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The Binion Index Week 3

Floundering GT, the Mighty Big Ten, and Sun Belt East Pulls Even with ACC Coastal

By Robert Binion
/ new
NCAA Football: Connecticut at Michigan Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

National Headlines

  • As in-season results get cranked up and preseason ratings turned down, UGA takes a sizable lead at the top spot in TBI
  • Michigan has rocketed up by crushing the worst OOC schedule I have ever seen
  • Oregon has bounced back from its opening loss as well as possible
  • Big Ten with four in the Top Ten

GT Check-In

  • Current Record: 1-2
  • Current Ranking and Rating: 110th, -10.9 rating
  • Record Expectations (based on underlying stats): 0.87-2.13
  • Future Expectations (based on TBI): 1.49-7.51
  • Final Projected Record: 2.49-9.51

Tracking the Model

The Binion Index improved slightly from the opening weeks of the season but largely continued its early season projection struggles in Week 3. Going into Week 4, the balance between in season ratings and preseason ratings shifts significantly, and I anticipate that will improve performance going ahead.

We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.

The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of almost 50 different models. After two weeks, the Binion Index would be 36th overall ATS and 39th in absolute error.

Season to Date ATS: 43.0%

ATS Goal: >=55%

Season to Date Absolute Error: 14.6

Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5

Week 3 Ratings

The Binion Index Week 3

Rank Team Week3_Rating
Rank Team Week3_Rating
1 Georgia 35.1
2 Alabama 28.6
3 Ohio State 28.1
4 Michigan 24.8
5 Minnesota 19.8
6 Oklahoma 19.3
7 Clemson 18.6
8 Tennessee 18.5
9 TCU 16
10 Purdue 15.3
11 LSU 14.5
12 Penn State 13.3
13 Utah 13.2
14 Mississippi State 12.8
15 Wisconsin 12.8
16 Oregon 10.8
17 Washington 10.7
18 Pittsburgh 10.5
19 Kentucky 10.2
20 Miami 9.9
21 Iowa State 9.4
22 Air Force 9.2
23 BYU 9
24 UAB 9
25 Baylor 8.6
26 Ole Miss 8.6
27 Cincinnati 8.3
28 Oklahoma State 7.9
29 Notre Dame 7.8
30 James Madison 7.7
31 Texas 7
32 Washington State 6.9
33 Texas A&M 6.7
34 Florida State 6.7
35 NC State 6.5
36 Maryland 6.5
37 Wake Forest 6.4
38 USC 6.1
39 Oregon State 6
40 Boise State 5.9
41 Arkansas 5.5
42 Tulane 5.1
43 UCF 4.9
44 Fresno State 4.7
45 Michigan State 4.7
46 UCLA 4.3
47 Kansas State 4.3
48 Tulsa 4.3
49 SMU 3.8
50 Georgia State 3.5
51 Appalachian State 3.3
52 North Carolina 3.1
53 Nebraska 2.9
54 Marshall 2.7
55 Florida 2.3
56 Iowa 2.2
57 Army 1.9
58 Auburn 1.5
59 Syracuse 1.3
60 Houston 0.9
61 Texas Tech 0.9
62 Louisville 0.4
63 Toledo 0.4
64 Western Kentucky 0.1
65 Illinois 0
66 West Virginia 0
67 Louisiana -0.3
68 East Carolina -0.7
69 Stanford -0.9
70 Missouri -1
71 Virginia Tech -1.1
72 Liberty -1.2
73 UT San Antonio -1.2
74 Arizona State -1.5
75 Memphis -1.6
76 Troy -1.8
77 Southern Mississippi -2.3
78 South Alabama -2.4
79 Coastal Carolina -2.5
80 South Carolina -2.8
81 Miami (OH) -2.8
82 Western Michigan -3.5
83 Indiana -3.9
84 Kansas -4.5
85 California -4.6
86 Florida Atlantic -5
87 South Florida -5
88 Duke -5.1
89 Virginia -5.4
90 Central Michigan -5.7
91 Rice -5.8
92 Boston College -6
93 Georgia Southern -6.2
94 Northwestern -6.3
95 Kent State -6.8
96 North Texas -7
97 Old Dominion -7.7
98 Northern Illinois -8.3
99 Rutgers -9.2
100 Louisiana Monroe -9.2
101 Buffalo -9.5
102 Arizona -9.5
103 Vanderbilt -9.5
104 UNLV -9.5
105 Middle Tennessee -9.8
106 San José State -9.9
107 Ohio -10
108 UTEP -10.6
109 Ball State -10.7
110 Georgia Tech -10.9
111 San Diego State -12.9
112 Charlotte -13.6
113 Eastern Michigan -13.7
114 Wyoming -14
115 Navy -14.2
116 Texas State -14.2
117 Utah State -14.6
118 Nevada -15.4
119 Temple -15.5
120 Louisiana Tech -15.7
121 Arkansas State -16.1
122 New Mexico -16.1
123 Colorado State -16.2
124 UMass -16.2
125 Florida International -18
126 Connecticut -18.8
127 Akron -19.3
128 Colorado -19.7
129 Hawai'i -20.1
130 Bowling Green -20.3
131 New Mexico State -22.1

Conference and Division Ratings

Big Ten made huge gains in Week 3, and the Sun Belt East is neck and neck with the Coastal!

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