clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

The Binion Index Week 2

New, 2 comments

The model’s off to a strong start, and we introduce schedule adjustments this week

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: SEP 11 Kennesaw State at Georgia Tech Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Of course, every model produces simultaneous reactions of “How could you have Team X so low” and “How could you have team Team Y so high.” The most fun version of this is when Team X beat Team Y. Two cases in point: Clemson still leads UGA in the model, and GT is well ahead of NIU.

What’s going on? A model like this one is not a power ranking based off of past results. It is meant to be forward-facing and predictive. In the case of GT and NIU, NIU won by one point in a game that the underlying statistics show that GT would win 75% of the time. The model reflects that, as the current ratings would still have GT as an 11 point favorite over NIU on a neutral field. And that should track with our intuition that if GT played NIU again, they would still be a significant favorite.

In the case of UGA and Clemson, UGA has clearly performed better so far this season. Because of that, they have made up about 4 points on Clemson compared to where they were in the preseason. The preseason ratings still hold about a 70% after just two weeks of games to avoid overreacting to a singular positive or negative performance. If Georgia and Clemson maintain their courses of play for the rest of the season, Georgia will of course pass Clemson. But as of now, the model would still give Clemson a slight edge on a neutral field.

Of course, no model is perfect, and in the first season of running mine, I know that it has significant weaknesses. But we can track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.

The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of almost 50 different models. After two weeks, the Binion Index would be 2nd overall ATS and above average in absolute error.

Season to Date ATS: 50-41-5 (54.7%)

ATS Goal: 55%

Season to Date Absolute Error: 13.95

Absolute Error Goal: 12.5

Notes:

  • There’s some bigger changes this week, as we introduce an adjustment for strength of schedule and continue cranking up the weighting giving to current season games in comparison to preseason ratings.
  • There are still a number of games with no play by play data (including 2 teams who don’t have data for either game), so a few teams (i.e. San Jose State) are way off where they would be if the data was available.

The Binion Index Week 2

Rank Team Rating
Rank Team Rating
1 Alabama 30.39
2 Clemson 26.49
3 Georgia 22.51
4 Oklahoma 20.06
5 Ohio State 19.39
6 Penn State 15.46
7 Wisconsin 15.45
8 Auburn 15.13
9 LSU 14.52
10 Florida 13.89
11 Michigan 13.07
12 Washington 12.96
13 UCF 12.86
14 Notre Dame 12.57
15 Oregon 12.19
16 Utah 12.01
17 Miami 10.72
18 Arizona State 10.69
19 Cincinnati 10.67
20 Texas A&M 10.55
21 Fresno State 10.06
22 North Carolina 9.34
23 Appalachian State 9.07
24 Iowa State 8.79
25 Ole Miss 8.67
26 Mississippi State 8.39
27 Florida Atlantic 7.13
28 Michigan State 6.86
29 USC 6.75
30 Texas 6.7
31 Boise State 6.65
32 Iowa 6.55
33 UCLA 6.16
34 Memphis 6.15
35 Baylor 5.81
36 TCU 5.63
37 NC State 5.6
38 UAB 5.47
39 San Diego State 5.27
40 Tulane 4.86
41 SMU 4.83
42 Virginia Tech 4.73
43 Wake Forest 4.72
44 Washington State 4.68
45 Nebraska 4.51
46 Oklahoma State 4.51
47 Pittsburgh 4.5
48 Boston College 4.33
49 Kentucky 4.3
50 Troy 4.25
51 Indiana 4.17
52 Georgia Tech 3.79
53 Texas Tech 3.79
54 Florida State 3.68
55 Marshall 3.68
56 Missouri 3.62
57 Virginia 3.62
58 Minnesota 3.44
59 Purdue 3.12
60 Arkansas 2.82
61 West Virginia 2.75
62 Maryland 2.59
63 Toledo 2.5
64 California 2.35
65 Houston 1.99
66 Southern Mississippi 1.72
67 Louisiana 1.68
68 Colorado 1.53
69 Western Michigan 1.49
70 South Carolina 1.34
71 Louisville 0.62
72 Stanford 0.45
73 Western Kentucky 0.4
74 Tennessee 0.31
75 Kansas State 0.15
76 Nevada 0.06
77 BYU -0.06
78 Coastal Carolina -0.1
79 Ohio -0.13
80 North Texas -0.16
81 Utah State -0.17
82 Duke -1.13
83 Arkansas State -1.15
84 Louisiana Tech -1.34
85 Florida International -1.49
86 Colorado State -1.68
87 Wyoming -1.73
88 UT San Antonio -1.86
89 Tulsa -2.06
90 Middle Tennessee -2.36
91 Arizona -2.46
92 Northwestern -2.47
93 South Florida -2.93
94 Liberty -2.95
95 Central Michigan -3.12
96 Oregon State -3.39
97 Temple -3.63
98 Syracuse -4.27
99 Kent State -5.06
100 Old Dominion -5.33
101 Illinois -5.38
102 Buffalo -5.49
103 Miami (OH) -5.53
104 Hawai'i -5.8
105 Vanderbilt -6.27
106 Northern Illinois -6.38
107 Georgia State -6.42
108 Air Force -6.84
109 Army -6.88
110 Georgia Southern -7.02
111 Ball State -7.12
112 Rutgers -7.55
113 Charlotte -7.72
114 Eastern Michigan -7.79
115 East Carolina -8.44
116 New Mexico -9.12
117 Texas State -10.05
118 South Alabama -10.42
119 San José State -11.22
120 UTEP -11.81
121 UNLV -12.16
122 Kansas -12.75
123 Akron -15.24
124 Louisiana Monroe -15.98
125 Navy -16.07
126 Rice -16.49
127 Bowling Green -16.95
128 UMass -19.76
129 New Mexico State -22.43
130 Connecticut -23.44