Binion Index Bowl Performance
When we first shared bowl picks from TBI, we mentioned the need during bowl season to be particularly attuned to opt-outs and other significant roster shifts. Those changes led me to make a manual adjustment to the picks for 6 bowl games:
- Dropping Oregon by 14 points, as they were missing up to 31 players by the day of the game
- Dropping Pitt by 6 points because of the absence of Kenny Pickett
- Dropping Arizona State by 6 points because of cluster opt outs at RB and CB
- Dropping Rutgers by 6 points because of limited practice and travel difficulties
- Dropping Ohio State by 4 points because of cluster opt out at WR
- Dropping LSU by 10 points because of having only 38 scholarship players available
In those 6 games, we ended up going 5-1 but would have been 1-5 without the adjustments. The actual number of points subtracted was definitely more art than science, and there was certainly luck involved in how well those picks ended up turning out. It does show the importance of paying careful attention to roster updates if you plan to make picks on bowl games.
With those adjustments included, TBI had a masterful bowl season, going 24-13 (65%) with an absolute error of just 12.1 points. That brings us to 413-343-9 (54.6%) with an absolute error of 13.8 points for the season.
Binion Index Post Bowls
After the conclusion of every game except for the CFP Championship, here’s where things stand across the national landscape:
The Binion Index Post Bowls
Ranking | Team | Postseason |
---|---|---|
Ranking | Team | Postseason |
1 | Georgia | 49.07 |
2 | Alabama | 36.99 |
3 | Ohio State | 34.85 |
4 | Cincinnati | 28.81 |
5 | Michigan | 25.97 |
6 | Clemson | 20.48 |
7 | Arkansas | 20.08 |
8 | Utah | 19.57 |
9 | Baylor | 19.56 |
10 | Oklahoma State | 19.04 |
11 | Texas A&M | 18.91 |
12 | Oregon | 18.83 |
13 | Wisconsin | 18.24 |
14 | Florida | 17.73 |
15 | Pittsburgh | 17.56 |
16 | UAB | 17.48 |
17 | Arizona State | 17.31 |
18 | Nebraska | 17.05 |
19 | Notre Dame | 16.77 |
20 | Tennessee | 15.57 |
21 | Iowa State | 15.15 |
22 | NC State | 15 |
23 | Western Michigan | 14.99 |
24 | Coastal Carolina | 14.96 |
25 | Mississippi State | 14.86 |
26 | Houston | 14.5 |
27 | Oklahoma | 14.28 |
28 | Kentucky | 14.25 |
29 | Michigan State | 14.25 |
30 | Penn State | 13.82 |
31 | Ole Miss | 13.72 |
32 | Appalachian State | 13.16 |
33 | Purdue | 12.51 |
34 | Minnesota | 12.41 |
35 | Western Kentucky | 12.34 |
36 | Kansas State | 12.07 |
37 | Auburn | 10.96 |
38 | Maryland | 9.71 |
39 | Fresno State | 9.06 |
40 | BYU | 8.8 |
41 | Toledo | 7.68 |
42 | Oregon State | 7.52 |
43 | UCLA | 7.45 |
44 | Louisville | 7.31 |
45 | UCF | 6.99 |
46 | Liberty | 6.95 |
47 | SMU | 6.73 |
48 | LSU | 6.04 |
49 | Florida State | 5.91 |
50 | Iowa | 5.83 |
51 | Texas | 5.29 |
52 | North Carolina | 5.07 |
53 | Miami | 4.78 |
54 | Army | 4.71 |
55 | Wake Forest | 4.08 |
56 | Louisiana | 3.64 |
57 | West Virginia | 3.56 |
58 | South Carolina | 3.46 |
59 | TCU | 3.22 |
60 | Georgia State | 2.99 |
61 | Tulsa | 2.75 |
62 | Texas Tech | 2.66 |
63 | Virginia | 2.62 |
64 | Air Force | 1.74 |
65 | Washington State | 1.62 |
66 | Boise State | 1.15 |
67 | Miami (OH) | 0.48 |
68 | Syracuse | 0.21 |
69 | Utah State | -0.23 |
70 | San Diego State | -0.59 |
71 | UTEP | -1.66 |
72 | California | -2.22 |
73 | UT San Antonio | -2.33 |
74 | Central Michigan | -2.51 |
75 | Missouri | -2.54 |
76 | Boston College | -2.93 |
77 | Marshall | -3.39 |
78 | Illinois | -3.53 |
79 | Colorado State | -3.66 |
80 | Nevada | -3.74 |
81 | Washington | -4.38 |
82 | East Carolina | -4.44 |
83 | Virginia Tech | -5.26 |
84 | Kent State | -6.03 |
85 | Troy | -6.24 |
86 | Memphis | -6.3 |
87 | Tulane | -6.32 |
88 | Wyoming | -6.76 |
89 | Old Dominion | -6.86 |
90 | USC | -7.18 |
91 | Georgia Tech | -7.35 |
92 | Florida Atlantic | -7.46 |
93 | Hawai'i | -8.28 |
94 | Northern Illinois | -9.27 |
95 | South Alabama | -9.56 |
96 | Rutgers | -9.75 |
97 | Indiana | -11.02 |
98 | North Texas | -11.32 |
99 | Northwestern | -11.33 |
100 | Middle Tennessee | -11.4 |
101 | Louisiana Tech | -12.61 |
102 | San José State | -12.66 |
103 | Arizona | -12.84 |
104 | Ohio | -13.76 |
105 | Navy | -13.93 |
106 | Colorado | -15.27 |
107 | Eastern Michigan | -15.43 |
108 | South Florida | -17.35 |
109 | Rice | -17.63 |
110 | Stanford | -18.75 |
111 | Bowling Green | -18.79 |
112 | Ball State | -18.81 |
113 | Duke | -19.16 |
114 | Southern Mississippi | -19.25 |
115 | Georgia Southern | -19.72 |
116 | Temple | -20.58 |
117 | UNLV | -20.62 |
118 | Charlotte | -21.93 |
119 | Buffalo | -22.84 |
120 | Louisiana Monroe | -23.59 |
121 | Vanderbilt | -24.41 |
122 | Florida International | -25.02 |
123 | Texas State | -25.62 |
124 | Arkansas State | -26.13 |
125 | Akron | -26.65 |
126 | Kansas | -27.87 |
127 | New Mexico State | -30.02 |
128 | New Mexico | -33.88 |
129 | Connecticut | -35.92 |
130 | UMass | -36.2 |
Season-Long Ratings Changes
I thought another interesting exercise would be to examine whose rating changed most (in both directions) over the course of the season. This provides some helpful data for seeing who impressed and who disappointed most over the course of the season.
The Binion Index Rating Changes
Team | 2021 Preseason Rating | Postseason | Season Change |
---|---|---|---|
Team | 2021 Preseason Rating | Postseason | Season Change |
Georgia | 23.84 | 49.07 | 25.23 |
Cincinnati | 5.57 | 28.81 | 23.24 |
Arkansas | -2.75 | 20.08 | 22.83 |
Baylor | 0.4 | 19.56 | 19.16 |
UTEP | -19.77 | -1.66 | 18.11 |
Coastal Carolina | -3.02 | 14.96 | 17.98 |
Tennessee | -1.45 | 15.57 | 17.02 |
Western Kentucky | -4.06 | 12.34 | 16.4 |
Western Michigan | -0.98 | 14.99 | 15.97 |
Pittsburgh | 2.22 | 17.56 | 15.34 |
Nebraska | 1.8 | 17.05 | 15.25 |
Kansas State | -3.18 | 12.07 | 15.25 |
Air Force | -13.36 | 1.74 | 15.1 |
Oregon State | -6.93 | 7.52 | 14.45 |
Army | -9.37 | 4.71 | 14.08 |
Liberty | -6.84 | 6.95 | 13.79 |
UAB | 3.76 | 17.48 | 13.72 |
Houston | 1.62 | 14.5 | 12.88 |
Kentucky | 1.67 | 14.25 | 12.58 |
Purdue | 0.04 | 12.51 | 12.47 |
Oklahoma State | 6.75 | 19.04 | 12.29 |
Ohio State | 22.7 | 34.85 | 12.15 |
Maryland | -2.25 | 9.71 | 11.96 |
Michigan | 14.42 | 25.97 | 11.55 |
Old Dominion | -18.01 | -6.86 | 11.15 |
Michigan State | 3.44 | 14.25 | 10.81 |
BYU | -1.78 | 8.8 | 10.58 |
NC State | 4.74 | 15 | 10.26 |
Georgia State | -6.23 | 2.99 | 9.22 |
Arizona State | 8.71 | 17.31 | 8.6 |
Tulsa | -5.3 | 2.75 | 8.05 |
Louisville | -0.58 | 7.31 | 7.89 |
Texas A&M | 11.03 | 18.91 | 7.88 |
Minnesota | 4.82 | 12.41 | 7.59 |
Ole Miss | 6.61 | 13.72 | 7.11 |
SMU | -0.3 | 6.73 | 7.03 |
Iowa State | 8.57 | 15.15 | 6.58 |
Mississippi State | 8.39 | 14.86 | 6.47 |
South Alabama | -15.93 | -9.56 | 6.37 |
East Carolina | -10.71 | -4.44 | 6.27 |
Utah | 13.47 | 19.57 | 6.1 |
Syracuse | -5.49 | 0.21 | 5.7 |
Toledo | 2.15 | 7.68 | 5.53 |
Florida | 12.23 | 17.73 | 5.5 |
Miami (OH) | -5.01 | 0.48 | 5.49 |
Kent State | -11.23 | -6.03 | 5.2 |
Appalachian State | 8.03 | 13.16 | 5.13 |
Oregon | 13.71 | 18.83 | 5.12 |
Central Michigan | -7.56 | -2.51 | 5.05 |
Alabama | 31.97 | 36.99 | 5.02 |
South Carolina | -0.86 | 3.46 | 4.32 |
UCLA | 3.19 | 7.45 | 4.26 |
Illinois | -7.53 | -3.53 | 4 |
Navy | -16.94 | -13.93 | 3.01 |
Florida State | 3.26 | 5.91 | 2.65 |
Fresno State | 6.41 | 9.06 | 2.65 |
UT San Antonio | -4.94 | -2.33 | 2.61 |
Bowling Green | -21.27 | -18.79 | 2.48 |
Wisconsin | 15.81 | 18.24 | 2.43 |
Texas Tech | 0.27 | 2.66 | 2.39 |
Rutgers | -11.92 | -9.75 | 2.17 |
Wake Forest | 2.1 | 4.08 | 1.98 |
Virginia | 0.88 | 2.62 | 1.74 |
Utah State | -1.88 | -0.23 | 1.65 |
Louisiana | 2.36 | 3.64 | 1.28 |
West Virginia | 2.32 | 3.56 | 1.24 |
Notre Dame | 15.59 | 16.77 | 1.18 |
Colorado State | -3.84 | -3.66 | 0.18 |
San Diego State | -0.66 | -0.59 | 0.07 |
Rice | -17.37 | -17.63 | -0.26 |
Iowa | 6.43 | 5.83 | -0.6 |
Northern Illinois | -8.56 | -9.27 | -0.71 |
Nevada | -2.61 | -3.74 | -1.13 |
San José State | -11.22 | -12.66 | -1.44 |
Penn State | 15.58 | 13.82 | -1.76 |
Auburn | 13.22 | 10.96 | -2.26 |
Texas | 7.81 | 5.29 | -2.52 |
Washington State | 4.3 | 1.62 | -2.68 |
Marshall | -0.4 | -3.39 | -2.99 |
Hawai'i | -4.87 | -8.28 | -3.41 |
California | 1.88 | -2.22 | -4.1 |
North Carolina | 9.2 | 5.07 | -4.13 |
Wyoming | -2.33 | -6.76 | -4.43 |
New Mexico State | -25.5 | -30.02 | -4.52 |
Boston College | 1.88 | -2.93 | -4.81 |
TCU | 8.2 | 3.22 | -4.98 |
UCF | 12.74 | 6.99 | -5.75 |
Missouri | 3.95 | -2.54 | -6.49 |
Northwestern | -4.43 | -11.33 | -6.9 |
Boise State | 8.62 | 1.15 | -7.47 |
Georgia Tech | 0.27 | -7.35 | -7.62 |
Tulane | 1.45 | -6.32 | -7.77 |
UNLV | -12.81 | -20.62 | -7.81 |
Akron | -18.29 | -26.65 | -8.36 |
Virginia Tech | 3.56 | -5.26 | -8.82 |
Middle Tennessee | -2.36 | -11.4 | -9.04 |
Connecticut | -26.81 | -35.92 | -9.11 |
Oklahoma | 23.4 | 14.28 | -9.12 |
Louisiana Monroe | -14.35 | -23.59 | -9.24 |
North Texas | -1.82 | -11.32 | -9.5 |
Troy | 3.33 | -6.24 | -9.57 |
Ball State | -8.96 | -18.81 | -9.85 |
Miami | 15.15 | 4.78 | -10.37 |
Charlotte | -11.51 | -21.93 | -10.42 |
Clemson | 31.13 | 20.48 | -10.65 |
Louisiana Tech | -1.73 | -12.61 | -10.88 |
LSU | 17.42 | 6.04 | -11.38 |
UMass | -24.56 | -36.2 | -11.64 |
Kansas | -16.09 | -27.87 | -11.78 |
Arizona | -1 | -12.84 | -11.84 |
Eastern Michigan | -3.3 | -15.43 | -12.13 |
Memphis | 6.09 | -6.3 | -12.39 |
Georgia Southern | -7.16 | -19.72 | -12.56 |
Colorado | -2.19 | -15.27 | -13.08 |
Ohio | 0.5 | -13.76 | -14.26 |
Texas State | -11.23 | -25.62 | -14.39 |
Florida Atlantic | 7.73 | -7.46 | -15.19 |
Temple | -5.31 | -20.58 | -15.27 |
Duke | -3.87 | -19.16 | -15.29 |
Indiana | 4.42 | -11.02 | -15.44 |
Southern Mississippi | -1.64 | -19.25 | -17.61 |
New Mexico | -16.18 | -33.88 | -17.7 |
Stanford | -0.64 | -18.75 | -18.11 |
Vanderbilt | -5.94 | -24.41 | -18.47 |
South Florida | 1.31 | -17.35 | -18.66 |
USC | 12.19 | -7.18 | -19.37 |
Buffalo | -3.37 | -22.84 | -19.47 |
Washington | 16.94 | -4.38 | -21.32 |
Florida International | -2.06 | -25.02 | -22.96 |
Arkansas State | -1.13 | -26.13 | -25 |
National Championship Prediction
We have one game left before the long off-season officially commences. As you all know, it’s an All-SEC Championship Game rematch. Kirby Smart is desperate to get the ever-growing Saban monster off of his back, as he has now lost his first 4 appearances against his old mentor.
Vegas has settled in with UGA favored by 3, and the betting vig indicates that more handle is coming in on Alabama so far. After another incredibly dominant performance in the Rose Bowl, Georgia remains in a class by itself in The Binion Index.
Vegas: UGA by 3
TBI Pick: UGA by 12
Roll Tide.