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The Binion Index Week 7

Rocky Top Rules the Week, Michigan Keeps Rising, and Illinois Deserves Attention

By Robert Binion
/ new
NCAA Football: Alabama at Tennessee Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

National Headlines

  • Tennessee dethrones Alabama but doesn’t move in the rankings, as Alabama had the slight edge in post-game win expectancy
  • Oregon has dominated everyone since Week 1 and has rocketed up the ratings
  • Illinois cracks the Top Ten after dominating Minnesota
  • Colorado wins and isn’t on the bottom anymore!

GT Check-In

  • Current Record: 3-3
  • Current Ranking and Rating: 76th, -3.5 rating
  • Record Expectations (based on underlying stats): 2.56-3.44
  • Future Expectations (based on TBI): 1.98-4.02
  • Final Projected Record: 5.0-7.0

Tracking the Model

The Binion Index has continued to trend in good direction performance-wise, hitting 53% or higher for the fourth straight week. We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.

The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of almost 50 different models. After five weeks, the Binion Index would be 6th overall ATS and 28th in absolute error.

Season to Date ATS: 51.1%

ATS Goal: >=55%

Season to Date Absolute Error: 13.2

Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5

Week 7 Ratings

The Binion Index Week 7

Rank Team Week 7 Rating Last Week Rating
Rank Team Week 7 Rating Last Week Rating
1 Ohio State 37.8 38.4
2 Georgia 33.1 31.3
3 Alabama 26.6 27.5
4 Michigan 23.3 21.7
5 Oregon 19.3 18.8
6 Tennessee 18.5 19.6
7 Utah 17.6 20.8
8 Clemson 16.9 18.1
9 Mississippi State 15.4 16.4
10 Illinois 15.4 12
11 LSU 14.6 14.5
12 Texas 14.2 15.1
13 UAB 13.4 12.7
14 Purdue 12.4 12.9
15 Wake Forest 12 12.3
16 Iowa State 11.9 9.7
17 Wisconsin 11.7 13.5
18 TCU 11.6 13.3
19 Penn State 11.6 13.2
20 Maryland 11.3 11.2
21 UCLA 11.1 11
22 USC 11.1 10.3
23 Minnesota 11 15.7
24 Kentucky 10.8 9.9
25 UCF 10.3 7.2
26 Syracuse 10.2 9
27 Notre Dame 9.9 9.8
28 Pittsburgh 9.5 9.5
29 Washington 8.8 8.7
30 Ole Miss 8.4 10.3
31 Baylor 8.3 8.9
32 Toledo 8.2 5.9
33 Florida State 8 8.2
34 Kansas State 8 7.9
35 UT San Antonio 7.7 4.7
36 Air Force 7.4 4.2
37 NC State 7.2 9.3
38 Cincinnati 6.8 7.7
39 Oklahoma 6.7 8.5
40 Texas A&M 6.4 6.1
41 Oregon State 6.4 4.4
42 James Madison 6.1 10.8
43 Oklahoma State 5.7 6
44 Miami 5.7 4.1
45 Arkansas 5.7 3.4
46 BYU 4.9 9.4
47 North Carolina 4.4 5.3
48 South Alabama 4.2 3.9
49 Western Kentucky 4 2.5
50 Georgia State 3 3.5
51 Boise State 3 3.2
52 Washington State 2.9 6.2
53 San José State 2.6 3.1
54 Tulane 2.4 3.2
55 Houston 2.4 3
56 Marshall 2.3 6.7
57 Missouri 2.2 1.4
58 Appalachian State 2 3.4
59 South Carolina 2 1.7
60 Florida 1.8 3.7
61 Iowa 1.2 1.3
62 Texas Tech 1.2 1.2
63 Buffalo 1.2 -0.7
64 Tulsa 1 1.4
65 Louisville 1 1.3
66 West Virginia 1 1.1
67 Kansas 0.9 -1.4
68 Troy 0.5 0.9
69 East Carolina 0.1 -1.4
70 SMU -0.2 -0.9
71 Liberty -0.4 0.5
72 Auburn -0.8 -1.1
73 Nebraska -1.2 -1.6
74 Coastal Carolina -1.9 2.1
75 Louisiana -2.6 -2.8
76 Georgia Tech -3.5 -4.3
77 Fresno State -4 -4.1
78 Memphis -4.1 -3.6
79 Army -4.9 -6.8
80 Michigan State -5 -6.3
81 Indiana -5.1 -5.4
82 Old Dominion -5.2 -9.7
83 California -5.5 -4.5
84 North Texas -5.7 -7.2
85 Ohio -5.8 -7.2
86 Virginia -6.1 -6.3
87 Rice -6.1 -6.5
88 Louisiana Monroe -6.1 -6.6
89 Duke -6.2 -6.1
90 Southern Mississippi -6.2 -7
91 Ball State -6.3 -5.8
92 Georgia Southern -6.5 -7.5
93 Kent State -7 -4.7
94 Florida Atlantic -7.1 -6.9
95 South Florida -7.1 -7.5
96 Boston College -7.2 -6.8
97 Texas State -7.4 -7.7
98 Connecticut -7.5 -9.5
99 Arizona State -8.2 -6.9
100 Northwestern -8.2 -7.5
101 Central Michigan -8.2 -7.6
102 Rutgers -8.4 -9.1
103 Utah State -9.4 -13.1
104 Stanford -9.6 -12.5
105 Virginia Tech -10.3 -8.5
106 Northern Illinois -10.5 -12.6
107 Miami (OH) -11 -8.7
108 Eastern Michigan -11.4 -9
109 Vanderbilt -11.9 -9.7
110 Arkansas State -12.5 -14.3
111 Middle Tennessee -12.7 -9.7
112 Arizona -12.8 -13.8
113 Temple -12.9 -12.2
114 San Diego State -13 -12.3
115 Western Michigan -13.1 -13.1
116 Navy -13.2 -13.3
117 UNLV -14.9 -10.4
118 Louisiana Tech -15.4 -16.5
119 UTEP -15.6 -14.9
120 New Mexico State -16.4 -19.2
121 Hawai'i -17.3 -22.3
122 Wyoming -17.4 -16.8
123 Charlotte -17.6 -17.3
124 New Mexico -18 -17.7
125 Colorado State -18.3 -19.9
126 Akron -19.2 -19.8
127 Nevada -19.5 -19.2
128 Bowling Green -21 -26
129 Colorado -21 -26.8
130 Florida International -23.8 -22.9
131 UMass -23.9 -22.6

Conference and Division Ratings

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