The Binion Index Week 10

National Headlines

• Georgia dominates for the ninth straight game and looks historically good.
• Bindex has a pretty clear top 4 of UGA, Bama, Ohio State, and Cincy. That’s been the case for about a month, but of course the CFP rankings aren’t quite there on Cincy.
• Florida loses its fifth game and barely slips out of the top 10, while Clemson finally takes the kind of fall we have all been waiting for.
• Wake lost its first, as Vegas and the Bindex saw coming. They were stationary in the ratings.

GT Check-In

• Current Record: 3-6
• Current Ranking and Rating: 71st, -1.07 rating
• Record Expectations (based on underlying stats): 4.19-4.81
• Future Expectations (based on TBI): 0.73-2.27
• Final Projected Record: 3.73-8.27

I’m very excited that the Binion Index now matches my eye test and officially gives GT a 0% chance of winning on the Saturday after Thanksgiving. Things are going great.

Tracking the Model

The Binion Index surged in week 10, hitting 58% ATS with a mean error of 12.2 points. That’s a solid winning week.

We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.

The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of almost 50 different models. After seven weeks, the Binion Index would be 2nd overall ATS and 31st in absolute error.

Season to Date ATS: 278-243-8 (53.3%)

ATS Goal: >=55%

Season to Date Absolute Error: 13.5

Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5