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The Binion Index Week 14: Final Regular Season Ratings and Bowl Predictions

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Championship weekend was a blast, the bowls are set, and our model has had a solid first year

NCAA Football: SEC Championship-Georgia vs Alabama Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

National Headlines

  • Alabama dominated Georgia and made up 5 points in TBI ratings, but the model would still have UGA as the favorite in a hypothetical National Championship rematch. We will learn a lot from the semi-final performances of both teams.
  • The playoff includes the teams rated 1,2,4, and 5 in our model. Ohio State played at a high level but obviously didn’t earn a spot on the field.
  • The model has had Cincinnati as a solid #4 for almost two months now; it’s great to see them rewarded with the first G5 playoff berth.
  • Utah had two terrible early season losses, but they have rocketed up over the back half of the year. If Ohio State doesn’t have a bunch of opt-outs, the Rose Bowl could be fascinating.
  • TBI has Army massively favored over Navy this weekend and would certainly take Army -8.5.

Bowl Predictions

TBI Bowl Predictions

Day and Time Favorite TBI Rating Underdog TBI Rating Vegas Spread TBI Spread TBI Pick ATS
Day and Time Favorite TBI Rating Underdog TBI Rating Vegas Spread TBI Spread TBI Pick ATS
2021-12-17 12:00 Toledo 8.16 Middle Tennessee -12.09 -9.5 -20.25 Toledo
2021-12-17 18:00 Coastal Carolina 13.91 Northern Illinois -7.71 -10 -21.62 Coastal Carolina
2021-12-18 11:00 Appalachian State 13.61 Western Kentucky 10.24 -2.5 -3.37 Appalachian State
2021-12-18 14:15 Fresno State 9.46 UTEP -2.01 -12.5 -11.47 UTEP
2021-12-18 15:30 BYU 8.21 UAB 17.08 -7.5 8.87 UAB
2021-12-18 17:45 Liberty 4.66 Eastern Michigan -14.58 -8.5 -19.24 Liberty
2021-12-18 19:30 Oregon State 7.53 Utah State -1.05 -8 -8.58 Oregon State
2021-12-18 21:15 Louisiana 2.42 Marshall -3.4 -6 -5.82 Marshall
2021-12-20 14:30 Tulsa 1.71 Old Dominion -6.49 -9.5 -8.2 Old Dominion
2021-12-21 15:30 Wyoming -7.08 Kent State -7.36 -3.5 -0.28 Kent State
2021-12-21 19:30 UT San Antonio -1.78 San Diego State -3.13 -2 -1.35 San Diego State
2021-12-22 20:00 Army 6.48 Missouri -3.33 -3.5 -9.81 Army
2021-12-23 15:30 Miami (OH) -0.56 North Texas -10.44 -4.5 -9.88 Miami (OH)
2021-12-23 19:00 Florida 19.23 UCF 5.22 -7.5 -14.01 Florida
2021-12-24 20:00 Memphis -5.72 Hawai'i -7.36 -3.5 -1.64 Hawai'i
2021-12-25 14:30 Georgia State -0.14 Ball State -16.25 -3.5 -16.11 Georgia State
2021-12-27 11:00 Nevada -0.91 Western Michigan 11.93 -6 12.84 Western Michigan
2021-12-27 14:30 Boston College -2.71 East Carolina -4.4 -3.5 -1.69 East Carolina
2021-12-28 12:00 Auburn 11.4 Houston 11.84 -3 0.44 Houston
2021-12-28 15:15 Louisville 7.07 Air Force 1.06 -1.5 -6.01 Louisville
2021-12-28 18:45 Mississippi State 17.81 Texas Tech -1.48 -8 -19.29 Mississippi State
2021-12-28 20:00 NC State 15.06 UCLA 7.26 -1 -7.8 NC State
2021-12-28 22:15 Minnesota 10.51 West Virginia 2.72 -5 -7.79 Minnesota
2021-12-28 11:00 SMU 6.25 Virginia 3.19 -1.5 -3.06 SMU
2021-12-29 14:15 Virginia Tech -1.96 Maryland 6.62 -2.5 8.58 Maryland
2021-12-29 17:45 Clemson 20.52 Iowa State 13.23 -1.5 -7.29 Clemson
2021-12-29 21:15 Oklahoma 12.43 Oregon 19.08 -3.5 6.65 Oregon
2021-12-30 11:30 North Carolina 7.08 South Carolina -0.09 -7 -7.17 North Carolina
2021-12-30 19:00 Pittsburgh 17.29 Michigan State 14.27 -3.5 -3.02 Michigan State
2021-12-30 15:00 Tennessee 15.6 Purdue 13.85 -3 -1.75 Purdue
2021-12-30 22:30 Wisconsin 18.64 Arizona State 17.01 -7.5 -1.63 Arizona State
2021-12-31 11:30 Texas A&M 18.8 Wake Forest 2.4 -5.5 -16.4 Texas A&M
2021-12-31 12:30 Miami 6.18 Washington State 2.85 -1.5 -3.33 Miami
2021-12-31 14:30 Boise State 0.73 Central Michigan -3.78 -9.5 -4.51 Central Michigan
2021-12-31 15:30 Alabama 35.22 Cincinnati 28.55 -13.5 -6.67 Cincinnati
2021-12-31 19:30 Georgia 45.97 Michigan 26.34 -7.5 -19.63 Georgia
2022-1-1 11:00 Iowa 5.23 Kentucky 15.15 -1 9.92 Kentucky
2022-1-1 11:00 Penn State 14.75 Arkansas 19.32 -3.5 4.57 Arkansas
2022-1-1 13:00 Notre Dame 17.22 Oklahoma State 17.8 -2 0.58 Oklahoma State
2022-1-1 17:00 Ohio State 32.38 Utah 19.49 -7 -12.89 Ohio State
2022-1-1 20:45 Ole Miss 15.36 Baylor 17.3 -2 1.94 Baylor
2022-1-4 21:00 LSU 8.32 Kansas State 8.92 -2.5 0.6 Kansas State

As opt-outs and significant personnel changes are announced, I am going to attempt some manual adjustments later in the process, and I’ll post those changes eventually. For now, pay attention to the news if there is a game where the spread doesn’t make sense.

Tracking the Model

The Binion Index finishes up its first year, and I’m happy with the overall results. Conference Championship week ended with TBI going 6-5 ATS but with a massive 18.2 absolute error. There were some wild results. Looking to the offseason, I’m excited to dig in on some of the teams where the model did the best and worst, to tweak some things in our preseason ratings, and to analyze our in-season weights. We look forward to an even more accurate season 2!

We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.

The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of 54 different models. After 14 weeks, the Binion Index would be 1st overall ATS but 42nd in absolute error. That absolute error number gives us tremendous opportunity for improvement before next year.

Season to Date ATS: 389-329-9 (54.1%)

ATS Goal: >=55%

Season to Date Absolute Error: 13.8

Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5

The Binion Index Week 14

Rank Team Week 14
Rank Team Week 14
1 Georgia 45.97
2 Alabama 35.22
3 Ohio State 32.38
4 Cincinnati 28.55
5 Michigan 26.34
6 Clemson 20.52
7 Utah 19.49
8 Arkansas 19.32
9 Florida 19.23
10 Oregon 19.08
11 Texas A&M 18.8
12 Wisconsin 18.64
13 Mississippi State 17.81
14 Oklahoma State 17.8
15 Baylor 17.3
16 Pittsburgh 17.29
17 Notre Dame 17.22
18 Nebraska 17.09
19 UAB 17.08
20 Arizona State 17.01
21 Tennessee 15.6
22 Ole Miss 15.36
23 Kentucky 15.15
24 NC State 15.06
25 Penn State 14.75
26 Michigan State 14.27
27 Coastal Carolina 13.91
28 Purdue 13.85
29 Appalachian State 13.61
30 Iowa State 13.23
31 Oklahoma 12.43
32 Western Michigan 11.93
33 Houston 11.84
34 Auburn 11.4
35 Minnesota 10.51
36 Western Kentucky 10.24
37 Fresno State 9.46
38 Kansas State 8.92
39 LSU 8.32
40 BYU 8.21
41 Toledo 8.16
42 Oregon State 7.53
43 UCLA 7.26
44 North Carolina 7.08
45 Louisville 7.07
46 Maryland 6.62
47 Army 6.48
48 Florida State 6.28
49 SMU 6.25
50 Miami 6.18
51 Texas 5.6
52 Iowa 5.23
53 UCF 5.22
54 Liberty 4.66
55 TCU 3.45
56 Virginia 3.19
57 Washington State 2.85
58 West Virginia 2.72
59 Louisiana 2.42
60 Wake Forest 2.4
61 Tulsa 1.71
62 Air Force 1.06
63 Boise State 0.73
64 Syracuse 0.38
65 South Carolina -0.09
66 Georgia State -0.14
67 Miami (OH) -0.56
68 Nevada -0.91
69 California -1.01
70 Utah State -1.05
71 Texas Tech -1.48
72 UT San Antonio -1.78
73 Virginia Tech -1.96
74 UTEP -2.01
75 Boston College -2.71
76 Illinois -2.72
77 San Diego State -3.13
78 Colorado State -3.29
79 Missouri -3.33
80 Marshall -3.4
81 Washington -3.76
82 Central Michigan -3.78
83 East Carolina -4.4
84 Memphis -5.72
85 Tulane -5.8
86 USC -6.21
87 Troy -6.23
88 Georgia Tech -6.28
89 Old Dominion -6.49
90 Wyoming -7.08
91 Florida Atlantic -7.1
92 Hawai'i -7.36
93 Kent State -7.36
94 Northern Illinois -7.71
95 South Alabama -8.17
96 Rutgers -8.24
97 Northwestern -10.25
98 North Texas -10.44
99 Indiana -10.47
100 Louisiana Tech -11.43
101 Arizona -11.82
102 Middle Tennessee -12.09
103 San José State -12.13
104 Ohio -13.99
105 Colorado -14.5
106 Eastern Michigan -14.58
107 Ball State -16.25
108 South Florida -16.59
109 Navy -16.82
110 Rice -17.42
111 Stanford -17.66
112 Bowling Green -17.7
113 Duke -18
114 Georgia Southern -19.05
115 Southern Mississippi -19.14
116 UNLV -19.24
117 Temple -19.99
118 Charlotte -21.97
119 Buffalo -22.43
120 Vanderbilt -22.98
121 Louisiana Monroe -23.03
122 Texas State -24.73
123 Florida International -24.94
124 Arkansas State -25.21
125 Akron -25.44
126 Kansas -26.64
127 New Mexico State -29.38
128 New Mexico -32.83
129 UMass -34.95
130 Connecticut -35.35