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National Headlines
- Alabama survives Texas and holds a one point edge on UGA for the top spot in TBI
- Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, and Nebraska all lose as 17+ point favorites
- BYU ekes one out against Baylor and has an early inside track for a New Year’s Six berth
GT Check-In
- Current Record: 1-1
- Current Ranking and Rating: 103rd, -9.0 rating
- Record Expectations (based on underlying stats): 0.86-1.14
- Future Expectations (based on TBI): 2.05-7.95
- Final Projected Record: 3.05-8.95
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Tracking the Model
The Binion Index has gotten off to a tough start over the first two weeks of the 2022 season. Week 2 was much improved over Week 1 but still well below last year’s performance. We particularly struggled with the larger spread games and have turned some knobs this week to work towards improving that performance.
We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.
The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of almost 50 different models. After two weeks, the Binion Index would be 40th overall ATS and 41st in absolute error.
Season to Date ATS: 42.4%
ATS Goal: >=55%
Season to Date Absolute Error: 14.3
Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5
Week 2 Ratings
The Binion Index Week 2
Rank | Team | Rating |
---|---|---|
Rank | Team | Rating |
1 | Alabama | 31.6 |
2 | Georgia | 30.2 |
3 | Ohio State | 28.9 |
4 | Clemson | 20.8 |
5 | Michigan | 18.4 |
6 | Oklahoma | 17.2 |
7 | Mississippi State | 16.4 |
8 | Air Force | 15.2 |
9 | BYU | 15.1 |
10 | Minnesota | 15 |
11 | TCU | 14.3 |
12 | LSU | 13.8 |
13 | Utah | 13.5 |
14 | Tennessee | 12.5 |
15 | Wisconsin | 12.2 |
16 | Cincinnati | 12.1 |
17 | Purdue | 11.1 |
18 | UAB | 10.7 |
19 | Washington | 10.4 |
20 | Notre Dame | 10.1 |
21 | Miami | 9.7 |
22 | Tulane | 9.5 |
23 | Penn State | 9.4 |
24 | Kentucky | 9 |
25 | NC State | 8.8 |
26 | Auburn | 8.6 |
27 | Texas A&M | 8.4 |
28 | SMU | 8.3 |
29 | Oregon | 8.3 |
30 | Wake Forest | 8.2 |
31 | Arkansas | 7.8 |
32 | Texas | 7.5 |
33 | Pittsburgh | 7.4 |
34 | Florida | 7.2 |
35 | Baylor | 7.2 |
36 | Boise State | 6.7 |
37 | Ole Miss | 6.5 |
38 | Oklahoma State | 6.1 |
39 | North Carolina | 5.8 |
40 | Fresno State | 5.6 |
41 | Florida State | 5.5 |
42 | UCLA | 5.5 |
43 | Appalachian State | 5.3 |
44 | Iowa State | 5.3 |
45 | Michigan State | 5.1 |
46 | Kansas State | 5.1 |
47 | Nebraska | 4.8 |
48 | Louisville | 4.7 |
49 | USC | 4.4 |
50 | Iowa | 4 |
51 | Oregon State | 3.9 |
52 | Toledo | 3.5 |
53 | Houston | 3.4 |
54 | Arizona State | 3.1 |
55 | Georgia State | 3.1 |
56 | Maryland | 2.7 |
57 | Western Michigan | 2.5 |
58 | UCF | 2.4 |
59 | South Carolina | 2.2 |
60 | Tulsa | 2.1 |
61 | Western Kentucky | 1.3 |
62 | Louisiana | 1.3 |
63 | Liberty | 0.9 |
64 | Marshall | 0.5 |
65 | Texas Tech | 0.4 |
66 | Missouri | 0.3 |
67 | Army | 0.1 |
68 | Syracuse | -0.1 |
69 | Troy | -0.8 |
70 | James Madison | -1.1 |
71 | Virginia Tech | -1.4 |
72 | Coastal Carolina | -2.3 |
73 | Northwestern | -2.3 |
74 | UT San Antonio | -2.3 |
75 | Stanford | -2.5 |
76 | Washington State | -2.5 |
77 | Memphis | -2.7 |
78 | Illinois | -3 |
79 | Georgia Southern | -3.4 |
80 | Florida Atlantic | -3.4 |
81 | Virginia | -3.5 |
82 | Miami (OH) | -3.5 |
83 | Indiana | -3.9 |
84 | North Texas | -3.9 |
85 | East Carolina | -4.4 |
86 | West Virginia | -4.7 |
87 | Southern Mississippi | -5.5 |
88 | Northern Illinois | -5.8 |
89 | South Florida | -5.9 |
90 | Ohio | -6.1 |
91 | South Alabama | -6.2 |
92 | California | -6.4 |
93 | San José State | -7.3 |
94 | Boston College | -7.4 |
95 | Kansas | -7.4 |
96 | Old Dominion | -7.5 |
97 | Rice | -7.5 |
98 | San Diego State | -8.2 |
99 | Rutgers | -8.2 |
100 | UTEP | -8.3 |
101 | Buffalo | -8.7 |
102 | Duke | -8.9 |
103 | Georgia Tech | -9 |
104 | Central Michigan | -9.3 |
105 | Kent State | -9.4 |
106 | Arizona | -9.8 |
107 | Colorado State | -10.6 |
108 | Navy | -10.8 |
109 | Charlotte | -11.1 |
110 | Vanderbilt | -11.4 |
111 | Eastern Michigan | -11.6 |
112 | Louisiana Monroe | -11.8 |
113 | Colorado | -12 |
114 | Ball State | -12.9 |
115 | Louisiana Tech | -13.2 |
116 | Wyoming | -13.5 |
117 | Texas State | -13.8 |
118 | Utah State | -13.9 |
119 | Nevada | -14 |
120 | Middle Tennessee | -15.3 |
121 | UNLV | -15.6 |
122 | Temple | -16.4 |
123 | Akron | -16.5 |
124 | Arkansas State | -17.2 |
125 | Bowling Green | -18.4 |
126 | Florida International | -19.6 |
127 | New Mexico | -20.3 |
128 | Connecticut | -21 |
129 | New Mexico State | -22.1 |
130 | Hawai'i | -22.5 |
131 | UMass | -27.6 |
Conference and Division Ratings
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