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The Binion Index Week 5

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‘Bama and UGA further separate themselves while GT falls hard

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: OCT 02 Pitt at Georgia Tech Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

This week provided some high-level matchups that turned into blowouts, leading to further stratification at the top of the model. At the same time, some off the radar games led to some huge risers in the “upper-middle” class.

GT Check-In

  • Current Record: 2-3
  • Current Ranking and Rating: 61st, 1.18 points above average
  • Record Expectations (based on underlying stats): 2.98-2.02
  • Future Expectations (based on TBI): 2.63-4.37
  • Final Projected Record: 4.63-7.37

Week 5 Highlights

  • The model was quite right that neither of the top 2 would be tested. This week, Alabama and Georgia again have name-brand foes in Texas A&M and Auburn, respectively. Once again, TBI has both of them covering, with Alabama by more than a touchdown.
  • Ohio State has bounced back from the surprising Oregon loss to grab a tight hold on the third spot.
  • I expected Clemson to fall hard this week after the preseason rating was further discounted, but they held on to the #4 spot with a victory over Boston College that was statistically more dominant than the scoreboard showed.
  • The G5 is starting to impress TBI: Cincy is 9th, Coastal is 14th, and Fresno is still 17th.
  • TBI has Penn State solidly favored in this week’s B1G showdown between Iowa and Penn State.

Tracking the Model

The Binion Index had its worst prediction week of the season in week 5, hitting 48% ATS with a mean error of 15.3 points. Vegas caught up on several teams this week, and the model was also hurt by some significant injury situations that aren’t currently being reflected (UCF chief among them).

We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.

The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of almost 50 different models. After five weeks, the Binion Index would be 2nd overall ATS and just below average in absolute error.

Season to Date ATS: 137-120-6 (53.2%)

ATS Goal: >=55%

Season to Date Absolute Error: 14.1

Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5

The Binion Index Week 5

Rank Team Week 5
Rank Team Week 5
1 Alabama 32.77
2 Georgia 32.06
3 Ohio State 22.91
4 Clemson 18.98
5 Penn State 17.84
6 Florida 17.36
7 Arizona State 17.15
8 Michigan 16.03
9 Cincinnati 15.66
10 Oklahoma 14.84
11 Auburn 13.93
12 Ole Miss 13.52
13 Pittsburgh 13.41
14 Coastal Carolina 13.23
15 Iowa State 12.46
16 Oregon 11.38
17 Fresno State 11.25
18 Nebraska 10.86
19 Baylor 10.82
20 Arkansas 10.52
21 Appalachian State 10.39
22 Mississippi State 9.98
23 Iowa 9.87
24 Houston 9.53
25 UCF 8.76
26 Michigan State 8.75
27 Utah 8.21
28 Notre Dame 8.18
29 Texas A&M 7.93
30 LSU 7.9
31 Wisconsin 7.88
32 NC State 7.87
33 Maryland 7.2
34 Washington 7.04
35 San Diego State 6.85
36 Boston College 6.01
37 Liberty 5.91
38 Florida Atlantic 5.61
39 Tennessee 5.51
40 SMU 5.47
41 Texas 5.42
42 Texas Tech 5.42
43 Western Michigan 5.41
44 UAB 5.39
45 Kentucky 5.36
46 Purdue 5.18
47 North Carolina 5.1
48 Oregon State 4.7
49 Oklahoma State 3.82
50 Western Kentucky 3.22
51 Troy 3.12
52 Toledo 3.02
53 West Virginia 2.69
54 Minnesota 2.51
55 Marshall 2.41
56 Memphis 1.92
57 USC 1.89
58 Virginia 1.83
59 Wyoming 1.75
60 TCU 1.48
61 Georgia Tech 1.18
62 Kansas State 0.96
63 Miami 0.85
64 BYU 0.77
65 California 0.7
66 UCLA 0.7
67 Stanford 0.53
68 Virginia Tech 0.5
69 Boise State 0.46
70 Florida State 0.37
71 UT San Antonio 0.09
72 Missouri -0.06
73 Wake Forest -0.19
74 Louisiana -0.21
75 Duke -0.31
76 Louisville -0.36
77 Air Force -0.91
78 Colorado State -0.92
79 South Carolina -1.23
80 Army -1.43
81 Washington State -2.79
82 South Alabama -2.96
83 Indiana -3.04
84 Syracuse -3.57
85 Louisiana Tech -3.58
86 Rutgers -3.76
87 Tulane -3.91
88 Nevada -4.38
89 Utah State -5.13
90 Northwestern -5.33
91 Central Michigan -5.53
92 UTEP -5.6
93 Temple -5.76
94 Kent State -5.87
95 Eastern Michigan -6.62
96 South Florida -6.68
97 Southern Mississippi -6.7
98 Georgia Southern -7.03
99 Northern Illinois -7.17
100 Hawai'i -7.47
101 Ohio -7.65
102 Georgia State -8.1
103 Arizona -8.11
104 Rice -8.43
105 East Carolina -8.48
106 Old Dominion -8.67
107 North Texas -8.86
108 Colorado -9.23
109 Tulsa -9.69
110 Illinois -11
111 Charlotte -11.23
112 San José State -11.98
113 Buffalo -12.07
114 Vanderbilt -12.5
115 Florida International -13.56
116 Middle Tennessee -13.73
117 Miami (OH) -14.68
118 UNLV -14.68
119 Arkansas State -15.32
120 Ball State -15.84
121 Akron -16.32
122 Bowling Green -17.06
123 Texas State -17.54
124 New Mexico -18.46
125 Navy -19.15
126 Kansas -22.25
127 New Mexico State -25.93
128 UMass -28.95
129 Louisiana Monroe -29.96
130 Connecticut -32.62