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The Binion Index Week 13

The regular season is over: UGA ran away from the pack, and GT sits in the doldrums. Bonus: Conference Championship Predictions!

By Robert Binion
NCAA Football: Georgia at Georgia Tech Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

National Headlines

  • Georgia is #1 in the country in every ranking and rating system with any credibility. What is different in the Binion Index is the sheer gulf between UGA and everyone else. At the conclusion of the regular season, TBI has the gap between #1 and #2 the same as the gap between #2 and #18. There’s never been a more dominant regular season performance on a play by play basis in the modern era of college football.
  • And unfortunately for readers of this site, one of the two teams, Ohio State, who looked to have have any chance of taking down UGA, lost on Saturday and gave up its playoff chances.
  • Cincinnati is a solid #4 and should be win and in for the Playoff.
  • Michigan has had a really solid season and should easily win the B1G title.

Conference Championship Predictions

TBI Conference Championship Weekend Picks

Favorite TBI Rating Underdog TBI Rating Vegas Spread TBI Spread Pick
Favorite TBI Rating Underdog TBI Rating Vegas Spread TBI Spread Pick
Western Kentucky 10.49 UT San Antonio 0.18 -1 -7.81 Western Kentucky
Utah 17.48 Oregon 19.21 -2.5 1.73 Oregon
Oklahoma State 18.22 Baylor 18.38 -4 0.16 Baylor
Kent State -6.3 Northern Illinois -7.79 -3 -1.49 Northern Illinois
San Diego State 0.34 Utah State -8.55 -5.5 -11.39 San Diego State
Appalachian State 13.85 Louisiana 1.45 -2.5 -9.9 Appalachian State
Cincinnati 25.58 Houston 9.66 -10.5 -18.42 Cincinnati
Georgia 47.78 Alabama 32.45 -6.5 -15.33 Georgia
Michigan 23.66 Iowa 4.61 -10.5 -19.05 Michigan
Pittsburgh 15.48 Wake Forest 0.74 -3 -14.74 Pittsburgh
California -0.91 USC -10.16 -3 -11.75 California

GT Check-In

  • Final Record: 3-9
  • Current Ranking and Rating: 86th, -5.75 rating
  • Record Expectations (based on underlying stats): 4.32-7.68
  • Final Strength of Schedule Rating: 4th

Tracking the Model

The Binion Index had a woeful Rivalry week, hitting 48% ATS with a mean error of 15.0 points. It’s going to be interesting doing some offseason work to try to understand better some of the teams the model struggled with most and dialing things in further for next year.

We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.

The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of 54 different models. After 13 weeks, the Binion Index would be 1st overall ATS but 41st in absolute error.

Season to Date ATS: 383-324-9 (54.1%)

ATS Goal: >=55%

Season to Date Absolute Error: 13.8

Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5

The Binion Index Week 13

Rank Team Week 13
Rank Team Week 13
1 Georgia 47.78
2 Ohio State 31.91
3 Alabama 31.73
4 Cincinnati 25.58
5 Michigan 23.66
6 Clemson 20.67
7 Florida 19.11
8 Oregon 19.01
9 Arkansas 18.9
10 Texas A&M 18.71
11 Wisconsin 18.61
12 Oklahoma State 18.22
13 Mississippi State 17.8
14 Utah 17.48
15 UAB 17.37
16 Notre Dame 17
17 Nebraska 16.71
18 Arizona State 16.35
19 Kentucky 15.96
20 Baylor 15.76
21 Pittsburgh 15.48
22 Tennessee 15.28
23 Ole Miss 15.27
24 NC State 15
25 Penn State 14.46
26 Michigan State 14.08
27 Appalachian State 13.85
28 Purdue 13.66
29 Iowa State 13.53
30 Coastal Carolina 13.25
31 Oklahoma 12.37
32 Houston 11.22
33 Auburn 11.2
34 Western Michigan 10.97
35 Minnesota 10.83
36 Western Kentucky 10.49
37 Fresno State 9.83
38 Kansas State 9.15
39 LSU 8.17
40 Toledo 8.08
41 BYU 7.97
42 Louisville 7.57
43 North Carolina 7.53
44 Oregon State 7.44
45 UCLA 7.3
46 Florida State 7
47 Maryland 6.46
48 Army 6.42
49 Texas 6.23
50 Miami 6.16
51 SMU 5.75
52 UCF 4.92
53 Iowa 4.66
54 Liberty 4.53
55 TCU 4.27
56 Virginia 3.56
57 West Virginia 3.24
58 Tulsa 2.67
59 Washington State 2.63
60 Wake Forest 1.88
61 Louisiana 1.6
62 Air Force 0.94
63 Boise State 0.9
64 Syracuse 0.74
65 San Diego State 0.34
66 South Carolina 0.27
67 Georgia State -0.11
68 Nevada -0.78
69 Miami (OH) -0.8
70 California -0.91
71 Texas Tech -0.98
72 Virginia Tech -1.92
73 UT San Antonio -1.98
74 UTEP -2.11
75 Illinois -2.14
76 Boston College -2.56
77 Missouri -2.61
78 Colorado State -3.23
79 Marshall -3.25
80 Central Michigan -3.8
81 Washington -3.9
82 East Carolina -4.31
83 Utah State -4.51
84 Memphis -5.46
85 Tulane -5.66
86 Georgia Tech -5.75
87 Old Dominion -5.91
88 Troy -6.28
89 Kent State -6.3
90 Florida Atlantic -6.55
91 Wyoming -7.27
92 Hawai'i -7.73
93 South Alabama -7.8
94 Rutgers -8.14
95 USC -8.96
96 Northwestern -9.98
97 Northern Illinois -10.21
98 Indiana -10.22
99 North Texas -10.44
100 Louisiana Tech -11.57
101 Arizona -11.6
102 San José State -11.96
103 Middle Tennessee -12.02
104 Ohio -13.9
105 Colorado -13.92
106 Eastern Michigan -13.93
107 Ball State -15.83
108 Navy -16.31
109 South Florida -16.39
110 Bowling Green -17.14
111 Stanford -17.15
112 Rice -17.22
113 Duke -17.55
114 Southern Mississippi -18.79
115 Georgia Southern -18.81
116 UNLV -18.96
117 Temple -19.96
118 Vanderbilt -21.67
119 Charlotte -21.75
120 Buffalo -21.77
121 Louisiana Monroe -22.54
122 Texas State -24.26
123 Florida International -24.36
124 Arkansas State -24.72
125 Akron -24.97
126 Kansas -25.78
127 New Mexico State -28.97
128 New Mexico -32.15
129 UMass -34.33
130 Connecticut -34.61