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The Binion Index Week 9

Michigan Keeps Rolling, UGA-UT is a Top Five Banger, and GT keeps struggling

By Robert Binion
/ new
COLLEGE FOOTBALL: OCT 29 Michigan State at Michigan Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

National Headlines

  • Michigan inches past Alabama after another smothering of rival Michigan State
  • Ohio State and Georgia held off pesky rivals and remained the clear top two
  • Tennessee crushed Kentucky ahead of the Gameday showdown in Athens
  • Illinois keeps rolling and climbing

GT Check-In

  • Current Record: 3-5
  • Current Ranking and Rating: 87th, -5.6 rating
  • Record Expectations (based on underlying stats): 2.75-5.25
  • Future Expectations (based on TBI): 1.24-2.76
  • Final Projected Record: 4.24-7.76

Tracking the Model

The Binion Index had another disappointing week, hitting only 47% of games ATS and posting a not so good 14.2 average absolute error. We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.

The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of almost 50 different models. After nine weeks, the Binion Index would be 12th overall ATS and 31st in absolute error.

Season to Date ATS: 50.0%

ATS Goal: >=55%

Season to Date Absolute Error: 13.2

Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5

Week 9 Ratings

TBI Week 9

Ranking Team Week 9 Rating Last Week Rating
Ranking Team Week 9 Rating Last Week Rating
1 Ohio State 37.9 35.2
2 Georgia 32.4 31.5
3 Michigan 28.3 25.4
4 Alabama 28.2 27.6
5 Tennessee 27.7 23.3
6 Oregon 23.5 21
7 Illinois 21.7 18
8 LSU 20.9 19.8
9 Utah 18.2 18.3
10 Mississippi State 17.7 16.7
11 Clemson 15.6 16.8
12 Penn State 15.5 15.6
13 Kansas State 14.9 8.7
14 Wisconsin 14.5 14
15 UCLA 14.2 10.4
16 Minnesota 13.8 10.9
17 Maryland 13.4 12
18 TCU 12.7 11.6
19 USC 12.2 12.7
20 Purdue 11.4 11.3
21 Texas 11.2 11
22 Iowa State 10.8 12.6
23 Oregon State 10.7 10.4
24 Notre Dame 10.4 9.3
25 Syracuse 10 13.6
26 South Alabama 9.9 4.7
27 Florida State 9.5 9
28 Wake Forest 9.5 13.6
29 Washington 9.4 8.9
30 Toledo 9.1 8.8
31 Baylor 8.9 6.8
32 Boise State 8.8 3.7
33 Missouri 8.4 4.6
34 Kentucky 7.6 10.7
35 Oklahoma 7.5 5.1
36 Louisville 7.4 2.6
37 UT San Antonio 7.4 6.9
38 Houston 7.3 6.5
39 UCF 7 6.4
40 Arkansas 6.9 5.4
41 Pittsburgh 6.8 8.5
42 James Madison 6.3 4.4
43 NC State 6.2 7.2
44 Ole Miss 5.7 6.3
45 Texas A&M 5.6 5
46 East Carolina 5.5 4.7
47 UAB 5.4 12.5
48 Washington State 5.2 4.4
49 San José State 5 3.7
50 Western Kentucky 4.9 4
51 Appalachian State 4.8 2.8
52 Oklahoma State 4.8 8.9
53 North Carolina 4.4 3.5
54 Cincinnati 4.3 4.1
55 Marshall 4.2 2.9
56 Air Force 4.1 3.8
57 Kansas 3.7 2.2
58 Liberty 3.2 3.5
59 Buffalo 3.1 2
60 Tulane 3.1 2.7
61 Texas Tech 1.7 5.5
62 Iowa 0.5 -2.9
63 Tulsa 0.2 0.4
64 Duke -0.5 -1.8
65 Troy -0.5 0.2
66 Miami -0.6 1.1
67 BYU -1 0.1
68 South Carolina -1.2 2.1
69 Georgia State -1.5 -2.2
70 Coastal Carolina -1.7 -2
71 Louisiana -2.3 0.4
72 Florida -2.4 0.7
73 SMU -2.5 -0.9
74 Arizona State -2.9 -5.7
75 Virginia -3 -4.9
76 Army -3.2 -2.4
77 West Virginia -3.6 -1.6
78 Nebraska -4.5 -2.4
79 Auburn -4.6 -2.1
80 Fresno State -4.6 -2.6
81 Georgia Southern -4.7 -4.3
82 Memphis -5 -4.4
83 Kent State -5.2 -4.7
84 Connecticut -5.3 -6.4
85 North Texas -5.4 -6.3
86 Southern Mississippi -5.4 -7.7
87 Georgia Tech -5.6 -5.3
88 Texas State -5.6 -6.4
89 Ohio -5.8 -5
90 San Diego State -6.5 -10
91 Ball State -7.3 -7.7
92 Indiana -7.7 -7
93 California -7.8 -6.7
94 Rutgers -8.3 -5.3
95 Florida Atlantic -8.5 -8.3
96 Louisiana Monroe -8.5 -8.8
97 Miami (OH) -8.8 -10.3
98 Michigan State -9.1 -6.9
99 Old Dominion -9.2 -7.6
100 Northwestern -10.2 -8.1
101 South Florida -10.7 -8.3
102 Boston College -10.8 -9.1
103 Central Michigan -10.8 -8.8
104 Rice -11.1 -3.2
105 Eastern Michigan -11.4 -9.8
106 Vanderbilt -11.9 -11.7
107 Virginia Tech -12.3 -13
108 Utah State -12.5 -11.6
109 Stanford -12.9 -9.5
110 Middle Tennessee -13.2 -14.9
111 Arizona -13.7 -14.6
112 Northern Illinois -13.7 -12.2
113 UNLV -15.2 -14.6
114 Louisiana Tech -15.3 -17.4
115 Temple -15.6 -14.8
116 New Mexico State -15.8 -17.6
117 Wyoming -16 -16.7
118 UTEP -16.8 -15.8
119 Western Michigan -17.9 -15.4
120 Charlotte -18 -22.2
121 Hawai'i -18.3 -17.9
122 Arkansas State -18.5 -14.8
123 Navy -19.1 -17.1
124 Akron -19.2 -18.9
125 Bowling Green -19.8 -18.9
126 Florida International -20.8 -19.4
127 Colorado State -21.5 -16.3
128 New Mexico -22.4 -21.1
129 Nevada -23.6 -21.7
130 UMass -25.4 -24.4
131 Colorado -29.6 -27.2

Conference and Division Ratings

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