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The Binion Index Week 13

Michigan Wins The Game, TCU Stays Unbeaten, USC Still Has Flaws

By Robert Binion
/ new
Syndication: The Columbus Dispatch Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

National Headlines

  • Michigan cruised past Ohio State on the strength of 5 huge plays and drew into a virtual ratings tie with the Buckeyes
  • TCU had its most convincing win of the year against a legitimate opponent but is still a slight underdog in TBI against Kansas State
  • USC took care of Notre Dame but gave up tons of efficient passing and is a slight underdog to Utah in TBI

GT Check-In

  • Current Record: 5-7
  • Current Ranking and Rating: 86th, -7.0 rating
  • Record Expectations (based on underlying stats): 4.10-7.90
  • Future Expectations (based on TBI): HIRE A NEW COACH
  • Final Projected Record: 5-7

Tracking the Model

The Binion Index had another rough week to end the season, hitting 46% of games ATS and posting a rough 14.0 average absolute error. We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning over 52.3% of games ATS is profitable and a very solid standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.

Throughout the season, we’ve been entering the Prediction Tracker from collegefootballdata.com, along with dozens of our other modeling friends. After 13 weeks, the Binion Index is 19th overall ATS and 32nd in absolute error.

Season to Date ATS: 49.6%

ATS Goal: >=52.3%

Season to Date Absolute Error: 13.3

Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5

Week 13 Ratings

TBI Week 13 Ratings

Rank Team Week13_Rating
Rank Team Week13_Rating
1 Georgia 36.5
2 Ohio State 30.3
3 Michigan 29.9
4 Alabama 29.5
5 Tennessee 23
6 LSU 20.1
7 Utah 20.1
8 Oregon 19.8
9 Washington 19.3
10 Penn State 19.1
11 Florida State 18
12 Kansas State 17.4
13 Illinois 17.1
14 Oregon State 16.4
15 TCU 16.1
16 Mississippi State 16
17 Texas 16
18 Minnesota 15.8
19 Clemson 15
20 USC 14.7
21 Pittsburgh 14
22 Maryland 13.5
23 Notre Dame 13
24 UCLA 11.8
25 UT San Antonio 11.4
26 Wisconsin 10.7
27 Houston 10.4
28 Ole Miss 10.2
29 South Alabama 10.1
30 Louisville 9.8
31 Kentucky 9.8
32 Missouri 9.5
33 Iowa 9.4
34 Wake Forest 8.7
35 James Madison 8.7
36 Boise State 8.3
37 Washington State 8.2
38 Purdue 7.8
39 Oklahoma 7.7
40 Baylor 7.5
41 Florida 7.2
42 Marshall 7
43 UCF 6.9
44 South Carolina 6.2
45 Kansas 6.1
46 Arkansas 5.6
47 Air Force 5.3
48 Cincinnati 5.3
49 Fresno State 4.8
50 Syracuse 4.4
51 Tulane 4.3
52 Ohio 4.1
53 Duke 3.4
54 Iowa State 2.9
55 Texas A&M 2.7
56 Troy 2.6
57 Texas Tech 2.5
58 UAB 2.5
59 Toledo 2.4
60 Auburn 2.3
61 Appalachian State 1.2
62 NC State 1
63 San José State 0.8
64 Western Kentucky 0.4
65 Michigan State -0.2
66 North Carolina -0.2
67 West Virginia -0.3
68 Oklahoma State -1.1
69 San Diego State -1.1
70 East Carolina -1.8
71 Tulsa -1.9
72 North Texas -2.1
73 Liberty -2.3
74 SMU -3.2
75 BYU -3.4
76 Army -4.2
77 Buffalo -4.9
78 Kent State -5
79 Connecticut -5
80 Memphis -5.1
81 Miami -5.2
82 Louisiana -5.7
83 Coastal Carolina -5.9
84 Georgia State -5.9
85 Nebraska -6.1
86 Georgia Tech -7
87 Virginia -7.5
88 Georgia Southern -8.1
89 Middle Tennessee -8.4
90 California -8.5
91 Florida Atlantic -8.5
92 Louisiana Monroe -9
93 Eastern Michigan -9.5
94 Temple -9.9
95 Arizona State -10
96 Virginia Tech -10.2
97 Southern Mississippi -10.4
98 Ball State -10.6
99 Texas State -10.9
100 Arizona -10.9
101 Rutgers -11.2
102 Indiana -11.3
103 Central Michigan -11.6
104 Boston College -11.9
105 Northwestern -13.4
106 Miami (OH) -13.4
107 Rice -13.8
108 Vanderbilt -14.2
109 Utah State -14.4
110 Northern Illinois -14.7
111 New Mexico State -15.6
112 UNLV -16.3
113 Akron -16.6
114 Old Dominion -16.7
115 Wyoming -17
116 Navy -18.2
117 Stanford -18.2
118 South Florida -18.3
119 UTEP -18.6
120 Colorado State -20
121 Louisiana Tech -20.3
122 Western Michigan -20.3
123 Hawai'i -20.8
124 Charlotte -21.2
125 Bowling Green -23.5
126 UMass -24.4
127 Arkansas State -25.5
128 Nevada -26.7
129 Florida International -29.1
130 New Mexico -32.4
131 Colorado -33.1

Conference and Division Ratings

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