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National Headlines
- Oregon fell as a double digit favorite to Washington, but had higher win probability than the Huskies and held onto the 5th spot
- The top three is now firmly entrenched as UGA, Ohio State, and Michigan
- Tennessee looks like the fourth best team and is very likely to make the Playoff
- Florida State has risen rapidly with three straight blowout wins
GT Check-In
- Current Record: 4-6
- Current Ranking and Rating: 102nd, -11.3 rating
- Record Expectations (based on underlying stats): 3.60-6.40
- Future Expectations (based on TBI): 0.12-1.88
- Final Projected Record: 4.12-7.88
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Tracking the Model
The Binion Index had another excellent week, hitting 59% of games ATS and posting a solid 12.4 average absolute error. We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning over 52.3% of games ATS is profitable and a very solid standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.
Throughout the season, we’ve been entering the Prediction Tracker from collegefootballdata.com, along with dozens of our other modeling friends. After 11 weeks, the Binion Index is 7th overall ATS and 22nd in absolute error.
Season to Date ATS: 51.7%
ATS Goal: >=52.3%
Season to Date Absolute Error: 13.0
Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5
Week 11 Ratings
TBI Week 11 Ratings
Rank | Team | Week 11 Rating | Week 10 Rating |
---|---|---|---|
Rank | Team | Week 11 Rating | Week 10 Rating |
1 | Georgia | 37.4 | 37.8 |
2 | Ohio State | 35.5 | 33.9 |
3 | Michigan | 32.3 | 33.5 |
4 | Tennessee | 28.8 | 27 |
5 | Oregon | 25.5 | 27.7 |
6 | Alabama | 24 | 25.7 |
7 | LSU | 23.2 | 23 |
8 | Penn State | 22.7 | 18.9 |
9 | Utah | 21.6 | 18.5 |
10 | Minnesota | 19.3 | 15.3 |
11 | Kansas State | 19.1 | 14.4 |
12 | Florida State | 15.7 | 12.5 |
13 | Clemson | 14 | 12.3 |
14 | USC | 13.9 | 12.6 |
15 | TCU | 13.8 | 10.7 |
16 | Washington | 13.4 | 10.9 |
17 | Illinois | 13.4 | 15.1 |
18 | Oregon State | 13.2 | 9.2 |
19 | UCLA | 13 | 15 |
20 | Pittsburgh | 12 | 8.9 |
21 | Wisconsin | 11.9 | 14.2 |
22 | Texas | 11.9 | 12.1 |
23 | Ole Miss | 11.7 | 5 |
24 | Louisville | 11.4 | 11.7 |
25 | Notre Dame | 11.1 | 13.7 |
26 | Maryland | 11.1 | 13.1 |
27 | Mississippi State | 11 | 15.6 |
28 | Washington State | 10.9 | 8.9 |
29 | Kansas | 10.5 | 9.8 |
30 | Wake Forest | 10 | 10.2 |
31 | South Alabama | 9.6 | 13.6 |
32 | Boise State | 9.5 | 10.1 |
33 | Baylor | 9.4 | 11.4 |
34 | Florida | 9.4 | -0.4 |
35 | James Madison | 8.6 | 2.7 |
36 | UCF | 8 | 8.5 |
37 | Iowa State | 7.9 | 13.5 |
38 | Kentucky | 7.9 | 8.5 |
39 | East Carolina | 7.3 | 7 |
40 | Purdue | 6 | 6.5 |
41 | Houston | 6 | 6.2 |
42 | Oklahoma | 5.7 | 7.3 |
43 | UT San Antonio | 5.5 | 6.2 |
44 | UAB | 5.1 | 6.3 |
45 | Marshall | 5 | 7.9 |
46 | Arkansas | 5 | 6 |
47 | Toledo | 4.5 | 8.3 |
48 | Iowa | 4.4 | 4.4 |
49 | Liberty | 4.3 | 3.8 |
50 | Missouri | 4 | 6.9 |
51 | Air Force | 4 | 5.5 |
52 | San José State | 3.9 | 6.6 |
53 | Tulane | 3.5 | 4.5 |
54 | Oklahoma State | 3.2 | 1.3 |
55 | North Carolina | 3.1 | 3.9 |
56 | Western Kentucky | 3.1 | 9 |
57 | Texas Tech | 3 | 2.7 |
58 | Duke | 2.9 | -0.4 |
59 | Syracuse | 2.8 | 7.3 |
60 | NC State | 2.8 | 5.6 |
61 | Michigan State | 2 | -6.6 |
62 | Cincinnati | 1.8 | 4.5 |
63 | Texas A&M | 1.6 | 2.6 |
64 | Appalachian State | 1.4 | 3.6 |
65 | Miami | 1.3 | -2.9 |
66 | Auburn | 1.2 | -4.7 |
67 | Fresno State | 1 | -1.8 |
68 | Troy | -0.1 | 0.6 |
69 | Ohio | -0.2 | -1.9 |
70 | Georgia State | -0.6 | 0.2 |
71 | Coastal Carolina | -1.4 | -1.4 |
72 | SMU | -1.5 | -3.1 |
73 | North Texas | -2.2 | -0.8 |
74 | Tulsa | -2.5 | -2.3 |
75 | West Virginia | -3.4 | -4.7 |
76 | South Carolina | -3.5 | -0.6 |
77 | San Diego State | -3.5 | -5.3 |
78 | Buffalo | -3.9 | -2.1 |
79 | Kent State | -4.2 | -6.5 |
80 | Connecticut | -4.6 | -2.6 |
81 | Louisiana | -5.3 | -5.1 |
82 | Nebraska | -5.7 | -6.9 |
83 | BYU | -5.8 | -2.6 |
84 | Florida Atlantic | -5.9 | -9.5 |
85 | Army | -6.2 | -6.2 |
86 | Louisiana Monroe | -6.5 | -6.6 |
87 | Virginia | -6.6 | -2.7 |
88 | Memphis | -7.2 | -6.1 |
89 | Georgia Southern | -7.5 | -7.3 |
90 | Boston College | -7.6 | -11.4 |
91 | Arizona State | -7.8 | -6.1 |
92 | Ball State | -8.2 | -5.9 |
93 | Central Michigan | -8.3 | -8.6 |
94 | Rutgers | -8.3 | -12.8 |
95 | California | -8.7 | -6.1 |
96 | Temple | -9.6 | -10.3 |
97 | Southern Mississippi | -9.7 | -10.3 |
98 | Rice | -9.8 | -9.1 |
99 | Texas State | -10 | -7 |
100 | Arizona | -10 | -12.3 |
101 | Vanderbilt | -10.8 | -12.2 |
102 | Georgia Tech | -11.3 | -4.5 |
103 | Northwestern | -11.3 | -8.2 |
104 | Indiana | -11.7 | -11.3 |
105 | Miami (OH) | -12.4 | -9.6 |
106 | Eastern Michigan | -12.4 | -12 |
107 | Northern Illinois | -12.4 | -14 |
108 | Middle Tennessee | -12.8 | -13.8 |
109 | Utah State | -12.9 | -12.1 |
110 | Virginia Tech | -13.1 | -10.7 |
111 | Old Dominion | -15 | -11 |
112 | Wyoming | -16.2 | -17.1 |
113 | New Mexico State | -16.3 | -16 |
114 | Louisiana Tech | -17 | -13.4 |
115 | UNLV | -17.1 | -13.9 |
116 | Navy | -17.9 | -19 |
117 | South Florida | -18.5 | -14.9 |
118 | Western Michigan | -19.3 | -17.3 |
119 | Arkansas State | -19.8 | -20.9 |
120 | Stanford | -20.2 | -16.5 |
121 | Bowling Green | -20.7 | -19.7 |
122 | UTEP | -20.8 | -19.3 |
123 | Hawai'i | -21.1 | -21.9 |
124 | Charlotte | -21.3 | -22.6 |
125 | Akron | -22.1 | -20.8 |
126 | Colorado State | -22.8 | -21.6 |
127 | UMass | -23.6 | -25.4 |
128 | Colorado | -24 | -23 |
129 | Nevada | -27 | -25.3 |
130 | New Mexico | -27.4 | -22.7 |
131 | Florida International | -27.7 | -24.7 |
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Conference and Division Ratings
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