clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

The Binion Index Week 5

Ohio State cruising, Utah climbing, and TCU is lots of fun

By Robert Binion
/ new
Syndication: The Greenville News Ken Ruinard / USA TODAY NETWORK

National Headlines

  • Utah has rocketed back up after the frustrating open week loss in Gainesville
  • Ohio State keeps destroying people and has almost a three point edge in the top spot
  • TCU might be the favorite in the Big 12 now
  • Clemson has firm control in the ACC now

GT Check-In

  • Current Record: 2-3
  • Current Ranking and Rating: 100th, -7.7 rating
  • Record Expectations (based on underlying stats): 1.68-3.32
  • Future Expectations (based on TBI): 1.78-5.22
  • Final Projected Record: 3.8-8.2

Tracking the Model

The Binion Index has been locked in the last two weeks, hitting just about 60% ATS with absolute error under 12 over the course of weeks 4 and 5 combined. We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.

The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of almost 50 different models. After five weeks, the Binion Index would be 6th overall ATS and 32nd in absolute error.

Season to Date ATS: 50.0%

ATS Goal: >=55%

Season to Date Absolute Error: 13.5

Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5

Week 5 Ratings

TBI Week 5

Rank Team Week5_Rating
Rank Team Week5_Rating
1 Ohio State 32.4
2 Alabama 29.7
3 Georgia 29.1
4 Utah 22.8
5 Minnesota 22.2
6 Michigan 18.6
7 LSU 15.8
8 Clemson 15.7
9 Mississippi State 15
10 TCU 14.7
11 Tennessee 14.4
12 Oregon 13.4
13 Purdue 13.2
14 Penn State 12.7
15 Washington 12.1
16 Oklahoma 11.8
17 Maryland 11.2
18 Kentucky 10.9
19 Cincinnati 10.1
20 Iowa State 10
21 NC State 10
22 BYU 9.9
23 Texas 9.8
24 Illinois 9.7
25 USC 9.2
26 Wake Forest 9
27 Air Force 8.7
28 Oklahoma State 8.7
29 Baylor 8.5
30 Pittsburgh 8.4
31 UAB 7.9
32 UCLA 7.5
33 James Madison 7.2
34 Syracuse 6.8
35 Ole Miss 6.6
36 Kansas State 6.5
37 Florida State 6.2
38 Wisconsin 5.6
39 Arkansas 5.5
40 Notre Dame 5.5
41 Marshall 5.3
42 Washington State 5
43 Appalachian State 4.7
44 Miami 4.6
45 Texas A&M 4.5
46 UT San Antonio 4.5
47 North Carolina 4.2
48 Oregon State 4
49 Florida 3.8
50 East Carolina 3.5
51 Georgia State 3.3
52 UCF 3.3
53 Tulsa 3.2
54 Toledo 3.1
55 Western Kentucky 2.8
56 SMU 2.6
57 South Alabama 2
58 Houston 1.9
59 Boise State 1.7
60 South Carolina 1.7
61 Iowa 1.2
62 Texas Tech 1.1
63 Auburn 0.8
64 West Virginia 0.8
65 Fresno State 0.6
66 Tulane 0.3
67 Coastal Carolina 0.1
68 Missouri -0.1
69 Troy -0.4
70 Louisville -0.5
71 Michigan State -1.1
72 Nebraska -1.2
73 Kansas -1.3
74 Liberty -1.3
75 Memphis -1.7
76 San José State -1.8
77 Louisiana -2.9
78 Duke -3.1
79 Army -3.2
80 Northwestern -3.3
81 Southern Mississippi -3.3
82 Indiana -3.7
83 California -4
84 Kent State -4
85 Virginia -4.1
86 Boston College -4.6
87 UNLV -4.7
88 Western Michigan -5
89 Vanderbilt -5.6
90 Buffalo -5.7
91 Florida Atlantic -5.8
92 Louisiana Monroe -6
93 Miami (OH) -6.2
94 North Texas -6.3
95 Rice -6.4
96 Central Michigan -6.5
97 Middle Tennessee -7.1
98 Virginia Tech -7.2
99 Georgia Southern -7.3
100 Georgia Tech -7.7
101 Ball State -8
102 Northern Illinois -8.1
103 Rutgers -8.3
104 Old Dominion -8.5
105 Arizona State -9.7
106 Ohio -9.8
107 South Florida -9.9
108 Arizona -10
109 Stanford -10.4
110 Texas State -11
111 Arkansas State -11.1
112 Temple -11.4
113 UTEP -12.7
114 Navy -12.9
115 San Diego State -13.4
116 Connecticut -14.6
117 Eastern Michigan -14.6
118 Charlotte -14.9
119 Utah State -15.3
120 Wyoming -16.1
121 New Mexico -16.6
122 Louisiana Tech -17.6
123 New Mexico State -18.1
124 Akron -18.9
125 Colorado State -18.9
126 Florida International -19
127 UMass -20
128 Bowling Green -20.1
129 Nevada -20.2
130 Colorado -21.6
131 Hawai'i -22.9

Conference and Division Ratings

  • Sun Belt East > ACC Coastal
  • Big 12 is solid top to bottom
  • Top of the PAC 12 is great, but the bottom is woeful

Loading comments...