is a well-known approach and is typically the strategy you’ll see a major underdog use in trying to pull an upset.</p>
<p id="jnkgKr">That’s why I was so confused and frustrated last year when Georgia Tech’s offense came out running up-tempo and throwing the ball on early downs — in doing so, they burned minimal clock, forced their defense to play more snaps, and gave Clemson as many opportunities as possible to score. The Tigers had the ball <em><strong>10 times in the first half</strong></em> and rewarded the Yellow Jackets with 7 touchdowns and a field goal. Their first five possessions even included two turnovers, and they <em><strong>still</strong></em> scored 52 points before halftime.</p>
<p id="qqcI13">Again, this was made possible in part by Georgia Tech doing everything in its power to maximize the number of opportunities Clemson had. The Yellow Jackets had the ball 10 times in the first half, and only one of those possessions burned more than 1:30 off the clock. Lining up, taking a knee three times and punting would allow a team to burn 2:00 of clock without even managing a first down. (I’m not advocating for that as an offensive strategy — just saying that Georgia Tech could burn more clock without having to sustain a drive.)</p>
<p id="EAIUAt">Georgia Tech opened this week as a 29-point underdog and will almost certainly lose to Clemson on Saturday. That’s okay — the Tigers haven’t lost to a normal in-conference opponent (not counting <a href="https://www.onefootdown.com">Notre Dame</a> last year) since a weird Friday night in Syracuse back in 2017, and have only even been made to taste their own blood a few times since then. However, when opponents have kept games close against Clemson, the game plans followed the game-shortening script mentioned above. In last year’s Boston College game, the Eagles limited Clemson to only 10 possessions, made two of their own possessions take up 12:55 of game clock (including a drive that lasted 5:13 and ended in a punt), and returned a fumble 97 yards for a touchdown. Clemson finally took their first lead with around 11:00 left in the game and ended up winning, but Boston College nearly pulled off the upset as a 31-point underdog.</p>
<p id="ezyT0D">Nobody should have any real expectations that the Yellow Jackets will pull an upset in this spot. (If they do pull the upset, that would be incredible for all involved! It’s just not fair to expect it.) The development point that we need to see from Geoff Collins’ Georgia Tech program on Saturday is a game plan that makes sense and keeps the game relatively close on the scoreboard into the second half. The offense should be waiting until late in the play clock to snap the ball, and should largely call for run plays or high-percentage throws that keep the clock moving, with a few deep shots mixed in. The defense should be noticeably aggressive, trying to confuse the Tigers’ offensive line and sophomore QB D.J. Uiagalelei, trying to generate negative plays, and trying to create turnovers. (That probably also results in some big plays for Clemson, but hey, shoot your shot.)</p>
<p id="1y7NjT">Overall, we need to see Georgia Tech come out with a game plan that is noticeably different than the ones they used against Northern Illinois and Kennesaw State, and different than the ones they will use against Pittsburgh, Virginia, or Boston College. This game is a different beast, and needs to be treated differently if the Yellow Jackets are to avoid another embarrassing final score.</p>
<p id="8PqmSU">They’re likely going to lose, and that’s okay — we just need to see them Lose Small.</p>
<p id="sTEaOE"><em>Get more of my thoughts on Georgia Tech’s win over Kennesaw State, their upcoming game against Clemson, and all of the other action across the ACC on Basketball Conference: The ACC Football Podcast on </em><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/basketball-conference-the-acc-football-podcast/id1136517941"><em>iTunes</em></a><em>, </em><a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/6kRws7hPPgTSsDop9vOgEn?si=X4bAqM4rTt-AFD_8PW9Urg&dl_branch=1"><em>Spotify</em></a><em>, or anywhere else you normally find podcasts.</em></p>
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https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/2021/9/15/22670229/its-time-to-lose-smallJoey Weaver