The Binion Index Week 11

National Headlines

• Georgia dominates for the tenth straight game.
• Alabama and Ohio State would both be underdogs but absolutely could beat UGA.
• Three loss Wisconsin jumps into the fourth seat. Cincinnati needs to start dominating to make the top 4.
• Florida looks like a joke, but they were so good on offense that they moved up.
• Wake squeaks out another one and will continue to have the biggest discrepancy between Bindex and polls.

GT Check-In

• Current Record: 3-7
• Current Ranking and Rating: 86th, -4.99 rating
• Record Expectations (based on underlying stats): 4.30-5.70
• Future Expectations (based on TBI): 0.07-1.93
• Final Projected Record: 3.07-8.93

Tracking the Model

The Binion Index had its best week of the year in week 11, hitting 67% ATS with a mean error of 13.0 points. That’s another solid winning week.

We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.

The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of almost 50 different models. After eleven weeks, the Binion Index would be 2nd overall ATS and 36th in absolute error.

Season to Date ATS: 318-263-8 (54.7%)

ATS Goal: >=55%

Season to Date Absolute Error: 13.5

Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5