clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

The Binion Index Week 8

Oregon is on fire, Ole Miss gets exposed, and GT loses ground

By Robert Binion
/ new
NCAA Football: UCLA at Oregon Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

National Headlines

  • Oregon validated their TBI rating with an awesome win over UCLA
  • Ole Miss validated TBI’s skepticism by getting run over by LSU
  • The top three is still the top three
  • Clemson is fine, but is getting closer and closer to a playoff lock because of the ACC’s weakness
  • Illinois has gone from a -6.0 preseason rating to +18.0. Incredible job by Bielema and company this year

GT Check-In

  • Current Record: 3-4
  • Current Ranking and Rating: 86th, -5.3 rating
  • Record Expectations (based on underlying stats): 2.72-4.28
  • Future Expectations (based on TBI): 1.38-3.62
  • Final Projected Record: 4.38-7.62

Tracking the Model

The Binion Index had a frustrating week, hitting only 45% of games ATS but posting a really solid 12.2 average absolute error. We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.

The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of almost 50 different models. After eight weeks, the Binion Index would be 9th overall ATS and 29th in absolute error.

Season to Date ATS: 50.4%

ATS Goal: >=55%

Season to Date Absolute Error: 13.1

Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5

Week 8 Ratings

The Binion Index Week 8

Ranking Team Week 8 Rating Last Week Rating
Ranking Team Week 8 Rating Last Week Rating
1 Ohio State 35.2 37.8
2 Georgia 31.5 33.1
3 Alabama 27.6 26.6
4 Michigan 25.4 23.3
5 Tennessee 23.3 18.5
6 Oregon 21 19.3
7 LSU 19.8 14.6
8 Utah 18.3 17.6
9 Illinois 18 15.4
10 Clemson 16.8 16.9
11 Mississippi State 16.7 15.4
12 Penn State 15.6 11.6
13 Wisconsin 14 11.7
14 Wake Forest 13.6 12
15 Syracuse 13.6 10.2
16 USC 12.7 11.1
17 Iowa State 12.6 11.9
18 UAB 12.5 13.4
19 Maryland 12 11.3
20 TCU 11.6 11.6
21 Purdue 11.3 12.4
22 Texas 11 14.2
23 Minnesota 10.9 11
24 Kentucky 10.7 10.8
25 UCLA 10.4 11.1
26 Oregon State 10.4 6.4
27 Notre Dame 9.3 9.9
28 Florida State 9 8
29 Washington 8.9 8.8
30 Oklahoma State 8.9 5.7
31 Toledo 8.8 8.2
32 Kansas State 8.7 8
33 Pittsburgh 8.5 9.5
34 NC State 7.2 7.2
35 UT San Antonio 6.9 7.7
36 Baylor 6.8 8.3
37 Houston 6.5 2.4
38 UCF 6.4 10.3
39 Ole Miss 6.3 8.4
40 Texas Tech 5.5 1.2
41 Arkansas 5.4 5.7
42 Oklahoma 5.1 6.7
43 Texas A&M 5 6.4
44 South Alabama 4.7 4.2
45 East Carolina 4.7 0.1
46 Missouri 4.6 2.2
47 James Madison 4.4 6.1
48 Washington State 4.4 2.9
49 Cincinnati 4.1 6.8
50 Western Kentucky 4 4
51 Air Force 3.8 7.4
52 Boise State 3.7 3
53 San José State 3.7 2.6
54 North Carolina 3.5 4.4
55 Liberty 3.5 -0.4
56 Marshall 2.9 2.3
57 Appalachian State 2.8 2
58 Tulane 2.7 2.4
59 Louisville 2.6 1
60 Kansas 2.2 0.9
61 South Carolina 2.1 2
62 Buffalo 2 1.2
63 Miami 1.1 5.7
64 Florida 0.7 1.8
65 Tulsa 0.4 1
66 Louisiana 0.4 -2.6
67 Troy 0.2 0.5
68 BYU 0.1 4.9
69 SMU -0.9 -0.2
70 West Virginia -1.6 1
71 Duke -1.8 -6.2
72 Coastal Carolina -2 -1.9
73 Auburn -2.1 -0.8
74 Georgia State -2.2 3
75 Nebraska -2.4 -1.2
76 Army -2.4 -4.9
77 Fresno State -2.6 -4
78 Iowa -2.9 1.2
79 Rice -3.2 -6.1
80 Georgia Southern -4.3 -6.5
81 Memphis -4.4 -4.1
82 Kent State -4.7 -7
83 Virginia -4.9 -6.1
84 Ohio -5 -5.8
85 Georgia Tech -5.3 -3.5
86 Rutgers -5.3 -8.4
87 Arizona State -5.7 -8.2
88 North Texas -6.3 -5.7
89 Texas State -6.4 -7.4
90 Connecticut -6.4 -7.5
91 California -6.7 -5.5
92 Michigan State -6.9 -5
93 Indiana -7 -5.1
94 Old Dominion -7.6 -5.2
95 Southern Mississippi -7.7 -6.2
96 Ball State -7.7 -6.3
97 Northwestern -8.1 -8.2
98 Florida Atlantic -8.3 -7.1
99 South Florida -8.3 -7.1
100 Louisiana Monroe -8.8 -6.1
101 Central Michigan -8.8 -8.2
102 Boston College -9.1 -7.2
103 Stanford -9.5 -9.6
104 Eastern Michigan -9.8 -11.4
105 San Diego State -10 -13
106 Miami (OH) -10.3 -11
107 Utah State -11.6 -9.4
108 Vanderbilt -11.7 -11.9
109 Northern Illinois -12.2 -10.5
110 Virginia Tech -13 -10.3
111 Arizona -14.6 -12.8
112 UNLV -14.6 -14.9
113 Arkansas State -14.8 -12.5
114 Temple -14.8 -12.9
115 Middle Tennessee -14.9 -12.7
116 Western Michigan -15.4 -13.1
117 UTEP -15.8 -15.6
118 Colorado State -16.3 -18.3
119 Wyoming -16.7 -17.4
120 Navy -17.1 -13.2
121 Louisiana Tech -17.4 -15.4
122 New Mexico State -17.6 -16.4
123 Hawai'i -17.9 -17.3
124 Akron -18.9 -19.2
125 Bowling Green -18.9 -21
126 Florida International -19.4 -23.8
127 New Mexico -21.1 -18
128 Nevada -21.7 -19.5
129 Charlotte -22.2 -17.6
130 UMass -24.4 -23.9
131 Colorado -27.2 -21

Conference and Division Ratings

Loading comments...