The Binion Index Week 3

Floundering GT, the Mighty Big Ten, and Sun Belt East Pulls Even with ACC Coastal

By Robert Binion@robert_binion Sep 20, 2022, 8:00am EDT

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National Headlines

As in-season results get cranked up and preseason ratings turned down, UGA takes a sizable lead at the top spot in TBI
Michigan has rocketed up by crushing the worst OOC schedule I have ever seen
Oregon has bounced back from its opening loss as well as possible
Big Ten with four in the Top Ten

GT Check-In

Current Record: 1-2
Current Ranking and Rating: 110th, -10.9 rating
Record Expectations (based on underlying stats): 0.87-2.13
Future Expectations (based on TBI): 1.49-7.51
Final Projected Record: 2.49-9.51

Tracking the Model

The Binion Index improved slightly from the opening weeks of the season but largely continued its early season projection struggles in Week 3. Going into Week 4, the balance between in season ratings and preseason ratings shifts significantly, and I anticipate that will improve performance going ahead.

We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.

The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of almost 50 different models. After two weeks, the Binion Index would be 36th overall ATS and 39th in absolute error.

Season to Date ATS: 43.0%

ATS Goal: >=55%

Season to Date Absolute Error: 14.6

Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5

Week 3 Ratings

The Binion Index Week 3

Rank	Team	Week3_Rating
Rank	Team	Week3_Rating
1	Georgia	35.1
2	Alabama	28.6
3	Ohio State	28.1
4	Michigan	24.8
5	Minnesota	19.8
6	Oklahoma	19.3
7	Clemson	18.6
8	Tennessee	18.5
9	TCU	16
10	Purdue	15.3
11	LSU	14.5
12	Penn State	13.3
13	Utah	13.2
14	Mississippi State	12.8
15	Wisconsin	12.8
16	Oregon	10.8
17	Washington	10.7
18	Pittsburgh	10.5
19	Kentucky	10.2
20	Miami	9.9
21	Iowa State	9.4
22	Air Force	9.2
23	BYU	9
24	UAB	9
25	Baylor	8.6
26	Ole Miss	8.6
27	Cincinnati	8.3
28	Oklahoma State	7.9
29	Notre Dame	7.8
30	James Madison	7.7
31	Texas	7
32	Washington State	6.9
33	Texas A&M	6.7
34	Florida State	6.7
35	NC State	6.5
36	Maryland	6.5
37	Wake Forest	6.4
38	USC	6.1
39	Oregon State	6
40	Boise State	5.9
41	Arkansas	5.5
42	Tulane	5.1
43	UCF	4.9
44	Fresno State	4.7
45	Michigan State	4.7
46	UCLA	4.3
47	Kansas State	4.3
48	Tulsa	4.3
49	SMU	3.8
50	Georgia State	3.5
51	Appalachian State	3.3
52	North Carolina	3.1
53	Nebraska	2.9
54	Marshall	2.7
55	Florida	2.3
56	Iowa	2.2
57	Army	1.9
58	Auburn	1.5
59	Syracuse	1.3
60	Houston	0.9
61	Texas Tech	0.9
62	Louisville	0.4
63	Toledo	0.4
64	Western Kentucky	0.1
65	Illinois	0
66	West Virginia	0
67	Louisiana	-0.3
68	East Carolina	-0.7
69	Stanford	-0.9
70	Missouri	-1
71	Virginia Tech	-1.1
72	Liberty	-1.2
73	UT San Antonio	-1.2
74	Arizona State	-1.5
75	Memphis	-1.6
76	Troy	-1.8
77	Southern Mississippi	-2.3
78	South Alabama	-2.4
79	Coastal Carolina	-2.5
80	South Carolina	-2.8
81	Miami (OH)	-2.8
82	Western Michigan	-3.5
83	Indiana	-3.9
84	Kansas	-4.5
85	California	-4.6
86	Florida Atlantic	-5
87	South Florida	-5
88	Duke	-5.1
89	Virginia	-5.4
90	Central Michigan	-5.7
91	Rice	-5.8
92	Boston College	-6
93	Georgia Southern	-6.2
94	Northwestern	-6.3
95	Kent State	-6.8
96	North Texas	-7
97	Old Dominion	-7.7
98	Northern Illinois	-8.3
99	Rutgers	-9.2
100	Louisiana Monroe	-9.2
101	Buffalo	-9.5
102	Arizona	-9.5
103	Vanderbilt	-9.5
104	UNLV	-9.5
105	Middle Tennessee	-9.8
106	San José State	-9.9
107	Ohio	-10
108	UTEP	-10.6
109	Ball State	-10.7
110	Georgia Tech	-10.9
111	San Diego State	-12.9
112	Charlotte	-13.6
113	Eastern Michigan	-13.7
114	Wyoming	-14
115	Navy	-14.2
116	Texas State	-14.2
117	Utah State	-14.6
118	Nevada	-15.4
119	Temple	-15.5
120	Louisiana Tech	-15.7
121	Arkansas State	-16.1
122	New Mexico	-16.1
123	Colorado State	-16.2
124	UMass	-16.2
125	Florida International	-18
126	Connecticut	-18.8
127	Akron	-19.3
128	Colorado	-19.7
129	Hawai'i	-20.1
130	Bowling Green	-20.3
131	New Mexico State	-22.1