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The Binion Index Week 9

Georgia races further out in front, and the top 4 looks pretty clear on the eve of the first CFP rankings

By Robert Binion
Florida v South Florida Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

National Headlines

  • Georgia dominates in Jacksonville and pulls away from the pack
  • Pittsburgh and Michigan stumble on the field but not too much in the ratings
  • Coastal falls hard after back to back mediocre outings
  • Wake moves up again! To #60. Their SOS will get a bump once they finally face Clemson.

GT Check-In

  • Current Record: 3-5
  • Current Ranking and Rating: 70th, 0.32 points above average
  • Record Expectations (based on underlying stats): 3.95-4.05
  • Future Expectations (based on TBI): 1:25-2.75
  • Final Projected Record: 4.25- 7.75

GT Remaining Win Probabilities

Opponent GT Projected Win Probabilty
Opponent GT Projected Win Probabilty
Miami 0.38
BC 0.64
ND 0.22
UGA 0.01
Total 1.25

Tracking the Model

The Binion Index bounced back in week 9, hitting 53% ATS with a mean error of 12.4 points. Slightly bumping up schedule adjustments, and further phasing out preseason projections helped get back ahead of Vegas.

We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.

The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of almost 50 different models. After seven weeks, the Binion Index would be 3rd overall ATS and 27th in absolute error.

Season to Date ATS: 243-219-8 (52.6%)

ATS Goal: >=55%

Season to Date Absolute Error: 13.7

Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5

The Binion Index Week 9

Ranking Team Week 9
Ranking Team Week 9
1 Georgia 39.92
2 Alabama 33.31
3 Ohio State 28.78
4 Cincinnati 22.13
5 Florida 20.54
6 Oregon 18.75
7 Pittsburgh 17.96
8 Arkansas 17.65
9 Michigan 17.63
10 Wisconsin 17.61
11 Clemson 17.49
12 Baylor 16.78
13 Mississippi State 16.64
14 Coastal Carolina 16.41
15 Texas A&M 16.41
16 Oklahoma 15.91
17 Nebraska 15.79
18 Auburn 15.13
19 UAB 14.86
20 Arizona State 14.75
21 Penn State 14.51
22 Michigan State 13.75
23 Ole Miss 13.03
24 NC State 12.33
25 Tennessee 12.2
26 Oklahoma State 12.13
27 Iowa State 10.86
28 Western Michigan 10.03
29 Appalachian State 9.89
30 Fresno State 9.87
31 Utah 9.1
32 Notre Dame 8.94
33 Florida State 8.89
34 Purdue 8.88
35 Minnesota 8.6
36 Liberty 8.14
37 LSU 8.08
38 Kansas State 7.91
39 Houston 7.06
40 UCF 6.52
41 Kentucky 6.44
42 Iowa 6.3
43 Oregon State 5.87
44 SMU 5.82
45 Texas 5.65
46 Syracuse 5.49
47 Maryland 5.16
48 Western Kentucky 4.39
49 TCU 4.36
50 BYU 4.25
51 West Virginia 4.25
52 Washington 4.05
53 Virginia 3.88
54 North Carolina 3.04
55 San Diego State 2.95
56 Louisiana 2.59
57 Louisville 2.54
58 Miami 2.28
59 Colorado State 2.15
60 Wake Forest 1.6
61 California 1.46
62 Texas Tech 1.41
63 UCLA 1.35
64 Florida Atlantic 1.24
65 South Alabama 1.18
66 Nevada 0.99
67 Marshall 0.69
68 Washington State 0.45
69 UT San Antonio 0.39
70 Georgia Tech 0.32
71 Troy -0.38
72 Toledo -0.79
73 Boise State -0.87
74 Memphis -1.19
75 Georgia State -1.63
76 UTEP -1.66
77 Boston College -2.39
78 South Carolina -2.49
79 Rutgers -2.56
80 Tulsa -2.59
81 USC -2.84
82 Air Force -3.44
83 Indiana -4.12
84 Army -4.33
85 Stanford -4.43
86 Northwestern -5.01
87 Miami (OH) -5.17
88 Virginia Tech -5.35
89 Duke -5.86
90 Missouri -5.95
91 Illinois -6.73
92 East Carolina -6.86
93 Wyoming -6.98
94 Northern Illinois -7.14
95 Kent State -7.19
96 Central Michigan -7.68
97 Louisiana Tech -7.89
98 Tulane -7.91
99 Utah State -8.29
100 Old Dominion -8.42
101 South Florida -8.72
102 Hawai'i -10.03
103 Middle Tennessee -10.18
104 Eastern Michigan -10.42
105 San José State -10.92
106 Ohio -11.22
107 Arizona -11.6
108 Rice -12.04
109 Temple -12.32
110 Bowling Green -12.89
111 Colorado -12.98
112 Southern Mississippi -13.62
113 North Texas -14.97
114 Ball State -15.18
115 Vanderbilt -15.34
116 Buffalo -16.92
117 Georgia Southern -17.82
118 Navy -18.34
119 UNLV -18.93
120 Florida International -19.55
121 Charlotte -19.87
122 Akron -20.88
123 Texas State -25.7
124 Louisiana Monroe -25.83
125 New Mexico -25.93
126 Kansas -26.99
127 Arkansas State -28.15
128 New Mexico State -32.23
129 Connecticut -34.84
130 UMass -35.13