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The Binion Index Week 14

Conference Championships are in the books, the Playoff is set, and these are our final pre-bowl ratings

By Robert Binion
/ new
NCAA Football: Big 12 Football Championship-Texas Christian at Kansas State Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

National Headlines

  • USC fell apart in the second half against a powerful Utah team and saw its Playoff chances evaporate
  • TCU lost a heart-breaker but comfortably got into the Playoff as the three seed anyway
  • We would make UGA about a 5 point favorite over Ohio State and Michigan about a 15 point favorite over TCU

Tracking the Model

The Binion Index had an excellent championship week to end the season, hitting 6/10 of the title games ATS and posting an excellent 10.0 average absolute error. We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning over 52.3% of games ATS is profitable and a very solid standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.

Throughout the season, we’ve been entering the Prediction Tracker from collegefootballdata.com, along with dozens of our other modeling friends. After 14 weeks, the Binion Index is 12th overall ATS and 18th in absolute error out of qualifying models.

Season to Date ATS: 49.7%

ATS Goal: >=52.3%

Season to Date Absolute Error: 13.3

Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5

Week 14 Ratings

The Binion Index Week 14

Rank Team Week14_Rating
Rank Team Week14_Rating
1 Georgia 35.7
2 Ohio State 30.4
3 Michigan 30.1
4 Alabama 29.8
5 Tennessee 23.3
6 Utah 21.4
7 Oregon 20
8 Washington 19.6
9 Penn State 19.3
10 Clemson 18.6
11 Kansas State 18.5
12 LSU 18.3
13 Florida State 18.2
14 Illinois 17.2
15 Oregon State 16.6
16 Mississippi State 16
17 Texas 16
18 Minnesota 16
19 TCU 14.8
20 Pittsburgh 14.1
21 Maryland 13.7
22 USC 13
23 Notre Dame 12.7
24 UCLA 12
25 UT San Antonio 11.8
26 Houston 10.7
27 South Alabama 10.5
28 Wisconsin 10.4
29 Ole Miss 10
30 Kentucky 9.9
31 Louisville 9.7
32 Missouri 9.6
33 Iowa 9.6
34 James Madison 9
35 Wake Forest 8.8
36 Washington State 8.1
37 Oklahoma 7.6
38 Baylor 7.4
39 Marshall 7.4
40 Florida 7.3
41 Purdue 6.9
42 Boise State 6.4
43 South Carolina 6.3
44 Kansas 6.1
45 Tulane 5.7
46 Air Force 5.7
47 Arkansas 5.6
48 UCF 5.4
49 Fresno State 5.4
50 Cincinnati 5.2
51 Syracuse 4.4
52 Toledo 3.8
53 Troy 3.5
54 Duke 3.4
55 Iowa State 3
56 UAB 2.6
57 Texas A&M 2.4
58 Ohio 2.3
59 Texas Tech 2.3
60 Auburn 2.3
61 Appalachian State 1.1
62 San José State 1.1
63 NC State 0.9
64 Western Kentucky 0.7
65 Michigan State -0.4
66 West Virginia -0.5
67 San Diego State -0.7
68 Oklahoma State -1.3
69 North Carolina -1.4
70 East Carolina -1.7
71 Liberty -1.9
72 Tulsa -2.1
73 SMU -3.3
74 BYU -3.6
75 Army -4
76 North Texas -4.1
77 Connecticut -4.8
78 Buffalo -4.9
79 Miami -5.1
80 Kent State -5.3
81 Memphis -5.3
82 Louisiana -5.7
83 Georgia State -6.1
84 Nebraska -6.3
85 Coastal Carolina -6.7
86 Georgia Tech -7
87 Virginia -8.1
88 Georgia Southern -8.1
89 Middle Tennessee -8.1
90 New Mexico State -8.1
91 Florida Atlantic -8.7
92 California -9
93 Eastern Michigan -9.3
94 Louisiana Monroe -9.5
95 Temple -10
96 Arizona State -10.2
97 Southern Mississippi -10.2
98 Virginia Tech -10.4
99 Ball State -10.7
100 Texas State -10.9
101 Arizona -11.1
102 Rutgers -11.4
103 Indiana -11.5
104 Central Michigan -11.7
105 Boston College -12.2
106 Miami (OH) -13.5
107 Northwestern -13.6
108 Rice -14.2
109 Vanderbilt -14.4
110 Utah State -14.5
111 Northern Illinois -14.7
112 UNLV -16.3
113 Akron -16.6
114 Old Dominion -16.8
115 Wyoming -17
116 Stanford -18.3
117 Navy -18.5
118 South Florida -18.5
119 UTEP -18.6
120 Colorado State -20.2
121 Louisiana Tech -20.2
122 Western Michigan -20.4
123 Hawai'i -20.8
124 Charlotte -21.3
125 Bowling Green -23.6
126 UMass -24.5
127 Arkansas State -25.7
128 Nevada -26.9
129 Florida International -29.2
130 New Mexico -32.7
131 Colorado -33.6

Conference and Division Ratings

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