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National Headlines
- As in-season results get cranked up and preseason ratings turned down, UGA takes a sizable lead at the top spot in TBI
- Michigan has rocketed up by crushing the worst OOC schedule I have ever seen
- Oregon has bounced back from its opening loss as well as possible
- Big Ten with four in the Top Ten
GT Check-In
- Current Record: 1-2
- Current Ranking and Rating: 110th, -10.9 rating
- Record Expectations (based on underlying stats): 0.87-2.13
- Future Expectations (based on TBI): 1.49-7.51
- Final Projected Record: 2.49-9.51
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Tracking the Model
The Binion Index improved slightly from the opening weeks of the season but largely continued its early season projection struggles in Week 3. Going into Week 4, the balance between in season ratings and preseason ratings shifts significantly, and I anticipate that will improve performance going ahead.
We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.
The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of almost 50 different models. After two weeks, the Binion Index would be 36th overall ATS and 39th in absolute error.
Season to Date ATS: 43.0%
ATS Goal: >=55%
Season to Date Absolute Error: 14.6
Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5
Week 3 Ratings
The Binion Index Week 3
Rank | Team | Week3_Rating |
---|---|---|
Rank | Team | Week3_Rating |
1 | Georgia | 35.1 |
2 | Alabama | 28.6 |
3 | Ohio State | 28.1 |
4 | Michigan | 24.8 |
5 | Minnesota | 19.8 |
6 | Oklahoma | 19.3 |
7 | Clemson | 18.6 |
8 | Tennessee | 18.5 |
9 | TCU | 16 |
10 | Purdue | 15.3 |
11 | LSU | 14.5 |
12 | Penn State | 13.3 |
13 | Utah | 13.2 |
14 | Mississippi State | 12.8 |
15 | Wisconsin | 12.8 |
16 | Oregon | 10.8 |
17 | Washington | 10.7 |
18 | Pittsburgh | 10.5 |
19 | Kentucky | 10.2 |
20 | Miami | 9.9 |
21 | Iowa State | 9.4 |
22 | Air Force | 9.2 |
23 | BYU | 9 |
24 | UAB | 9 |
25 | Baylor | 8.6 |
26 | Ole Miss | 8.6 |
27 | Cincinnati | 8.3 |
28 | Oklahoma State | 7.9 |
29 | Notre Dame | 7.8 |
30 | James Madison | 7.7 |
31 | Texas | 7 |
32 | Washington State | 6.9 |
33 | Texas A&M | 6.7 |
34 | Florida State | 6.7 |
35 | NC State | 6.5 |
36 | Maryland | 6.5 |
37 | Wake Forest | 6.4 |
38 | USC | 6.1 |
39 | Oregon State | 6 |
40 | Boise State | 5.9 |
41 | Arkansas | 5.5 |
42 | Tulane | 5.1 |
43 | UCF | 4.9 |
44 | Fresno State | 4.7 |
45 | Michigan State | 4.7 |
46 | UCLA | 4.3 |
47 | Kansas State | 4.3 |
48 | Tulsa | 4.3 |
49 | SMU | 3.8 |
50 | Georgia State | 3.5 |
51 | Appalachian State | 3.3 |
52 | North Carolina | 3.1 |
53 | Nebraska | 2.9 |
54 | Marshall | 2.7 |
55 | Florida | 2.3 |
56 | Iowa | 2.2 |
57 | Army | 1.9 |
58 | Auburn | 1.5 |
59 | Syracuse | 1.3 |
60 | Houston | 0.9 |
61 | Texas Tech | 0.9 |
62 | Louisville | 0.4 |
63 | Toledo | 0.4 |
64 | Western Kentucky | 0.1 |
65 | Illinois | 0 |
66 | West Virginia | 0 |
67 | Louisiana | -0.3 |
68 | East Carolina | -0.7 |
69 | Stanford | -0.9 |
70 | Missouri | -1 |
71 | Virginia Tech | -1.1 |
72 | Liberty | -1.2 |
73 | UT San Antonio | -1.2 |
74 | Arizona State | -1.5 |
75 | Memphis | -1.6 |
76 | Troy | -1.8 |
77 | Southern Mississippi | -2.3 |
78 | South Alabama | -2.4 |
79 | Coastal Carolina | -2.5 |
80 | South Carolina | -2.8 |
81 | Miami (OH) | -2.8 |
82 | Western Michigan | -3.5 |
83 | Indiana | -3.9 |
84 | Kansas | -4.5 |
85 | California | -4.6 |
86 | Florida Atlantic | -5 |
87 | South Florida | -5 |
88 | Duke | -5.1 |
89 | Virginia | -5.4 |
90 | Central Michigan | -5.7 |
91 | Rice | -5.8 |
92 | Boston College | -6 |
93 | Georgia Southern | -6.2 |
94 | Northwestern | -6.3 |
95 | Kent State | -6.8 |
96 | North Texas | -7 |
97 | Old Dominion | -7.7 |
98 | Northern Illinois | -8.3 |
99 | Rutgers | -9.2 |
100 | Louisiana Monroe | -9.2 |
101 | Buffalo | -9.5 |
102 | Arizona | -9.5 |
103 | Vanderbilt | -9.5 |
104 | UNLV | -9.5 |
105 | Middle Tennessee | -9.8 |
106 | San José State | -9.9 |
107 | Ohio | -10 |
108 | UTEP | -10.6 |
109 | Ball State | -10.7 |
110 | Georgia Tech | -10.9 |
111 | San Diego State | -12.9 |
112 | Charlotte | -13.6 |
113 | Eastern Michigan | -13.7 |
114 | Wyoming | -14 |
115 | Navy | -14.2 |
116 | Texas State | -14.2 |
117 | Utah State | -14.6 |
118 | Nevada | -15.4 |
119 | Temple | -15.5 |
120 | Louisiana Tech | -15.7 |
121 | Arkansas State | -16.1 |
122 | New Mexico | -16.1 |
123 | Colorado State | -16.2 |
124 | UMass | -16.2 |
125 | Florida International | -18 |
126 | Connecticut | -18.8 |
127 | Akron | -19.3 |
128 | Colorado | -19.7 |
129 | Hawai'i | -20.1 |
130 | Bowling Green | -20.3 |
131 | New Mexico State | -22.1 |
Conference and Division Ratings
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Big Ten made huge gains in Week 3, and the Sun Belt East is neck and neck with the Coastal!
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