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The Binion Index Week 6

Tennessee looks the part, UCLA cranks it up, GT jumps way up, and Week 7 Looks Awesome

By Robert Binion
/ new
NCAA Football: Tennessee at Louisiana State Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

National Headlines

  • Tennessee crushes LSU and leaps to #6 before the showdown with Alabama
  • UCLA does whatever it wants against Utah and jumps up
  • Ohio State cruised again to extend the Buckeyes’ hold on the top spot
  • Oklahoma looks broken and drops almost 30 spots

GT Check-In

  • Current Record: 3-3
  • Current Ranking and Rating: 78th, -4.3 rating
  • Record Expectations (based on underlying stats): 2.56-3.44
  • Future Expectations (based on TBI): 1.87-4.13
  • Final Projected Record: 4.9-7.1

Tracking the Model

The Binion Index has continued to trend in good direction performance-wise, hitting about 53% ATS this week after two weeks around 60%. We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.

The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of almost 50 different models. After five weeks, the Binion Index would be 4th overall ATS and 29th in absolute error.

Season to Date ATS: 50.8%

ATS Goal: >=55%

Season to Date Absolute Error: 13.3

Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5

Week 6 Ratings

TBI Ratings Week 6

Rank Team Week 6 Rating
Rank Team Week 6 Rating
1 Ohio State 38.4
2 Georgia 31.3
3 Alabama 27.5
4 Michigan 21.7
5 Utah 20.8
6 Tennessee 19.6
7 Oregon 18.8
8 Clemson 18.1
9 Mississippi State 16.4
10 Minnesota 15.7
11 Texas 15.1
12 LSU 14.5
13 Wisconsin 13.5
14 TCU 13.3
15 Penn State 13.2
16 Purdue 12.9
17 UAB 12.7
18 Wake Forest 12.3
19 Illinois 12
20 Maryland 11.2
21 UCLA 11
22 James Madison 10.8
23 Ole Miss 10.3
24 USC 10.3
25 Kentucky 9.9
26 Notre Dame 9.8
27 Iowa State 9.7
28 Pittsburgh 9.5
29 BYU 9.4
30 NC State 9.3
31 Syracuse 9
32 Baylor 8.9
33 Washington 8.7
34 Oklahoma 8.5
35 Florida State 8.2
36 Kansas State 7.9
37 Cincinnati 7.7
38 UCF 7.2
39 Marshall 6.7
40 Washington State 6.2
41 Texas A&M 6.1
42 Oklahoma State 6
43 Toledo 5.9
44 North Carolina 5.3
45 UT San Antonio 4.7
46 Oregon State 4.4
47 Air Force 4.2
48 Miami 4.1
49 South Alabama 3.9
50 Florida 3.7
51 Georgia State 3.5
52 Appalachian State 3.4
53 Arkansas 3.4
54 Boise State 3.2
55 Tulane 3.2
56 San José State 3.1
57 Houston 3
58 Western Kentucky 2.5
59 Coastal Carolina 2.1
60 South Carolina 1.7
61 Missouri 1.4
62 Tulsa 1.4
63 Iowa 1.3
64 Louisville 1.3
65 Texas Tech 1.2
66 West Virginia 1.1
67 Troy 0.9
68 Liberty 0.5
69 Buffalo -0.7
70 SMU -0.9
71 Auburn -1.1
72 East Carolina -1.4
73 Kansas -1.4
74 Nebraska -1.6
75 Louisiana -2.8
76 Memphis -3.6
77 Fresno State -4.1
78 Georgia Tech -4.3
79 California -4.5
80 Kent State -4.7
81 Indiana -5.4
82 Ball State -5.8
83 Duke -6.1
84 Michigan State -6.3
85 Virginia -6.3
86 Rice -6.5
87 Louisiana Monroe -6.6
88 Army -6.8
89 Boston College -6.8
90 Arizona State -6.9
91 Florida Atlantic -6.9
92 Southern Mississippi -7
93 North Texas -7.2
94 Ohio -7.2
95 Georgia Southern -7.5
96 Northwestern -7.5
97 South Florida -7.5
98 Central Michigan -7.6
99 Texas State -7.7
100 Virginia Tech -8.5
101 Miami (OH) -8.7
102 Eastern Michigan -9
103 Rutgers -9.1
104 Connecticut -9.5
105 Middle Tennessee -9.7
106 Old Dominion -9.7
107 Vanderbilt -9.7
108 UNLV -10.4
109 Temple -12.2
110 San Diego State -12.3
111 Stanford -12.5
112 Northern Illinois -12.6
113 Utah State -13.1
114 Western Michigan -13.1
115 Navy -13.3
116 Arizona -13.8
117 Arkansas State -14.3
118 UTEP -14.9
119 Louisiana Tech -16.5
120 Wyoming -16.8
121 Charlotte -17.3
122 New Mexico -17.7
123 Nevada -19.2
124 New Mexico State -19.2
125 Akron -19.8
126 Colorado State -19.9
127 Hawai'i -22.3
128 UMass -22.6
129 Florida International -22.9
130 Bowling Green -26
131 Colorado -26.8

Conference and Division Ratings

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