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The Binion Index Week 12

Tennessee Goes Down, Other Contenders Survive, All Eyes on The Game, GT Wins a Shocker

By Robert Binion
/ new
Syndication: The Columbus Dispatch Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

National Headlines

  • Tennessee was crushed by South Carolina as a 22.5 point favorite
  • TCU, Michigan, Ohio State, and Georgia all held on after facing real tests
  • All eyes this week are on the battle of the unbeatens, Ohio State and Michigan

GT Check-In

  • Current Record: 5-6
  • Current Ranking and Rating: 83rd, -6.6 rating
  • Record Expectations (based on underlying stats): 4.09-6.91
  • Future Expectations (based on TBI): 0.00-1.00
  • Final Projected Record: 5-7

Tracking the Model

The Binion Index had its worst week of the season, hitting 37% of games ATS and posting a terrible 15.4 average absolute error. We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning over 52.3% of games ATS is profitable and a very solid standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.

Throughout the season, we’ve been entering the Prediction Tracker from collegefootballdata.com, along with dozens of our other modeling friends. After 12 weeks, the Binion Index is 24th overall ATS and 42nd in absolute error.

Season to Date ATS: 50.0%

ATS Goal: >=52.3%

Season to Date Absolute Error: 13.3

Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5

Week 12 Ratings

TBI Week 12 Ratings

Ranking Team Week 12 Rating Last Week's Rating
Ranking Team Week 12 Rating Last Week's Rating
1 Georgia 36.9 37.4
2 Ohio State 33.4 35.5
3 Alabama 28.7 24
4 Michigan 28.1 32.3
5 LSU 28 23.2
6 Tennessee 24.7 28.8
7 Penn State 24 22.7
8 Oregon 23.5 25.5
9 Utah 21.7 21.6
10 Kansas State 20.1 19.1
11 Florida State 19.7 15.7
12 Washington 17.4 13.4
13 Mississippi State 16.9 11
14 Clemson 16.8 14
15 Oregon State 16 13.2
16 Minnesota 15.6 19.3
17 USC 14.6 13.9
18 Notre Dame 14.5 11.1
19 Illinois 14.1 13.4
20 TCU 13.8 13.8
21 UCLA 13.8 13
22 Washington State 13.6 10.9
23 Texas 13.5 11.9
24 Houston 12.4 6
25 Louisville 11.9 11.4
26 Maryland 11.8 11.1
27 Kansas 11.4 10.5
28 UT San Antonio 11.4 5.5
29 Wisconsin 11.3 11.9
30 South Alabama 10.3 9.6
31 Wake Forest 9.7 10
32 Baylor 9.5 9.4
33 Pittsburgh 9.4 12
34 Ole Miss 9.3 11.7
35 Iowa 9.3 4.4
36 Missouri 8.9 4
37 Florida 8.4 9.4
38 Kentucky 8.4 7.9
39 Boise State 8.1 9.5
40 Arkansas 8.1 5
41 Marshall 7.4 5
42 Oklahoma 7.1 5.7
43 UCF 6.7 8
44 Tulane 6.7 3.5
45 James Madison 6.7 8.6
46 Iowa State 6 7.9
47 Purdue 5.7 6
48 Auburn 5.2 1.2
49 Air Force 4.3 4
50 San José State 4.1 3.9
51 Cincinnati 4.1 1.8
52 Texas Tech 3.8 3
53 Duke 3.5 2.9
54 Toledo 2.9 4.5
55 Liberty 2.2 4.3
56 Fresno State 2.2 1
57 Syracuse 2.1 2.8
58 UAB 2 5.1
59 Appalachian State 1.8 1.4
60 NC State 1.7 2.8
61 Ohio 1.6 -0.2
62 Texas A&M 1.3 1.6
63 Oklahoma State 1.1 3.2
64 East Carolina 0.6 7.3
65 South Carolina 0.6 -3.5
66 Western Kentucky 0.6 3.1
67 North Carolina 0.5 3.1
68 Michigan State 0.2 2
69 Miami -0.6 1.3
70 Troy -0.6 -0.1
71 Coastal Carolina -1.2 -1.4
72 San Diego State -1.4 -3.5
73 West Virginia -1.6 -3.4
74 North Texas -2.5 -2.2
75 Tulsa -3.3 -2.5
76 Buffalo -3.8 -3.9
77 SMU -4.3 -1.5
78 BYU -4.3 -5.8
79 Memphis -5 -7.2
80 Kent State -5.2 -4.2
81 Connecticut -5.2 -4.6
82 Georgia State -5.5 -0.6
83 Georgia Tech -6.6 -11.3
84 Louisiana Monroe -7.2 -6.5
85 Army -7.5 -6.2
86 Nebraska -7.7 -5.7
87 Virginia -7.7 -6.6
88 Louisiana -8.4 -5.3
89 Texas State -8.4 -10
90 Rutgers -8.5 -8.3
91 Central Michigan -8.6 -8.3
92 Georgia Southern -8.7 -7.5
93 California -9.6 -8.7
94 Middle Tennessee -9.9 -12.8
95 Virginia Tech -10.2 -13.1
96 Florida Atlantic -10.4 -5.9
97 Indiana -10.9 -11.7
98 Boston College -11.1 -7.6
99 Southern Mississippi -11.2 -9.7
100 Vanderbilt -11.4 -10.8
101 Ball State -11.5 -8.2
102 Northwestern -11.7 -11.3
103 Northern Illinois -11.7 -12.4
104 Arizona -11.8 -10
105 Temple -11.9 -9.6
106 Arizona State -12.3 -7.8
107 Eastern Michigan -12.7 -12.4
108 Utah State -13.2 -12.9
109 Miami (OH) -13.7 -12.4
110 Rice -14.4 -9.8
111 Wyoming -15.3 -16.2
112 Old Dominion -16.4 -15
113 UNLV -17.4 -17.1
114 Navy -17.6 -17.9
115 Stanford -18.1 -20.2
116 Louisiana Tech -18.5 -17
117 South Florida -19.2 -18.5
118 Bowling Green -20.1 -20.7
119 UTEP -20.3 -20.8
120 Western Michigan -20.6 -19.3
121 Hawai'i -20.6 -21.1
122 Charlotte -20.8 -21.3
123 UMass -21.1 -23.6
124 Arkansas State -21.4 -19.8
125 New Mexico State -22.5 -16.3
126 Akron -25.1 -22.1
127 Colorado State -25.2 -22.8
128 Colorado -29.7 -24
129 Nevada -29.9 -27
130 Florida International -30.6 -27.7
131 New Mexico -30.9 -27.4

Conference and Division Ratings

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