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The Binion Index Week 10

Alabama Tumbles, UGA grabs the top spot, and GT almost pulls even with Miami

By Robert Binion
/ new
NCAA Football: Alabama at Louisiana State Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

National Headlines

  • Alabama falls in Death Valley and tumbles to 6th in our ratings
  • Ohio State struggled in the weather, and Georgia dominated to grab the top spot
  • Michigan and Oregon keep climbing
  • Illinois was a disaster and plummeted

GT Check-In

  • Current Record: 4-5
  • Current Ranking and Rating: 78th, -4.5 rating
  • Record Expectations (based on underlying stats): 3.50-5.50
  • Future Expectations (based on TBI): 0.75-2.25
  • Final Projected Record: 4.75-7.25

Tracking the Model

The Binion Index had a solid bounce back week, hitting 56% of games ATS and posting a solid 12.7 average absolute error. We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning over 52.3% of games ATS is profitable and a very solid standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.

The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of almost 50 different models. After nine weeks, the Binion Index would be 12th overall ATS and 33rd in absolute error.

Season to Date ATS: 50.6%

ATS Goal: >=2.3%

Season to Date Absolute Error: 13.1

Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5

Week 10 Ratings

TBI Week 10

Ranking Team Week 10 Rating Last Week Rating
Ranking Team Week 10 Rating Last Week Rating
1 Georgia 37.8 32.4
2 Ohio State 33.9 37.9
3 Michigan 33.5 28.3
4 Oregon 27.7 23.5
5 Tennessee 27 27.7
6 Alabama 25.7 28.2
7 LSU 23 20.9
8 Penn State 18.9 15.5
9 Utah 18.5 18.2
10 Mississippi State 15.6 17.7
11 Minnesota 15.3 13.8
12 Illinois 15.1 21.7
13 UCLA 15 14.2
14 Kansas State 14.4 14.9
15 Wisconsin 14.2 14.5
16 Notre Dame 13.7 10.4
17 South Alabama 13.6 9.9
18 Iowa State 13.5 10.8
19 Maryland 13.1 13.4
20 USC 12.6 12.2
21 Florida State 12.5 9.5
22 Clemson 12.3 15.6
23 Texas 12.1 11.2
24 Louisville 11.7 7.4
25 Baylor 11.4 8.9
26 Washington 10.9 9.4
27 TCU 10.7 12.7
28 Wake Forest 10.2 9.5
29 Boise State 10.1 8.8
30 Kansas 9.8 3.7
31 Oregon State 9.2 10.7
32 Western Kentucky 9 4.9
33 Pittsburgh 8.9 6.8
34 Washington State 8.9 5.2
35 Kentucky 8.5 7.6
36 UCF 8.5 7
37 Toledo 8.3 9.1
38 Marshall 7.9 4.2
39 Oklahoma 7.3 7.5
40 Syracuse 7.3 10
41 East Carolina 7 5.5
42 Missouri 6.9 8.4
43 San José State 6.6 5
44 Purdue 6.5 11.4
45 UAB 6.3 5.4
46 Houston 6.2 7.3
47 UT San Antonio 6.2 7.4
48 Arkansas 6 6.9
49 NC State 5.6 6.2
50 Air Force 5.5 4.1
51 Ole Miss 5 5.7
52 Cincinnati 4.5 4.3
53 Tulane 4.5 3.1
54 Iowa 4.4 0.5
55 North Carolina 3.9 4.4
56 Liberty 3.8 3.2
57 Appalachian State 3.6 4.8
58 James Madison 2.7 6.3
59 Texas Tech 2.7 1.7
60 Texas A&M 2.6 5.6
61 Oklahoma State 1.3 4.8
62 Troy 0.6 -0.5
63 Georgia State 0.2 -1.5
64 Duke -0.4 -0.5
65 Florida -0.4 -2.4
66 South Carolina -0.6 -1.2
67 North Texas -0.8 -5.4
68 Coastal Carolina -1.4 -1.7
69 Fresno State -1.8 -4.6
70 Ohio -1.9 -5.8
71 Buffalo -2.1 3.1
72 Tulsa -2.3 0.2
73 BYU -2.6 -1
74 Connecticut -2.6 -5.3
75 Virginia -2.7 -3
76 Miami -2.9 -0.6
77 SMU -3.1 -2.5
78 Georgia Tech -4.5 -5.6
79 Auburn -4.7 -4.6
80 West Virginia -4.7 -3.6
81 Louisiana -5.1 -2.3
82 San Diego State -5.3 -6.5
83 Ball State -5.9 -7.3
84 Arizona State -6.1 -2.9
85 California -6.1 -7.8
86 Memphis -6.1 -5
87 Army -6.2 -3.2
88 Kent State -6.5 -5.2
89 Louisiana Monroe -6.6 -8.5
90 Michigan State -6.6 -9.1
91 Nebraska -6.9 -4.5
92 Texas State -7 -5.6
93 Georgia Southern -7.3 -4.7
94 Northwestern -8.2 -10.2
95 Central Michigan -8.6 -10.8
96 Rice -9.1 -11.1
97 Florida Atlantic -9.5 -8.5
98 Miami (OH) -9.6 -8.8
99 Southern Mississippi -10.3 -5.4
100 Temple -10.3 -15.6
101 Virginia Tech -10.7 -12.3
102 Old Dominion -11 -9.2
103 Indiana -11.3 -7.7
104 Boston College -11.4 -10.8
105 Eastern Michigan -12 -11.4
106 Utah State -12.1 -12.5
107 Vanderbilt -12.2 -11.9
108 Arizona -12.3 -13.7
109 Rutgers -12.8 -8.3
110 Louisiana Tech -13.4 -15.3
111 Middle Tennessee -13.8 -13.2
112 UNLV -13.9 -15.2
113 Northern Illinois -14 -13.7
114 South Florida -14.9 -10.7
115 New Mexico State -16 -15.8
116 Stanford -16.5 -12.9
117 Wyoming -17.1 -16
118 Western Michigan -17.3 -17.9
119 Navy -19 -19.1
120 UTEP -19.3 -16.8
121 Bowling Green -19.7 -19.8
122 Akron -20.8 -19.2
123 Arkansas State -20.9 -18.5
124 Colorado State -21.6 -21.5
125 Hawai'i -21.9 -18.3
126 Charlotte -22.6 -18
127 New Mexico -22.7 -22.4
128 Colorado -23 -29.6
129 Florida International -24.7 -20.8
130 Nevada -25.3 -23.6
131 UMass -25.4 -25.4

Conference and Division Ratings

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