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The Binion Index Week 10

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The model and the CFP Committee don’t see eye to eye, and the Bindex officially gives GT a 0% chance in COFH!

Georgia Tech v Miami Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images

National Headlines

  • Georgia dominates for the ninth straight game and looks historically good.
  • Bindex has a pretty clear top 4 of UGA, Bama, Ohio State, and Cincy. That’s been the case for about a month, but of course the CFP rankings aren’t quite there on Cincy.
  • Florida loses its fifth game and barely slips out of the top 10, while Clemson finally takes the kind of fall we have all been waiting for.
  • Wake lost its first, as Vegas and the Bindex saw coming. They were stationary in the ratings.

GT Check-In

  • Current Record: 3-6
  • Current Ranking and Rating: 71st, -1.07 rating
  • Record Expectations (based on underlying stats): 4.19-4.81
  • Future Expectations (based on TBI): 0.73-2.27
  • Final Projected Record: 3.73-8.27

GT Remaining Win Probabilities

Opponent Win Probability for GT
Opponent Win Probability for GT
BC 0.58
ND 0.16
UGA 0

I’m very excited that the Binion Index now matches my eye test and officially gives GT a 0% chance of winning on the Saturday after Thanksgiving. Things are going great.

Tracking the Model

The Binion Index surged in week 10, hitting 58% ATS with a mean error of 12.2 points. That’s a solid winning week.

We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.

The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of almost 50 different models. After seven weeks, the Binion Index would be 2nd overall ATS and 31st in absolute error.

Season to Date ATS: 278-243-8 (53.3%)

ATS Goal: >=55%

Season to Date Absolute Error: 13.5

Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5

The Binion Index Week 10

Team Week 10
Team Week 10
Georgia 43.11
Alabama 32.15
Ohio State 27.81
Cincinnati 21.42
Oregon 20.71
Wisconsin 20.67
Pittsburgh 20.36
Michigan 20.13
Arizona State 18.22
Texas A&M 18.14
Florida 17.31
Coastal Carolina 17.2
Baylor 16.93
UAB 16.88
Arkansas 16.84
Mississippi State 16.66
Nebraska 16.6
Oklahoma State 15.83
Clemson 15.52
NC State 14.57
Iowa State 14.48
Penn State 14.38
Ole Miss 14.27
Michigan State 14.23
Oklahoma 14.19
Utah 13.91
Auburn 13.37
Tennessee 12.81
Kansas State 11.57
Notre Dame 11.11
Appalachian State 10.92
Liberty 10.55
Purdue 10.44
Western Michigan 9.72
Fresno State 9.42
Houston 9.09
LSU 8.4
BYU 7.92
Florida State 6.8
Iowa 6.66
Minnesota 6.42
SMU 6.38
Oregon State 6.26
Kentucky 6.21
UCF 5.59
Western Kentucky 5.53
Syracuse 5.04
Louisville 4.5
Maryland 4.44
TCU 4.24
Texas 3.68
Miami 3.59
North Carolina 3.3
Virginia 3.08
San Diego State 2.74
UT San Antonio 2.56
South Carolina 2.08
Louisiana 2.04
West Virginia 1.66
Colorado State 1.53
Wake Forest 0.91
Marshall 0.85
UCLA 0.74
Washington 0.55
Toledo 0.52
Texas Tech 0.09
Boise State -0.04
Washington State -0.1
Troy -0.27
California -0.73
Georgia Tech -1.07
Florida Atlantic -1.22
South Alabama -1.42
Boston College -1.47
Army -1.48
Georgia State -1.6
Missouri -1.66
Tulsa -1.73
Memphis -2.53
Nevada -2.8
Air Force -3.11
East Carolina -3.2
UTEP -3.22
Illinois -3.43
Northwestern -4.6
Rutgers -5.01
Miami (OH) -5.52
USC -5.89
Kent State -5.9
Old Dominion -6.1
Indiana -6.28
Utah State -6.31
Wyoming -6.81
San José State -6.92
Central Michigan -7.22
Duke -7.47
Virginia Tech -7.66
Tulane -9.05
Stanford -9.1
Louisiana Tech -9.11
Northern Illinois -9.16
Arizona -9.67
Hawai'i -11.16
Eastern Michigan -11.22
Rice -11.7
Middle Tennessee -11.72
Colorado -11.95
South Florida -12.52
Bowling Green -12.96
Ohio -13.01
North Texas -13.17
Ball State -15.09
Temple -16.92
Navy -17.86
Southern Mississippi -18.04
Vanderbilt -18.08
UNLV -18.39
Georgia Southern -18.92
Buffalo -19.19
Charlotte -19.63
Akron -20.04
Florida International -21.09
Texas State -23.66
New Mexico -25.82
Louisiana Monroe -26.5
Kansas -29.64
Arkansas State -30.66
New Mexico State -35.05
UMass -35.47
Connecticut -37.49