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The Binion Index Week 11

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From the FTRS perspective, two big takeaways this week: GT falls like a rock. Georgia is perfect, and it’s killing me.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: NOV 13 Boston College at Georgia Tech Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

National Headlines

  • Georgia dominates for the tenth straight game.
  • Alabama and Ohio State would both be underdogs but absolutely could beat UGA.
  • Three loss Wisconsin jumps into the fourth seat. Cincinnati needs to start dominating to make the top 4.
  • Florida looks like a joke, but they were so good on offense that they moved up.
  • Wake squeaks out another one and will continue to have the biggest discrepancy between Bindex and polls.

GT Check-In

  • Current Record: 3-7
  • Current Ranking and Rating: 86th, -4.99 rating
  • Record Expectations (based on underlying stats): 4.30-5.70
  • Future Expectations (based on TBI): 0.07-1.93
  • Final Projected Record: 3.07-8.93

GT Remaining Win Probabilities

Opponent GT Win Probability
Opponent GT Win Probability
@Notre Dame 0.07
UGA 0.001
Total 0.071

Tracking the Model

The Binion Index had its best week of the year in week 11, hitting 67% ATS with a mean error of 13.0 points. That’s another solid winning week.

We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.

The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of almost 50 different models. After eleven weeks, the Binion Index would be 2nd overall ATS and 36th in absolute error.

Season to Date ATS: 318-263-8 (54.7%)

ATS Goal: >=55%

Season to Date Absolute Error: 13.5

Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5

The Binion Index Week 11

Team Week 11
Team Week 11
Georgia 43.86
Alabama 36.36
Ohio State 30.25
Wisconsin 23.25
Cincinnati 22.6
Michigan 21.92
Florida 21.77
Oregon 21.01
UAB 19.87
Baylor 19.66
Arkansas 18.76
Texas A&M 18.31
Arizona State 18.19
Pittsburgh 18.05
Nebraska 17.22
Mississippi State 16.88
Clemson 16.66
NC State 15.94
Oklahoma State 15.33
Utah 14.82
Coastal Carolina 14.31
Notre Dame 13.82
Ole Miss 13.76
Penn State 13.26
Michigan State 13.23
Appalachian State 12.67
Iowa State 12.49
Auburn 12.38
Liberty 11.7
Tennessee 11.28
Kansas State 10.64
Houston 10.41
Oklahoma 10.39
Kentucky 10.16
Fresno State 10.1
Western Michigan 10.01
Purdue 9.86
Oregon State 8.76
SMU 8.2
Western Kentucky 8.1
Louisville 7.75
BYU 7.73
LSU 7.06
Florida State 6.69
North Carolina 6.67
Minnesota 6.4
Texas 5.71
Toledo 5.3
TCU 5.27
Iowa 5.16
Army 4.35
Maryland 4.26
UCF 4.05
Miami 3.98
UT San Antonio 3.89
Syracuse 3.43
UCLA 2.53
Virginia 2.38
Louisiana 1.81
West Virginia 1.42
South Carolina 1.39
Wake Forest 1.21
Boston College 1.2
San Diego State 0.44
Texas Tech 0.36
Missouri -0.11
Georgia State -0.28
Tulsa -0.7
Washington State -0.74
Colorado State -0.75
Boise State -0.84
Nevada -0.96
Miami (OH) -0.99
Air Force -1.24
California -1.43
Washington -1.81
Troy -2.36
East Carolina -2.66
Rutgers -2.7
UTEP -2.9
Florida Atlantic -2.91
Marshall -3.29
Memphis -3.29
Virginia Tech -4.21
Illinois -4.54
Georgia Tech -4.99
Utah State -5.14
South Alabama -5.61
Old Dominion -5.63
Central Michigan -5.97
Northwestern -6.2
Wyoming -6.79
Indiana -7.33
USC -7.77
Kent State -7.88
Northern Illinois -8.94
Tulane -9.02
San José State -9.93
Louisiana Tech -9.94
Duke -10.75
Ohio -11.08
Arizona -11.23
Hawai'i -11.67
Stanford -12.57
Middle Tennessee -13.03
Eastern Michigan -13.25
South Florida -13.66
North Texas -14.18
Colorado -14.3
Ball State -15.31
Rice -16.26
Bowling Green -17.46
Georgia Southern -18.21
Temple -18.98
Charlotte -18.99
Navy -19.04
Southern Mississippi -19.7
UNLV -19.81
Vanderbilt -22.12
Akron -22.35
Florida International -22.59
Texas State -23.83
Buffalo -23.84
Louisiana Monroe -25.94
New Mexico -27.62
Kansas -28.2
Arkansas State -28.99
New Mexico State -29.32
Connecticut -35.34
UMass -37.23