FTRS Picks Week 4: Is it Pessimism?

results from last week

Week 3 had much closer results that week 2. Swgawrych89 came out on top with 8 correct picks. 7 people came in second place with 7 correct picks (RamblerGambler, aknartrebna, Duff’d It! Illuminati, CGC’s hot seat, Samanth, @LeeNobody, and JStew_GT; good job guys).

Currently at the top of the list for the season is CGC’s hot seat (which is... oddly apropos) with 22 out of 33 correct picks on the season. The hot seat is followed closely by Cliff Clavin who has 21 correct picks and a myriad of others sitting at 20 correct picks.

Not gonna lie, that game last Saturday left me feeling hollow the rest of the weekend. Hurt my soul a bit.

Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

I know plenty of people on this site get flak for being “too pessimistic”. I like to think I was being optimistic given I said we would cover the spread against Ole Miss. I just gotta ask, is it wrong to pick against GT if we know how bad their on the field performance is?

... Yeah, it still feels wrong in my heart but its getting difficult to ignore the blaring alarms in my head that say we are pretty awful right now. Makes it hard for me to keep finding strong points for why we will cover the spread; not gonna stop me from trying though. I dunno, what do y’all think. Feel free to call me a terrible fan in the comments below.

picks for this week:

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ UCF Golden Knights (-18.0)

Logan: ESPN is currently giving us about a 7% chance of winning this game... so you’re saying there’s a chance? UCF has better stats than us on both side of the ball, UCF is getting us at home, and there is a fair argument that Geoff Collins has lost the locker room after the game last week; but you know what, I’m feeling lucky. Georgia Tech bounces back from last week and finds a way to lose by only 17 points. Come on guys... give me something to work with.

Logan’s pick: Georgia Tech covers

West Virginia Mountaineers (-3) @ Virginia Tech Hokies

Logan: This is a weird one. You have the 1-2 Mountaineers who have lost to Pitt and Kansas going up against the 2-1 Hokies who have won against Wofford and Boston College. Vegas says West Virginia is favored, and that feels right based on what we’ve seen their offense do but I’m not sure you can say a team that lost a shootout with Kansas is the team you should be picking to win. Brent Pry has a chance to prove... well not much really in this game but maybe it will build confidence going down the line. I will use some fantasy football logic and say that VT always surprises me and go with them to somehow win this match outright. Thursday night tends to work better for the Hokies anyway.

Logan’s pick: VT

#17 Baylor Bears @ Iowa State Cyclones (-2.5)

Logan: A defensive matchup in the Big 12... never heard of that before. Over/Under on this game is 44.5 which is so weird to see given both these teams are gaining over 400 yds per game on average. I would go with the over personally. As far as the actual matchup it comes down to an explosive offense in Iowa State that takes more risks and an offense for Baylor that plays safer with short plays and balanced run games. I’m gonna ride with Baylor here and see if they can prove themselves on the road against a tough in conference opponent.

Logan’s pick: Baylor

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-1.0) @ North Carolina Tar Heels

Logan: Mack is back with a 3-0 North Carolina Tar Heel team. Notre Dame is far from back. They have looked bad, even in their one win they have looked bad. Going on the road Notre Dame is favored, and I just don’t see it. I’m gonna take North Carolina in this one. It’ll be close, but with this spread the pick basically comes down to who you expect to win.

Logan’s pick: UNC

#7 USC Trojans (-6.5) @ Oregon State Beavers

Logan: Beavers are doing great this year. Oregon State colloquially known as the bottom dweller of the PAC-12, but after 3 opening games they look like they have a pretty decent team that can matchup well with some of the other teams out West. Unfortunately the Trojans will not be one of those teams. I expect USC to win in dominant fashion.

Logan’s pick: USC

TCU Horned Frogs @ SMU Mustangs (EVEN)

Logan: The battle for the iron skillet. Mustangs suffered a close loss last week against Maryland but have otherwise looked like an offensive juggernaut. TCU looks to be stronger on defense, but given they have only played Colorado and the Tarleton Texans that doesn’t give us much to go on. In a close game, I will take SMU to win at home.

Logan’s pick: SMU

Minnesota Golden Gophers (-1.5) @ Michigan State Spartans

Logan: Michigan State really let me down last week. It didn’t look like they even showed up against Washington. This week the spartans get an undefeated, but untested, Golden Gopher squad. Against my better judgement I will take a chance and say Michigan State bounces back at home, but this is the last opportunity they get.

Logan’s pick: Michigan State

#15 Oregon Ducks (-5.5) @ Washington State Cougars

Logan: Oregon doesn’t do anything half way. The ducks are either winning by a bunch or losing by a bunch. In this case they are going against a Washington State team that has surprised Wisconsin with a stout defense. Unfortunately I don’t think Washington State will have the defense they need in this one and Oregon will win by more than a touchdown.

Logan’s pick: Oregon

#10 Arkansas Razorbacks v #23 Texas A&M Aggies (-2.5)

Logan: The Southwest classic at Arlington Stadium. This game is usually pretty wild, regardless of the rankings, so try to tune in if you can. Texas A&M is really trying to prove they are no longer the team that got embarrassed by App State. They get a razorback squad that is better on offense, better on defense, and generally more excited to take the field. If Arkansas’ defense can keep the aggies in check I think they have a great opportunity to win this game. Give me Arkansas.

Logan’s pick: Arkansas

#22 Texas Longhorns (-5.5) @ Texas Tech Red Raiders

Logan: The Red Raiders keep getting interesting spreads, what do you want from me. Really this one should be the Longhorn’s game pretty easy, but you can never underestimate a team at home. Texas Tech has looked pretty good against most of the teams they’ve played... it won’t matter against Texas though. Give me the Longhorns.

Logan’s pick: Texas

#5 Clemson Tigers (-7.5) @ #21 Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Logan: Really tempting to just go with Clemson here given their history, but Wake Forest has made some amazing strides and have proven themselves in the past against Clemson. Wake Forest gets this one at home and they will need the fans to show out in force. I don’t know if Wake will win, but I think they can at least cover... definitely a stretch but I could see it.

Logan’s pick: Wake covers