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National Headlines
- Minnesota drubbed three meh teams but then cemented themselves at the top of the early season numbers by doing the same thing to Michigan State
- After UGA struggled and Ohio State and Alabama rolled, the top three is in a dead heat
- Utah and LSU look awesome despite opening week losses
- Colorado is the worst P5 team by a mile
GT Check-In
- 1 New Coach on the Way!
- Current Record: 1-3
- Current Ranking and Rating: 103rd, -8.5 rating
- Record Expectations (based on underlying stats): 1.34-2.66
- Future Expectations (based on TBI): 1.73-7.27
- Final Projected Record: 2.73-9.27
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Tracking the Model
The Binion Index had by far its best week of the year in Week 4. That was an encouraging rebound after a rough start and a good sign that our in-season numbers are on target.
We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.
The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of almost 50 different models. After two weeks, the Binion Index would be 36th overall ATS and 39th in absolute error.
Season to Date ATS: 47.0%
ATS Goal: >=55%
Season to Date Absolute Error: 13.9
Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5
Week 4 Ratings
Week 4 Ratings from TBI
Rank | Team | Week 4 Rating |
---|---|---|
Rank | Team | Week 4 Rating |
1 | Alabama | 33.2 |
2 | Georgia | 32.9 |
3 | Ohio State | 32.8 |
4 | Minnesota | 29.3 |
5 | Michigan | 20.9 |
6 | Utah | 19.7 |
7 | LSU | 19.6 |
8 | Oklahoma | 17.1 |
9 | Clemson | 17 |
10 | Mississippi State | 16.3 |
11 | Tennessee | 15 |
12 | Washington | 14 |
13 | Penn State | 13 |
14 | Oregon | 12.2 |
15 | TCU | 11.5 |
16 | Air Force | 10.9 |
17 | Cincinnati | 10.5 |
18 | Baylor | 10.1 |
19 | NC State | 10.1 |
20 | Pittsburgh | 10 |
21 | Florida State | 9.9 |
22 | Iowa State | 9.8 |
23 | BYU | 9.5 |
24 | Purdue | 9.4 |
25 | Wisconsin | 9.4 |
26 | Kentucky | 9.2 |
27 | Maryland | 9.2 |
28 | Oklahoma State | 9.2 |
29 | UAB | 9.2 |
30 | USC | 9 |
31 | Wake Forest | 8.5 |
32 | UCLA | 8.4 |
33 | Notre Dame | 7.7 |
34 | Tulsa | 7.1 |
35 | Kansas State | 7 |
36 | Ole Miss | 6.8 |
37 | Arkansas | 6.6 |
38 | Oregon State | 6.4 |
39 | Texas | 6.4 |
40 | Illinois | 5.9 |
41 | Western Kentucky | 5.8 |
42 | Miami | 5.4 |
43 | Florida | 5.2 |
44 | Texas A&M | 5 |
45 | Tulane | 4.2 |
46 | Fresno State | 4.1 |
47 | UCF | 4 |
48 | James Madison | 3.7 |
49 | Washington State | 3.5 |
50 | Louisville | 3.2 |
51 | SMU | 3.2 |
52 | Boise State | 2.9 |
53 | North Carolina | 2.7 |
54 | UT San Antonio | 2.5 |
55 | Army | 2.2 |
56 | Texas Tech | 2.2 |
57 | Appalachian State | 1.7 |
58 | East Carolina | 1.4 |
59 | Iowa | 1.4 |
60 | West Virginia | 1.3 |
61 | Georgia State | 1.1 |
62 | Michigan State | 1.1 |
63 | Nebraska | 1 |
64 | Toledo | 0.8 |
65 | Marshall | 0.6 |
66 | South Alabama | 0.6 |
67 | Houston | 0.3 |
68 | Missouri | -0.1 |
69 | South Carolina | -0.1 |
70 | Coastal Carolina | -0.2 |
71 | Syracuse | -0.3 |
72 | Auburn | -0.6 |
73 | Liberty | -1.1 |
74 | Louisiana | -2.1 |
75 | Troy | -2.1 |
76 | Virginia Tech | -2.6 |
77 | California | -2.9 |
78 | Kansas | -2.9 |
79 | Memphis | -2.9 |
80 | Indiana | -3.1 |
81 | Southern Mississippi | -3.2 |
82 | Virginia | -3.6 |
83 | Florida Atlantic | -4 |
84 | Miami (OH) | -4.6 |
85 | Central Michigan | -5.1 |
86 | Duke | -5.2 |
87 | San José State | -5.2 |
88 | Louisiana Monroe | -5.5 |
89 | Middle Tennessee | -5.5 |
90 | Stanford | -6.1 |
91 | Kent State | -6.2 |
92 | Georgia Southern | -6.4 |
93 | Boston College | -6.5 |
94 | Northwestern | -6.5 |
95 | Rice | -6.6 |
96 | Vanderbilt | -7.5 |
97 | Buffalo | -7.8 |
98 | Northern Illinois | -7.8 |
99 | North Texas | -8.2 |
100 | UNLV | -8.2 |
101 | Old Dominion | -8.3 |
102 | Western Michigan | -8.4 |
103 | Georgia Tech | -8.5 |
104 | Rutgers | -8.7 |
105 | South Florida | -8.9 |
106 | Texas State | -9.1 |
107 | Ball State | -10.2 |
108 | Arizona State | -10.5 |
109 | UTEP | -10.5 |
110 | Arizona | -10.9 |
111 | Temple | -11.7 |
112 | Ohio | -12.4 |
113 | San Diego State | -12.4 |
114 | Arkansas State | -14.5 |
115 | Wyoming | -14.6 |
116 | Utah State | -16 |
117 | Navy | -16.4 |
118 | Louisiana Tech | -17.1 |
119 | Charlotte | -17.3 |
120 | New Mexico | -17.3 |
121 | Colorado State | -17.7 |
122 | Eastern Michigan | -18.1 |
123 | New Mexico State | -18.1 |
124 | Nevada | -18.7 |
125 | Akron | -20.4 |
126 | Connecticut | -20.6 |
127 | UMass | -21.4 |
128 | Bowling Green | -22.9 |
129 | Hawai'i | -22.9 |
130 | Colorado | -23.3 |
131 | Florida International | -24.3 |
Conference and Division Ratings
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