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The Binion Index Week 12

It’s COFH week, and all signs point to a historical beatdown for our Jackets

By Robert Binion
NCAA Football: Georgia at Georgia Tech Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

National Headlines

  • Georgia dominates for the eleventh straight game and rises to unprecedented heights in our rating.
  • Ohio State edges ahead of ‘Bama; any matchup between our top 3 looks super fun.
  • Cincinnati finally does its thing and jumps back in at 4.
  • Florida’s win-loss record got Dan Mullen fired, but their play by play stats keep them propped up.
  • Our season-long stubborn with keeping Clemson high and Wake low finally got validated!

GT Check-In

  • Current Record: 3-8
  • Current Ranking and Rating: 88th, -5.67 rating
  • Record Expectations (based on underlying stats): 4.31-6.69
  • Future Expectations (based on TBI): 0.0004-0.9996

It happened. We had to go to 4 decimal places.

  • Final Projected Record: 3-9

Tracking the Model

The Binion Index had another solid week ATS in week 12 but had some huge misses, hitting 55% ATS with a mean error of 15.5 points. It’s going to be interesting doing some offseason work to try to understand better some of the bigger misses.

We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.

The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of 54 different models. After 12 weeks, the Binion Index would be 1st overall ATS but 40th in absolute error.

Season to Date ATS: 352-291-8 (54.7%)

ATS Goal: >=55%

Season to Date Absolute Error: 13.7

Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5

The Binion Index Week 12

Rank Team Week 12
Rank Team Week 12
1 Georgia 45.97
2 Ohio State 33.52
3 Alabama 32.45
4 Cincinnati 25.5
5 Michigan 21.97
6 Wisconsin 20.47
7 Florida 20.39
8 Texas A&M 20.24
9 UAB 19.9
10 Oregon 19.21
11 Mississippi State 18.97
12 Clemson 18.48
13 Baylor 18.38
14 Oklahoma State 17.9
15 Nebraska 17.07
16 NC State 16.51
17 Arizona State 16.44
18 Utah 15.68
19 Penn State 15.45
20 Ole Miss 15.38
21 Arkansas 15.35
22 Pittsburgh 15.34
23 Notre Dame 15.25
24 Coastal Carolina 14.09
25 Michigan State 13.96
26 Kentucky 13.8
27 Tennessee 13.7
28 Appalachian State 13.15
29 Iowa State 12.65
30 Purdue 12.28
31 Oklahoma 11.83
32 Auburn 11.64
33 Louisville 10.44
34 Kansas State 10.11
35 Houston 9.66
36 Minnesota 9.23
37 Western Michigan 9.01
38 Fresno State 8.8
39 BYU 8.37
40 Liberty 8.22
41 LSU 7.96
42 Western Kentucky 7.93
43 Oregon State 7.85
44 UCF 7.18
45 Florida State 7.17
46 SMU 7.12
47 North Carolina 6.43
48 Texas 5.9
49 Toledo 5.66
50 TCU 5.59
51 UCLA 4.8
52 Virginia 4.62
53 Iowa 4.61
54 Miami 3.83
55 Army 3.48
56 Tulsa 2.77
57 Maryland 2.65
58 South Carolina 2.41
59 West Virginia 2.08
60 Miami (OH) 2.06
61 Syracuse 1.88
62 Boise State 1.64
63 California 1.49
64 Louisiana 1.45
65 Wake Forest 0.74
66 Marshall 0.35
67 Missouri 0.28
68 UT San Antonio 0.18
69 Washington State -0.17
70 Washington -0.69
71 Boston College -0.83
72 UTEP -1.11
73 Air Force -1.54
74 Georgia State -1.57
75 Colorado State -1.59
76 San Diego State -1.71
77 Nevada -2.33
78 Virginia Tech -2.77
79 Texas Tech -2.99
80 East Carolina -3.1
81 Illinois -3.37
82 Wyoming -3.39
83 Troy -3.93
84 Memphis -3.94
85 Rutgers -3.97
86 Central Michigan -4.06
87 Georgia Tech -5.67
88 Tulane -5.81
89 Florida Atlantic -5.86
90 South Alabama -6.39
91 Old Dominion -7.08
92 Northern Illinois -7.79
93 Northwestern -7.82
94 Kent State -8.38
95 Utah State -8.55
96 Indiana -8.84
97 USC -10.16
98 Louisiana Tech -10.21
99 Hawai'i -11.4
100 San José State -11.42
101 Arizona -12.04
102 Ohio -12.59
103 North Texas -12.74
104 Colorado -13.46
105 Eastern Michigan -14.16
106 Middle Tennessee -14.38
107 Stanford -15.79
108 Duke -15.8
109 South Florida -16.62
110 Ball State -16.86
111 UNLV -17.37
112 Navy -17.54
113 Rice -18.5
114 Georgia Southern -19.08
115 Bowling Green -19.1
116 Temple -19.23
117 Southern Mississippi -20.42
118 Charlotte -21.44
119 Vanderbilt -21.61
120 Akron -22.14
121 Buffalo -22.78
122 Texas State -22.97
123 Louisiana Monroe -23.64
124 Florida International -24.92
125 Kansas -25.49
126 New Mexico -27.88
127 Arkansas State -28.46
128 New Mexico State -32.1
129 UMass -34.29
130 Connecticut -35.04