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Georgia Tech Baseball: Advanced Stats 2 - The Search for More Pitching

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Injuries and inexperience have made finding a consistent rotation a nightmare. What do the stats say about where the Jackets should look for stability on the mound?

Danny Karnik/Georgia Tech Athletics

Intro Post Here

With the departure of Brandon Gold to the pros, injuries to players expected to contribute this season, and the struggles of youth, Georgia Tech has been searching for answers on the mound. Sunday starting has been a disaster, and only 2 rotation spots are solidified.

Who will lock down the last 2 starting spots? Today we’ll evaluate all the pitchers who have either started a game this year or pitched at least 10 innings. Then we’ll take a look at their total profiles, including ERA, WHIP, FIP, and K/BB rates.

The Stats

Pitchers17.csv

Pitcher ERA BA Against WHIP FIP BB% K%
Pitcher ERA BA Against WHIP FIP BB% K%
Ben Schniederjans 2.70 0.179 1.20 2.64 11% 25%
Jay Shadday 0.63 0.170 0.78 2.70 4% 25%
Jared Datoc 1.12 0.179 1.19 3.34 13% 26%
Xzavion Curry 4.15 0.289 1.42 3.76 11% 32%
Zac Ryan 2.12 0.238 1.29 4.28 9% 15%
Robert Winborne 4.97 0.280 1.31 5.22 4% 26%
Jonathan Hughes 3.15 0.206 1.40 5.99 15% 20%
Micah Carpenter 4.50 0.326 2.00 6.74 12% 15%
Ben Parr 3.12 0.278 1.95 7.24 14% 14%
Jake Lee 12.00 0.372 2.44 7.34 12% 13%
Keyton Gibson 12.96 0.303 1.73 8.52 10% 15%

The Takeaways

First looking at the entrenched starters, Curry has seen his ERA slip significantly over the past couple weeks, but the advanced stats still like his profile for the most part. A FIP of 3.76 suggests his ERA could come down slightly over the next couple starts, and he leads the team in K% with a sporty 32%. Curry has adjusted well to the college game and should continue as the team’s #1 starter. Hughes, on the other hand, has maintained a solid ERA while his FIP has deteriorated to a ghastly 5.99. Hughes was striking batters out left and right early in the season, but that has cooled, and he hasn’t seen his walk rate decrease. In fact, Hughes has the highest walk rate of all pitchers who qualified for this list. He’s survived by only allowing 14 hits in 20 innings pitched. Hughes still likely has the highest ceiling of anyone in this rotation, but he’ll need to clean up the BBs and HBPs if he wants to avoid some rocky outings against ACC competition. Right now he’s playing with fire.

The top candidates for starting jobs based on the numbers seem to be Ben Schniederjans, Jay Shadday, Jared Datoc, and Zac Ryan. FIP prefers Schniederjans(how many times will I have to type this out?) and Shadday, who both sport similar K rates and low BB rates. Shadday, in particular has only walked 4% of the batters he’s faced. His WHIP is stellar as well.

Jared Datoc and Zac Ryan don’t quite have the sterling FIP numbers of Schniederjans and Shadday, but still have strong profiles. Both have strong WHIP numbers and good ERAs. Datoc hasn’t given up an XBH all year, an honor he shares only with Schniederjans.

The Dark Horse here is Robert Winborne. His ERA is bad, as is his FIP, but his WHIP is respectable and he’s tied with Shadday for the lowest walk rate among qualifiers. Pair that with a 26% K rate, and that’s promising. He’s getting killed by homers right now, but that could be fluky with a smallish sample size, especially considering he has given up no other XBHs. Keep and eye on this one.

Thoughts? Who would you like to see take over the remaining starter spots?