The Binion Index Week 3

As we unveil week 3 of the Binion Index, let’s do some quick hitters about some of the more interesting ratings and rankings.

• Predictably, UGA comfortably passes Clemson after another dominant showing by the Dawgs and a less than stellar performance by Clemson’s offense.
• Our Jackets, significantly outperforming expectations of the model, find themselves in the top 50 for the first time this season. 1-2 isn’t the record the fanbase wanted, but the underlying numbers are pointing in a good direction.
• The B1G race is absolutely fascinating; Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Penn State take up 4 spots between rankings 5-9.
• Clemson has had one of the biggest rating drops in the country from preseason, down 8 points after three weeks.
• Cincinnati has some competition for the top G5 spot from quickly rising Fresno State.
• UConn’s rating might improve if they just stopped showing up. Sheesh.

We will continue to track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.

The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of almost 50 different models. After three weeks, the Binion Index would be 3rd overall ATS and above average in absolute error.

Season to Date ATS: 76-63-5 (54.5%)

ATS Goal: >=55%

Season to Date Absolute Error: 14.19

Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5

Note:

• We are still missing play by play data for a few early season games, but finally, every team at least has something. That helps our predictive accuracy as we continue turning up the weighting given to current season games in comparison to preseason ratings.