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The Binion Index Week 3

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Good news for GT fans: The Jackets crack the top 50! Bad news for GT fans: UGA is a solid #2

Georgia Tech v Clemson Photo by Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images

As we unveil week 3 of the Binion Index, let’s do some quick hitters about some of the more interesting ratings and rankings.

  • Predictably, UGA comfortably passes Clemson after another dominant showing by the Dawgs and a less than stellar performance by Clemson’s offense.
  • Our Jackets, significantly outperforming expectations of the model, find themselves in the top 50 for the first time this season. 1-2 isn’t the record the fanbase wanted, but the underlying numbers are pointing in a good direction.
  • The B1G race is absolutely fascinating; Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Penn State take up 4 spots between rankings 5-9.
  • Clemson has had one of the biggest rating drops in the country from preseason, down 8 points after three weeks.
  • Cincinnati has some competition for the top G5 spot from quickly rising Fresno State.
  • UConn’s rating might improve if they just stopped showing up. Sheesh.

We will continue to track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.

The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of almost 50 different models. After three weeks, the Binion Index would be 3rd overall ATS and above average in absolute error.

Season to Date ATS: 76-63-5 (54.5%)

ATS Goal: >=55%

Season to Date Absolute Error: 14.19

Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5

Note:

  • We are still missing play by play data for a few early season games, but finally, every team at least has something. That helps our predictive accuracy as we continue turning up the weighting given to current season games in comparison to preseason ratings.

The Binion Index Week 3

Rank Team Week 3
Rank Team Week 3
1 Alabama 27.33
2 Georgia 24.95
3 Clemson 23.44
4 Oklahoma 18.22
5 Ohio State 18.01
6 Michigan 15.66
7 Florida 15.4
8 Wisconsin 15.27
9 Penn State 14.98
10 Auburn 14.22
11 LSU 13.89
12 Washington 12.02
13 UCF 11.79
14 Texas A&M 11.58
15 Oregon 11.13
16 Cincinnati 11.08
17 Arizona State 11.02
18 Ole Miss 10.37
19 Notre Dame 10.29
20 Fresno State 10.28
21 Baylor 10.16
22 Appalachian State 9.63
23 Utah 9.25
24 Mississippi State 9.15
25 North Carolina 8.56
26 UAB 8.55
27 Arkansas 8.31
28 Michigan State 8.28
29 Texas Tech 7.95
30 NC State 7.77
31 Iowa State 7.67
32 USC 7.56
33 Florida Atlantic 7.16
34 Boston College 6.09
35 Iowa 6.07
36 Miami 5.94
37 Nebraska 5.71
38 UCLA 5.24
39 SMU 4.79
40 Troy 4.73
41 Maryland 4.47
42 Houston 3.63
43 Texas 3.61
44 Missouri 3.48
45 Memphis 3.2
46 Kentucky 3.17
47 Purdue 3.13
48 Pittsburgh 3.08
49 Georgia Tech 3.05
50 Virginia Tech 3.04
51 Oklahoma State 3
52 Boise State 2.86
53 Minnesota 2.84
54 Virginia 2.84
55 Wake Forest 2.48
56 San Diego State 2.46
57 TCU 2.33
58 Washington State 2.05
59 Florida State 1.82
60 Louisiana 1.64
61 Western Kentucky 1.63
62 Indiana 1.39
63 Tulane 1.39
64 California 1.14
65 West Virginia 1.14
66 Stanford 1.02
67 Marshall 0.94
68 Kansas State 0.71
69 Tennessee 0.54
70 UT San Antonio -0.14
71 Western Michigan -0.44
72 Coastal Carolina -0.77
73 Liberty -0.78
74 Wyoming -0.81
75 Syracuse -0.89
76 Louisville -0.9
77 Toledo -0.94
78 South Carolina -1.37
79 Oregon State -1.55
80 Colorado State -1.94
81 BYU -1.96
82 Utah State -2.06
83 Colorado -2.16
84 Nevada -2.21
85 Duke -2.32
86 Army -2.72
87 Southern Mississippi -3.41
88 Tulsa -3.59
89 Louisiana Tech -3.9
90 South Florida -3.96
91 Northwestern -3.98
92 Arizona -4.61
93 Arkansas State -4.66
94 North Texas -5.11
95 Ohio -5.46
96 Rutgers -5.5
97 Central Michigan -5.57
98 Georgia State -5.78
99 Kent State -6.73
100 Florida International -6.9
101 Eastern Michigan -7.01
102 Temple -7.35
103 Hawai'i -7.58
104 Buffalo -8.04
105 Illinois -9.17
106 South Alabama -9.17
107 San José State -9.65
108 East Carolina -10.27
109 Vanderbilt -10.28
110 Air Force -10.42
111 UTEP -10.98
112 Miami (OH) -11.06
113 New Mexico -11.35
114 Charlotte -11.4
115 Northern Illinois -11.7
116 Old Dominion -11.83
117 Middle Tennessee -12.68
118 Akron -13.15
119 Ball State -13.32
120 Georgia Southern -13.35
121 Texas State -13.35
122 Bowling Green -17.24
123 UNLV -17.34
124 Kansas -18.08
125 UMass -21.51
126 Navy -22.02
127 Rice -22.88
128 New Mexico State -23.84
129 Louisiana Monroe -25.88
130 Connecticut -32.54