clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

The Binion Index Week 4

Hail Minnesota, the Mighty Three, and the Woeful ACC Coastal

By Robert Binion
/ new
NCAA Football: Minnesota at Michigan State Dale Young-USA TODAY Sports

National Headlines

  • Minnesota drubbed three meh teams but then cemented themselves at the top of the early season numbers by doing the same thing to Michigan State
  • After UGA struggled and Ohio State and Alabama rolled, the top three is in a dead heat
  • Utah and LSU look awesome despite opening week losses
  • Colorado is the worst P5 team by a mile

GT Check-In

  • 1 New Coach on the Way!
  • Current Record: 1-3
  • Current Ranking and Rating: 103rd, -8.5 rating
  • Record Expectations (based on underlying stats): 1.34-2.66
  • Future Expectations (based on TBI): 1.73-7.27
  • Final Projected Record: 2.73-9.27

Tracking the Model

The Binion Index had by far its best week of the year in Week 4. That was an encouraging rebound after a rough start and a good sign that our in-season numbers are on target.

We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.

The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of almost 50 different models. After two weeks, the Binion Index would be 36th overall ATS and 39th in absolute error.

Season to Date ATS: 47.0%

ATS Goal: >=55%

Season to Date Absolute Error: 13.9

Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5

Week 4 Ratings

Week 4 Ratings from TBI

Rank Team Week 4 Rating
Rank Team Week 4 Rating
1 Alabama 33.2
2 Georgia 32.9
3 Ohio State 32.8
4 Minnesota 29.3
5 Michigan 20.9
6 Utah 19.7
7 LSU 19.6
8 Oklahoma 17.1
9 Clemson 17
10 Mississippi State 16.3
11 Tennessee 15
12 Washington 14
13 Penn State 13
14 Oregon 12.2
15 TCU 11.5
16 Air Force 10.9
17 Cincinnati 10.5
18 Baylor 10.1
19 NC State 10.1
20 Pittsburgh 10
21 Florida State 9.9
22 Iowa State 9.8
23 BYU 9.5
24 Purdue 9.4
25 Wisconsin 9.4
26 Kentucky 9.2
27 Maryland 9.2
28 Oklahoma State 9.2
29 UAB 9.2
30 USC 9
31 Wake Forest 8.5
32 UCLA 8.4
33 Notre Dame 7.7
34 Tulsa 7.1
35 Kansas State 7
36 Ole Miss 6.8
37 Arkansas 6.6
38 Oregon State 6.4
39 Texas 6.4
40 Illinois 5.9
41 Western Kentucky 5.8
42 Miami 5.4
43 Florida 5.2
44 Texas A&M 5
45 Tulane 4.2
46 Fresno State 4.1
47 UCF 4
48 James Madison 3.7
49 Washington State 3.5
50 Louisville 3.2
51 SMU 3.2
52 Boise State 2.9
53 North Carolina 2.7
54 UT San Antonio 2.5
55 Army 2.2
56 Texas Tech 2.2
57 Appalachian State 1.7
58 East Carolina 1.4
59 Iowa 1.4
60 West Virginia 1.3
61 Georgia State 1.1
62 Michigan State 1.1
63 Nebraska 1
64 Toledo 0.8
65 Marshall 0.6
66 South Alabama 0.6
67 Houston 0.3
68 Missouri -0.1
69 South Carolina -0.1
70 Coastal Carolina -0.2
71 Syracuse -0.3
72 Auburn -0.6
73 Liberty -1.1
74 Louisiana -2.1
75 Troy -2.1
76 Virginia Tech -2.6
77 California -2.9
78 Kansas -2.9
79 Memphis -2.9
80 Indiana -3.1
81 Southern Mississippi -3.2
82 Virginia -3.6
83 Florida Atlantic -4
84 Miami (OH) -4.6
85 Central Michigan -5.1
86 Duke -5.2
87 San José State -5.2
88 Louisiana Monroe -5.5
89 Middle Tennessee -5.5
90 Stanford -6.1
91 Kent State -6.2
92 Georgia Southern -6.4
93 Boston College -6.5
94 Northwestern -6.5
95 Rice -6.6
96 Vanderbilt -7.5
97 Buffalo -7.8
98 Northern Illinois -7.8
99 North Texas -8.2
100 UNLV -8.2
101 Old Dominion -8.3
102 Western Michigan -8.4
103 Georgia Tech -8.5
104 Rutgers -8.7
105 South Florida -8.9
106 Texas State -9.1
107 Ball State -10.2
108 Arizona State -10.5
109 UTEP -10.5
110 Arizona -10.9
111 Temple -11.7
112 Ohio -12.4
113 San Diego State -12.4
114 Arkansas State -14.5
115 Wyoming -14.6
116 Utah State -16
117 Navy -16.4
118 Louisiana Tech -17.1
119 Charlotte -17.3
120 New Mexico -17.3
121 Colorado State -17.7
122 Eastern Michigan -18.1
123 New Mexico State -18.1
124 Nevada -18.7
125 Akron -20.4
126 Connecticut -20.6
127 UMass -21.4
128 Bowling Green -22.9
129 Hawai'i -22.9
130 Colorado -23.3
131 Florida International -24.3

Conference and Division Ratings

Loading comments...