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The Binion Index Week 6

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UGA takes command, Top Ten Coastal, and Top 50 GT

NCAA Football: Georgia Tech at Duke William Howard-USA TODAY Sports

We’ve reached the unofficial halfway point of the college football season. That means I’m already sad that the offseason isn’t far away, but it also means that our data keeps growing, and our model is improving.

This week, I provide one more increase in weighting to strength of schedule now that the sample size has become more meaningful.

GT Check-In

  • Current Record: 3-3
  • Current Ranking and Rating: 48th, 2.97 points above average
  • Record Expectations (based on underlying stats): 3.55-2.45
  • Future Expectations (based on TBI): 2.38-3.62
  • Final Projected Record: 5.38- 6.42

Projected Remaining Win Probabilities

Opponent GT Win Probability
Opponent GT Win Probability
@UVA 0.38
VT 0.7
@Miami 0.42
BC 0.43
@ND 0.21
UGA 0.02

Week 6 Highlights

  • The top 2 has become a top 1, at least for now. Georgia rolls again and begins to separate a bit from ‘Bama. Ohio State is crushing people and pushing towards #2 themselves.
  • As the strength of schedule weight turned up, Florida and Clemson get significant bumps from their extremely difficult schedules to data.
  • Maybe Cincy shouldn’t be the only G5 team in the playoff conversation? Coastal is 7th! They are rolling over everyone in their path.
  • The sickos game of the week might be an SEC matchup? Vandy- South Carolina is ugly.

Tracking the Model

The Binion Index had its best prediction week of the season in week 6, hitting 59% ATS with a mean error of 11.2 points.

We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.

The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of almost 50 different models. After six weeks, the Binion Index would be 2nd overall ATS and 23rd in absolute error.

Season to Date ATS: 167-141-6 (54.1%)

ATS Goal: >=55%

Season to Date Absolute Error: 13.6

Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5

The Binion Index Week 6

Rank Team Week 6 Rating
Rank Team Week 6 Rating
1 Georgia 34.77
2 Alabama 31.76
3 Ohio State 24.99
4 Florida 21.49
5 Clemson 20.53
6 Penn State 19.1
7 Coastal Carolina 18.49
8 Cincinnati 18.33
9 Oklahoma 16.89
10 Michigan 16.29
11 Arizona State 15.99
12 Wisconsin 14.86
13 Baylor 14.49
14 Pittsburgh 14.26
15 Nebraska 14.19
16 Auburn 14.11
17 Oregon 13.81
18 Iowa State 13.25
19 Arkansas 13.11
20 Ole Miss 12.69
21 Fresno State 11.99
22 Michigan State 11.84
23 Texas A&M 11.34
24 UAB 11.28
25 Iowa 11.01
26 Mississippi State 10.64
27 Notre Dame 10.62
28 Utah 10.2
29 Tennessee 9.84
30 LSU 9.26
31 Appalachian State 8.8
32 Maryland 8.59
33 NC State 8.44
34 Houston 7.99
35 San Diego State 7.37
36 Texas 6.83
37 Washington 6.66
38 Boston College 6.54
39 Western Michigan 5.63
40 Liberty 5.42
41 TCU 5.21
42 SMU 5
43 UCF 4.98
44 Purdue 4.53
45 Kentucky 4.35
46 Western Kentucky 3.53
47 Minnesota 3.27
48 Florida State 2.97
49 Georgia Tech 2.97
50 Florida Atlantic 2.92
51 Texas Tech 2.43
52 Oregon State 2.42
53 Virginia 2.36
54 Oklahoma State 2.22
55 North Carolina 1.85
56 West Virginia 1.58
57 Kansas State 1.55
58 Colorado State 1.23
59 Miami 1.23
60 Troy 1.04
61 Toledo 0.73
62 California 0.45
63 UCLA 0.35
64 Stanford 0.03
65 Louisville 0.01
66 BYU -0.04
67 Missouri -0.41
68 Boise State -0.6
69 South Carolina -0.92
70 Kent State -1.15
71 Memphis -1.17
72 Louisiana -1.25
73 Indiana -1.54
74 Wyoming -2.27
75 Marshall -2.54
76 Duke -2.74
77 Army -2.76
78 Nevada -2.77
79 Air Force -2.95
80 Washington State -3.04
81 Virginia Tech -3.07
82 Wake Forest -3.27
83 Syracuse -3.37
84 South Alabama -3.68
85 Louisiana Tech -3.94
86 Rutgers -3.96
87 UT San Antonio -4.02
88 Tulane -4.14
89 Georgia State -4.39
90 USC -4.66
91 Tulsa -5.29
92 UTEP -5.31
93 Northern Illinois -5.5
94 Northwestern -5.66
95 Temple -5.69
96 Rice -6.12
97 South Florida -6.21
98 Southern Mississippi -6.89
99 Old Dominion -7.19
100 Utah State -7.49
101 Central Michigan -7.52
102 Georgia Southern -8.84
103 Eastern Michigan -8.97
104 Arizona -9.03
105 East Carolina -9.3
106 Hawai'i -9.65
107 Colorado -10.06
108 Miami (OH) -10.6
109 Ohio -10.6
110 Vanderbilt -11.45
111 North Texas -11.59
112 Ball State -12.98
113 Illinois -13.63
114 Akron -13.84
115 UNLV -14.22
116 Florida International -14.36
117 Buffalo -14.49
118 Charlotte -14.53
119 Middle Tennessee -15.1
120 San José State -15.72
121 Bowling Green -17.58
122 New Mexico -20.25
123 Navy -20.57
124 Texas State -20.8
125 Kansas -21.65
126 UMass -21.88
127 Arkansas State -23.14
128 New Mexico State -29.7
129 Louisiana Monroe -30.73
130 Connecticut -34.11