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(Very Rough) Computer Projections for 2021 Schedule

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What do the computers see for GT in 2021?

NCAA Football: Georgia Tech at Boston College Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports

Large caveat: computer models have not been updated to account for offseason personnel gains and losses. These numbers will change through the course of the offseason and look different before the start of the season, but I wanted to give a baseline expectation for GT fans looking at the recently released 2021 football schedule.

Trigger Warning: It’s bad.

We used ESPN’s publicly available FPI model, which performed quite well this year, third highest of any model analyzed using Prediction Tracker. Each team receives a rating, and the difference in the ratings is the equivalent of a predicted point spread for the game. We assigned 2.5 points for home field advantage, the historical average notwithstanding the COVID craziness of 2020. Let’s take a look:

FPI Projection for 2021 GT

Team End of 2020 FPI Rating Game Home/Away/Neutral Opponent End of 2020 FPI Rating End of 2020 FPI Win Prob
Team End of 2020 FPI Rating Game Home/Away/Neutral Opponent End of 2020 FPI Rating End of 2020 FPI Win Prob
Georgia Tech -4.7 1 H Northern Illinois -12 0.75
2 H Kennesaw State -25 0.94
3 A Clemson 26.9 0.01
4 H UNC 10.2 0.2
5 H Pitt 5.5 0.3
6 A Duke -7.3 0.5
7 A UVA 2.6 0.25
8 H VT 7.3 0.26
9 A Miami 10.2 0.12
10 H BC 2.9 0.36
11 A ND 19.2 0.03
12 H UGA 22.2 0.05
Season Win Projection 3.72

On average, 3.72 wins. I ran the same numbers using Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings, which are now behind a paywall at ESPN+, and they came out slightly better at 4.5 wins. Still, that’s not the kind of season that is going to make the GT fanbase very happy. This schedule is exceedingly difficult. Here’s to hoping that the infusion of transfer talent, a full offseason of preparation, and the hopeful maturation of a second year starting quarterback give GT a leg up on the computers this fall.