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The Binion Index Week 11

Oregon Goes Down, TCU Keeps Winning, and GT Falls Apart

By Robert Binion
/ new
Syndication: The Register Guard Chris Pietsch/The Register Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK

National Headlines

  • Oregon fell as a double digit favorite to Washington, but had higher win probability than the Huskies and held onto the 5th spot
  • The top three is now firmly entrenched as UGA, Ohio State, and Michigan
  • Tennessee looks like the fourth best team and is very likely to make the Playoff
  • Florida State has risen rapidly with three straight blowout wins

GT Check-In

  • Current Record: 4-6
  • Current Ranking and Rating: 102nd, -11.3 rating
  • Record Expectations (based on underlying stats): 3.60-6.40
  • Future Expectations (based on TBI): 0.12-1.88
  • Final Projected Record: 4.12-7.88

Tracking the Model

The Binion Index had another excellent week, hitting 59% of games ATS and posting a solid 12.4 average absolute error. We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning over 52.3% of games ATS is profitable and a very solid standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.

Throughout the season, we’ve been entering the Prediction Tracker from collegefootballdata.com, along with dozens of our other modeling friends. After 11 weeks, the Binion Index is 7th overall ATS and 22nd in absolute error.

Season to Date ATS: 51.7%

ATS Goal: >=52.3%

Season to Date Absolute Error: 13.0

Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5

Week 11 Ratings

TBI Week 11 Ratings

Rank Team Week 11 Rating Week 10 Rating
Rank Team Week 11 Rating Week 10 Rating
1 Georgia 37.4 37.8
2 Ohio State 35.5 33.9
3 Michigan 32.3 33.5
4 Tennessee 28.8 27
5 Oregon 25.5 27.7
6 Alabama 24 25.7
7 LSU 23.2 23
8 Penn State 22.7 18.9
9 Utah 21.6 18.5
10 Minnesota 19.3 15.3
11 Kansas State 19.1 14.4
12 Florida State 15.7 12.5
13 Clemson 14 12.3
14 USC 13.9 12.6
15 TCU 13.8 10.7
16 Washington 13.4 10.9
17 Illinois 13.4 15.1
18 Oregon State 13.2 9.2
19 UCLA 13 15
20 Pittsburgh 12 8.9
21 Wisconsin 11.9 14.2
22 Texas 11.9 12.1
23 Ole Miss 11.7 5
24 Louisville 11.4 11.7
25 Notre Dame 11.1 13.7
26 Maryland 11.1 13.1
27 Mississippi State 11 15.6
28 Washington State 10.9 8.9
29 Kansas 10.5 9.8
30 Wake Forest 10 10.2
31 South Alabama 9.6 13.6
32 Boise State 9.5 10.1
33 Baylor 9.4 11.4
34 Florida 9.4 -0.4
35 James Madison 8.6 2.7
36 UCF 8 8.5
37 Iowa State 7.9 13.5
38 Kentucky 7.9 8.5
39 East Carolina 7.3 7
40 Purdue 6 6.5
41 Houston 6 6.2
42 Oklahoma 5.7 7.3
43 UT San Antonio 5.5 6.2
44 UAB 5.1 6.3
45 Marshall 5 7.9
46 Arkansas 5 6
47 Toledo 4.5 8.3
48 Iowa 4.4 4.4
49 Liberty 4.3 3.8
50 Missouri 4 6.9
51 Air Force 4 5.5
52 San José State 3.9 6.6
53 Tulane 3.5 4.5
54 Oklahoma State 3.2 1.3
55 North Carolina 3.1 3.9
56 Western Kentucky 3.1 9
57 Texas Tech 3 2.7
58 Duke 2.9 -0.4
59 Syracuse 2.8 7.3
60 NC State 2.8 5.6
61 Michigan State 2 -6.6
62 Cincinnati 1.8 4.5
63 Texas A&M 1.6 2.6
64 Appalachian State 1.4 3.6
65 Miami 1.3 -2.9
66 Auburn 1.2 -4.7
67 Fresno State 1 -1.8
68 Troy -0.1 0.6
69 Ohio -0.2 -1.9
70 Georgia State -0.6 0.2
71 Coastal Carolina -1.4 -1.4
72 SMU -1.5 -3.1
73 North Texas -2.2 -0.8
74 Tulsa -2.5 -2.3
75 West Virginia -3.4 -4.7
76 South Carolina -3.5 -0.6
77 San Diego State -3.5 -5.3
78 Buffalo -3.9 -2.1
79 Kent State -4.2 -6.5
80 Connecticut -4.6 -2.6
81 Louisiana -5.3 -5.1
82 Nebraska -5.7 -6.9
83 BYU -5.8 -2.6
84 Florida Atlantic -5.9 -9.5
85 Army -6.2 -6.2
86 Louisiana Monroe -6.5 -6.6
87 Virginia -6.6 -2.7
88 Memphis -7.2 -6.1
89 Georgia Southern -7.5 -7.3
90 Boston College -7.6 -11.4
91 Arizona State -7.8 -6.1
92 Ball State -8.2 -5.9
93 Central Michigan -8.3 -8.6
94 Rutgers -8.3 -12.8
95 California -8.7 -6.1
96 Temple -9.6 -10.3
97 Southern Mississippi -9.7 -10.3
98 Rice -9.8 -9.1
99 Texas State -10 -7
100 Arizona -10 -12.3
101 Vanderbilt -10.8 -12.2
102 Georgia Tech -11.3 -4.5
103 Northwestern -11.3 -8.2
104 Indiana -11.7 -11.3
105 Miami (OH) -12.4 -9.6
106 Eastern Michigan -12.4 -12
107 Northern Illinois -12.4 -14
108 Middle Tennessee -12.8 -13.8
109 Utah State -12.9 -12.1
110 Virginia Tech -13.1 -10.7
111 Old Dominion -15 -11
112 Wyoming -16.2 -17.1
113 New Mexico State -16.3 -16
114 Louisiana Tech -17 -13.4
115 UNLV -17.1 -13.9
116 Navy -17.9 -19
117 South Florida -18.5 -14.9
118 Western Michigan -19.3 -17.3
119 Arkansas State -19.8 -20.9
120 Stanford -20.2 -16.5
121 Bowling Green -20.7 -19.7
122 UTEP -20.8 -19.3
123 Hawai'i -21.1 -21.9
124 Charlotte -21.3 -22.6
125 Akron -22.1 -20.8
126 Colorado State -22.8 -21.6
127 UMass -23.6 -25.4
128 Colorado -24 -23
129 Nevada -27 -25.3
130 New Mexico -27.4 -22.7
131 Florida International -27.7 -24.7

Conference and Division Ratings

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