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The Binion Index Week 2

Alabama survives, four huge upsets, and some sneaky fun tier two teams

By Robert Binion
/ new
NCAA Football: Alabama at Texas Austin American-Statesman-USA TODAY NETWORK

National Headlines

  • Alabama survives Texas and holds a one point edge on UGA for the top spot in TBI
  • Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, and Nebraska all lose as 17+ point favorites
  • BYU ekes one out against Baylor and has an early inside track for a New Year’s Six berth

GT Check-In

  • Current Record: 1-1
  • Current Ranking and Rating: 103rd, -9.0 rating
  • Record Expectations (based on underlying stats): 0.86-1.14
  • Future Expectations (based on TBI): 2.05-7.95
  • Final Projected Record: 3.05-8.95

Tracking the Model

The Binion Index has gotten off to a tough start over the first two weeks of the 2022 season. Week 2 was much improved over Week 1 but still well below last year’s performance. We particularly struggled with the larger spread games and have turned some knobs this week to work towards improving that performance.

We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.

The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of almost 50 different models. After two weeks, the Binion Index would be 40th overall ATS and 41st in absolute error.

Season to Date ATS: 42.4%

ATS Goal: >=55%

Season to Date Absolute Error: 14.3

Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5

Week 2 Ratings

The Binion Index Week 2

Rank Team Rating
Rank Team Rating
1 Alabama 31.6
2 Georgia 30.2
3 Ohio State 28.9
4 Clemson 20.8
5 Michigan 18.4
6 Oklahoma 17.2
7 Mississippi State 16.4
8 Air Force 15.2
9 BYU 15.1
10 Minnesota 15
11 TCU 14.3
12 LSU 13.8
13 Utah 13.5
14 Tennessee 12.5
15 Wisconsin 12.2
16 Cincinnati 12.1
17 Purdue 11.1
18 UAB 10.7
19 Washington 10.4
20 Notre Dame 10.1
21 Miami 9.7
22 Tulane 9.5
23 Penn State 9.4
24 Kentucky 9
25 NC State 8.8
26 Auburn 8.6
27 Texas A&M 8.4
28 SMU 8.3
29 Oregon 8.3
30 Wake Forest 8.2
31 Arkansas 7.8
32 Texas 7.5
33 Pittsburgh 7.4
34 Florida 7.2
35 Baylor 7.2
36 Boise State 6.7
37 Ole Miss 6.5
38 Oklahoma State 6.1
39 North Carolina 5.8
40 Fresno State 5.6
41 Florida State 5.5
42 UCLA 5.5
43 Appalachian State 5.3
44 Iowa State 5.3
45 Michigan State 5.1
46 Kansas State 5.1
47 Nebraska 4.8
48 Louisville 4.7
49 USC 4.4
50 Iowa 4
51 Oregon State 3.9
52 Toledo 3.5
53 Houston 3.4
54 Arizona State 3.1
55 Georgia State 3.1
56 Maryland 2.7
57 Western Michigan 2.5
58 UCF 2.4
59 South Carolina 2.2
60 Tulsa 2.1
61 Western Kentucky 1.3
62 Louisiana 1.3
63 Liberty 0.9
64 Marshall 0.5
65 Texas Tech 0.4
66 Missouri 0.3
67 Army 0.1
68 Syracuse -0.1
69 Troy -0.8
70 James Madison -1.1
71 Virginia Tech -1.4
72 Coastal Carolina -2.3
73 Northwestern -2.3
74 UT San Antonio -2.3
75 Stanford -2.5
76 Washington State -2.5
77 Memphis -2.7
78 Illinois -3
79 Georgia Southern -3.4
80 Florida Atlantic -3.4
81 Virginia -3.5
82 Miami (OH) -3.5
83 Indiana -3.9
84 North Texas -3.9
85 East Carolina -4.4
86 West Virginia -4.7
87 Southern Mississippi -5.5
88 Northern Illinois -5.8
89 South Florida -5.9
90 Ohio -6.1
91 South Alabama -6.2
92 California -6.4
93 San José State -7.3
94 Boston College -7.4
95 Kansas -7.4
96 Old Dominion -7.5
97 Rice -7.5
98 San Diego State -8.2
99 Rutgers -8.2
100 UTEP -8.3
101 Buffalo -8.7
102 Duke -8.9
103 Georgia Tech -9
104 Central Michigan -9.3
105 Kent State -9.4
106 Arizona -9.8
107 Colorado State -10.6
108 Navy -10.8
109 Charlotte -11.1
110 Vanderbilt -11.4
111 Eastern Michigan -11.6
112 Louisiana Monroe -11.8
113 Colorado -12
114 Ball State -12.9
115 Louisiana Tech -13.2
116 Wyoming -13.5
117 Texas State -13.8
118 Utah State -13.9
119 Nevada -14
120 Middle Tennessee -15.3
121 UNLV -15.6
122 Temple -16.4
123 Akron -16.5
124 Arkansas State -17.2
125 Bowling Green -18.4
126 Florida International -19.6
127 New Mexico -20.3
128 Connecticut -21
129 New Mexico State -22.1
130 Hawai'i -22.5
131 UMass -27.6

Conference and Division Ratings

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