The Binion Index Week 14: Final Regular Season Ratings and Bowl Predictions

Championship weekend was a blast, the bowls are set, and our model has had a solid first year

By Robert Binion@robert_binion Dec 7, 2021, 8:00am EST

NCAA Football: SEC Championship-Georgia vs Alabama

National Headlines

Alabama dominated Georgia and made up 5 points in TBI ratings, but the model would still have UGA as the favorite in a hypothetical National Championship rematch. We will learn a lot from the semi-final performances of both teams.
The playoff includes the teams rated 1,2,4, and 5 in our model. Ohio State played at a high level but obviously didn’t earn a spot on the field.
The model has had Cincinnati as a solid #4 for almost two months now; it’s great to see them rewarded with the first G5 playoff berth.
Utah had two terrible early season losses, but they have rocketed up over the back half of the year. If Ohio State doesn’t have a bunch of opt-outs, the Rose Bowl could be fascinating.
TBI has Army massively favored over Navy this weekend and would certainly take Army -8.5.

Bowl Predictions

TBI Bowl Predictions

Day and Time	Favorite	TBI Rating	Underdog	TBI Rating	Vegas Spread	TBI Spread	TBI Pick ATS
Day and Time	Favorite	TBI Rating	Underdog	TBI Rating	Vegas Spread	TBI Spread	TBI Pick ATS
2021-12-17 12:00	Toledo	8.16	Middle Tennessee	-12.09	-9.5	-20.25	Toledo
2021-12-17 18:00	Coastal Carolina	13.91	Northern Illinois	-7.71	-10	-21.62	Coastal Carolina
2021-12-18 11:00	Appalachian State	13.61	Western Kentucky	10.24	-2.5	-3.37	Appalachian State
2021-12-18 14:15	Fresno State	9.46	UTEP	-2.01	-12.5	-11.47	UTEP
2021-12-18 15:30	BYU	8.21	UAB	17.08	-7.5	8.87	UAB
2021-12-18 17:45	Liberty	4.66	Eastern Michigan	-14.58	-8.5	-19.24	Liberty
2021-12-18 19:30	Oregon State	7.53	Utah State	-1.05	-8	-8.58	Oregon State
2021-12-18 21:15	Louisiana	2.42	Marshall	-3.4	-6	-5.82	Marshall
2021-12-20 14:30	Tulsa	1.71	Old Dominion	-6.49	-9.5	-8.2	Old Dominion
2021-12-21 15:30	Wyoming	-7.08	Kent State	-7.36	-3.5	-0.28	Kent State
2021-12-21 19:30	UT San Antonio	-1.78	San Diego State	-3.13	-2	-1.35	San Diego State
2021-12-22 20:00	Army	6.48	Missouri	-3.33	-3.5	-9.81	Army
2021-12-23 15:30	Miami (OH)	-0.56	North Texas	-10.44	-4.5	-9.88	Miami (OH)
2021-12-23 19:00	Florida	19.23	UCF	5.22	-7.5	-14.01	Florida
2021-12-24 20:00	Memphis	-5.72	Hawai'i	-7.36	-3.5	-1.64	Hawai'i
2021-12-25 14:30	Georgia State	-0.14	Ball State	-16.25	-3.5	-16.11	Georgia State
2021-12-27 11:00	Nevada	-0.91	Western Michigan	11.93	-6	12.84	Western Michigan
2021-12-27 14:30	Boston College	-2.71	East Carolina	-4.4	-3.5	-1.69	East Carolina
2021-12-28 12:00	Auburn	11.4	Houston	11.84	-3	0.44	Houston
2021-12-28 15:15	Louisville	7.07	Air Force	1.06	-1.5	-6.01	Louisville
2021-12-28 18:45	Mississippi State	17.81	Texas Tech	-1.48	-8	-19.29	Mississippi State
2021-12-28 20:00	NC State	15.06	UCLA	7.26	-1	-7.8	NC State
2021-12-28 22:15	Minnesota	10.51	West Virginia	2.72	-5	-7.79	Minnesota
2021-12-28 11:00	SMU	6.25	Virginia	3.19	-1.5	-3.06	SMU
2021-12-29 14:15	Virginia Tech	-1.96	Maryland	6.62	-2.5	8.58	Maryland
2021-12-29 17:45	Clemson	20.52	Iowa State	13.23	-1.5	-7.29	Clemson
2021-12-29 21:15	Oklahoma	12.43	Oregon	19.08	-3.5	6.65	Oregon
2021-12-30 11:30	North Carolina	7.08	South Carolina	-0.09	-7	-7.17	North Carolina
2021-12-30 19:00	Pittsburgh	17.29	Michigan State	14.27	-3.5	-3.02	Michigan State
2021-12-30 15:00	Tennessee	15.6	Purdue	13.85	-3	-1.75	Purdue
2021-12-30 22:30	Wisconsin	18.64	Arizona State	17.01	-7.5	-1.63	Arizona State
2021-12-31 11:30	Texas A&M	18.8	Wake Forest	2.4	-5.5	-16.4	Texas A&M
2021-12-31 12:30	Miami	6.18	Washington State	2.85	-1.5	-3.33	Miami
2021-12-31 14:30	Boise State	0.73	Central Michigan	-3.78	-9.5	-4.51	Central Michigan
2021-12-31 15:30	Alabama	35.22	Cincinnati	28.55	-13.5	-6.67	Cincinnati
2021-12-31 19:30	Georgia	45.97	Michigan	26.34	-7.5	-19.63	Georgia
2022-1-1 11:00	Iowa	5.23	Kentucky	15.15	-1	9.92	Kentucky
2022-1-1 11:00	Penn State	14.75	Arkansas	19.32	-3.5	4.57	Arkansas
2022-1-1 13:00	Notre Dame	17.22	Oklahoma State	17.8	-2	0.58	Oklahoma State
2022-1-1 17:00	Ohio State	32.38	Utah	19.49	-7	-12.89	Ohio State
2022-1-1 20:45	Ole Miss	15.36	Baylor	17.3	-2	1.94	Baylor
2022-1-4 21:00	LSU	8.32	Kansas State	8.92	-2.5	0.6	Kansas State

As opt-outs and significant personnel changes are announced, I am going to attempt some manual adjustments later in the process, and I’ll post those changes eventually. For now, pay attention to the news if there is a game where the spread doesn’t make sense.

Tracking the Model

The Binion Index finishes up its first year, and I’m happy with the overall results. Conference Championship week ended with TBI going 6-5 ATS but with a massive 18.2 absolute error. There were some wild results. Looking to the offseason, I’m excited to dig in on some of the teams where the model did the best and worst, to tweak some things in our preseason ratings, and to analyze our in-season weights. We look forward to an even more accurate season 2!

We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.

The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of 54 different models. After 14 weeks, the Binion Index would be 1st overall ATS but 42nd in absolute error. That absolute error number gives us tremendous opportunity for improvement before next year.

Season to Date ATS: 389-329-9 (54.1%)

ATS Goal: >=55%

Season to Date Absolute Error: 13.8

Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5