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FTRS Picks Week 5: Some are Hot, Some are Not

It’s not just a modeling thing

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: SEP 24 Southwest Classic - Arkansas vs Texas A&M Photo by George Walker/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

results from last week

In week 4 the spreads really messed some picks up. Arkansas fell apart but still kept the loss to 2 points, UCF had a spread of 18 but only won by 17, Clemson won by 7 with a spread of 7.5. It was a very close week which led to some shifts in results. 3 people shared the top spot; monorail_yellowjacket, Anuj Bhyravabhotla, and “AHolt(Please ignore if I already submitted this week)”... I assume that was just AHolt. Anyway those 3 got the top score with 7 correct picks.

With the picks this week AHolt now has the top spot with 27 of 44 correct picks. Duff’d It Illuminati is the second closest with 25 of 44 correct picks. There has been a shift at the top all of the previous weeks this season, so lets see if that trend keeps going.

Um... I don’t have a lot to say this week. The games last week tossed some preconceived notions out the window. Texas fell apart, Notre Dame came back to relevance with some help from the UNC defense, Michigan State continues to ruin my day, Arkansas started hot and then did nothing...

On the plus side this has also led to some closer matchups as teams are trying to find the spark that will push them forward in the season. GT just fired Geoff Collins, so maybe that will be a spark for us. Middle Tennessee beat Miami, so I suppose anything is possible.

picks for this week:

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ Pitt Panthers (-19.5)

Logan: The spread on these games just keeps getting bigger and bigger. We just lost our head coach, we have an anemic offense and we are going against last year’s ACC champion. This might be the one time it is safe to say Pitt will beat the spread unless they simply decide to take mercy on us. I hate to break the bit here, but Pitt is the obvious choice here.

Logan’s pick: Pitt (man it makes me feel a bit woozy just typing that)

#7 Kentucky Wildcats @ #14 Ole Miss Rebels (-4.0)

Logan: Having seen Ole Miss’s offense first hand, they seem to be the real deal. Kentucky had had a good start to the season with a big road win against rival Florida. Ole Miss hasn’t really played anyone (self burn... that hurts) but they did struggle against Tulsa which is an indicator they are looking ahead to this game. This is tough... I do think it’ll be close, but will it be 4 points close? No, I guess I gotta go with Ole Miss.

Logan’s pick: Ole Miss

#22 Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ #23 Florida State Seminoles (-4.0)

Logan: I’m not putting much thought into this game. I could go into the stats but the fact is I have been unable to trust FSU in the past few years to be consistently good. Wake Forest though, well just look at their game against Clemson last weekend. Wake is good, I expect them to win.

Logan’s pick: Wake

#18 Oklahoma Sooners (-5.0) @ TCU Horned Frogs

Logan: Well darn... I doubted the Horned Frogs last week and they really took it to SMU. Oklahoma struggled in a loss to Kansas State which is arguably a worse than TCU. Does that mean I should pick TCU to beat the spread here? Maybe, but I’m still going to pick Oklahoma because sometimes you do need to judge a team by the name on the jersey.

Logan’s pick: Sooners

#15 Washington Huskies (-2.5) @ UCLA Bruins

Logan: Another story of statistically similar teams which have played different types of opponents. UCLA has struggled with opponents like University of South Alabama but has still found a way to win. Washington has run over all their opponents, but their best win was against a Michigan State team which no longer has the same shine it did earlier in the year. Tough call, but I think the Huskies have had a better showing and are more consistent. I’ll side with the Huskies to take home the win.

Logan’s pick: Washington

San Diego State Aztecs @ Boise State Broncos (-5.0)

Logan: Both of these teams are 2-2 right now. I’m not sure how San Diego State feels about that record, but I know Boise State didn’t want to be 2-2 at this point on the season. Boise State just dropped a tough loss to the UTEP miners, so things are not looking up for them. Aztecs have lost to some PAC-12 teams (particularly Utah), but I expect them to have this game highlighted. I like Boise, but San Diego should be taking this opportunity to kick the Broncos while they are down.

Logan’s pick: Aztecs

#9 Oklahoma State Cowboys @ #16 Baylor Bears (-1.5)

Logan: Baylor seems to be favored no matter who they are playing against. Are there a bunch of Casino managers who are secretly Baylor alums? This will certainly be a close game, and a fun one to watch; based on statistics and previous game results though you should be leaning toward the Cowboys.

Logan’s pick: Oklahoma State

Iowa State Cyclones (-3.0) @ Kansas Jayhawks

Logan: Where did Kansas come from? 0-9 in 2020, 2-10 in 2021, and now all of a sudden they are 4-0 and fans are packing the stadium. I don’t want to get too ahead of myself but Lance Leipold is making things happen. Iowa State and Kansas are both close statistically, but Iowa hasn’t given me any real reason to pick them over the Jayhawks. This might be a bit of a stretch, but lets keep this party rolling. Give me the Jayhawks.

Logan’s pick: Kansas

#2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-16.5) @ #20 Arkansas Razorbacks

Logan: In my only pick for Bama this year they let me down by only showing up for the second half against Texas. Arkansas on the other hand has done a good job at covering the spread. Even though the razorbacks choked late they still managed to beat the spread against TAMU. Tough call, but I’m gonna stick with my core principle of not picking against Alabama.

Logan’s pick: Roll Tide

#4 Michigan Wolverines (-9.5) @ Iowa Hawkeyes

Logan: It felt wrong to leave out this key matchup in the BIG 10. Some people might be wondering why this would even be close, but Michigan’s struggle at home against Maryland last week has put some blood in the water. The Hawkeyes get Michigan at home and the Hawkeyes also have one of the strongest defenses in the country (which is important because their offense is garbage). I don’t doubt that Michigan is going to win this game, but given that this will likely be a defensive showdown I feel that Michigan winning by 10 points or more will be a challenge. I’ll take Iowa to cover in this one.

Logan’s pick: Iowa

#10 NC State Wolfpack @ #5 Clemson Tigers (-7.5)

Logan: Clemson is far from being in the clear this season. They still have an away game at FSU, an away game against Notre Dame, and they have a game against Miami... Ok, maybe that last one isn’t as big of a deal now. NC State thinks this is their season (like literally, its a big topic around the Triangle). The Wolfpack have the defensive prowess to stick with anyone so they feel they can take this game. At home this will certainly be in favor of Clemson. Whatever happens, I think It’ll be closer than a touchdown. Give me the Wolfpack.

Logan’s pick: NC State covers