Georgia Tech @ Duke: Advanced Box Score

Our frustration with this loss has already been covered pretty extensively at FTRS so I hope to focus on stuff that hasn't already been said.

Win Probability

Top 5 Plays

• Tech's 4th quarter almost comeback had all the makings of a real comeback. In the span of 4 plays Tech went from a 5% chance of winning to a nearly 25% of winning. That may seem low considering we only needed a touchdown to tie and an extra point to take the lead but getting those points to actually take the lead is tough.
• Duke's 1st quarter basically put the game away. After Duke's fumble and Tech's field goal the Blue Devils had a 47% chance of winning the game. By the time of Duke's punt return to the one and subsequent touchdown they were up to 94%. Tech did a hell of a job coming back at all considering we basically spotted them a 3 touchdown lead.
• 3 of the top 6 plays in terms of changes in Win Probability were Tech's defense forcing turnovers. They really did all they could to keep Tech in the game but our Offense could just do nothing with the ball.

Advanced Box Score

Wow, so many things wrong with this.

• On Passing Downs (think 2nd and long and 3rd and mid-to-long) Tech averaged 1.52 yards per play. Let's rephrase that, on plays where GT needed to gain the most yards they gained an average of 1.52 yards per play. That's awful.
• I can't remember Georgia Tech having a worse rushing performance. We could have run the ball for exactly our average on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd down and still not had enough yards for a first down. Also a 34% success rate on runs, the plays that are supposed to be consistent and move the chains, is atrocious.
• Tech gaining only 30% of yards available is also just brutally bad. This was truly an awful performance by our Offense.
• Our defense on the other hand played great after the 1st quarter. And we really shouldn't blame them for the 3rd touchdown at the end of the quarter. We really did dominate their offense in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarter.
• Their passing game did have some success, and this doesn't include all the QB draws and scrambles they had.
• Duke's 1st downs really were the whole game. If they had success on first then they were probably going to get a first down, if they didn't already. But if we stopped them early and they got into 2nd and 3rd down our defense did what it was supposed to do, check out the success rates we allowed on passing downs. Can't ask for much better.

Drive Chart

Man, this game was uuugggglllyyy. I still can't get over the turnaround by our defense. After allowing the three touchdowns Duke's offense went Punt, Punt, Punt, Punt, Interception, Punt, Punt, Interception, Punt, and then finally allowed a Touchdown on a 4th down attempt.

What do you guys think? Anything I missed? Any stat breakdowns from the game you would like to see week in and week out? Just drop me a line in the comments.

Author's Edit: Bill C added his thoughts here: http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2015/9/29/9410877/duke-georgia-tech-football-score-stats-recap

Man, Duke just put on a Little Things clinic. In terms of both equivalent points and yards, Georgia Tech out-gained the Blue Devils; plus, the Yellow Jackets won the turnover battle. But Duke converted chances better, returned a kickoff for a touchdown, and controlled the field in the field position game. Tech had to face longer fields and, for the last 50 minutes, a deficit. It kept seeming like GT might claw back, but they were running uphill all day. And because of that, Duke is going to play a serious role in the ACC division title race once again.