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Georgia Tech @ Duke: Advanced Box Score

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Taking an in-depth look at the stats behind last week's loss

Our frustration with this loss has already been covered pretty extensively at FTRS so I hope to focus on stuff that hasn't already been said.

Win Probability

gtdukewp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team WP Prior to Play

Home Team Win Probability Added

116

Georgia Tech

5

-

-

3

Duke Kickoff Return

0.793

0.134

5

Duke

2

2

51

1

Shaun Wilson Rush for 2, FUMBLE

0.619

-0.131

158

Duke

3

5

70

4

Thomas Sirk Pass to NA NA for 0, INTERCEPTION

0.867

-0.113

153

Georgia Tech

3

10

12

4

Justin Thomas Rush for 12, TOUCHDOWN

0.951

-0.104

169

Georgia Tech

3

5

57

4

Justin Thomas Rush for -4, FUMBLE

0.829

0.094

  • Tech's 4th quarter almost comeback had all the makings of a real comeback. In the span of 4 plays Tech went from a 5% chance of winning to a nearly 25% of winning. That may seem low considering we only needed a touchdown to tie and an extra point to take the lead but getting those points to actually take the lead is tough.
  • Duke's 1st quarter basically put the game away. After Duke's fumble and Tech's field goal the Blue Devils had a 47% chance of winning the game. By the time of Duke's punt return to the one and subsequent touchdown they were up to 94%. Tech did a hell of a job coming back at all considering we basically spotted them a 3 touchdown lead.
  • 3 of the top 6 plays in terms of changes in Win Probability were Tech's defense forcing turnovers. They really did all they could to keep Tech in the game but our Offense could just do nothing with the ball.

Advanced Box Score

Passing Downs Quarter Performance
GT Duke GT Duke
Plays 33 12 Yards / Play Success Rate Yards / Play Success Rate
Yards / Play 1.52 3.58 Q1 1.17 17% 7.38 71%
Success Rate 15% 25% Q2 6.35 46% 3.77 38%
Standard Downs Q3 1.79 21% 2.64 27%
GT Duke Q4 4.12 32% 2.88 6%
Plays 49 49 Down Performance
Yards / Play 5.43 4.82 GT Duke
Success Rate 43% 43% Yards / Play Success Rate Yards / Play Success Rate
Passing Plays 1 5.19 35% 5.52 48%
GT Duke 2 4.63 33% 3.19 29%
Plays 24 26 3 1.42 26% 3.44 38%
Yards / Play 5.21 4.27 4 0.6 20% 30 100%
Success Rate 25% 42% Drive Performance
Sack Rate (SD / PD) 0% / 6% 0% / 8% Num Drives Avg Start Spot % Methodical % Explosive
Running Plays GT 15 68 13% 0%
GT Duke Duke 14 60 7% 7%
Plays 58 35 % of Possible Yards Gained GT: 30% Duke: 32%
Yards / Play 3.29 4.8 Georgia Tech Hidden Yards -112
Success Rate 34% 37% Turnovers GT: 2 Miss St: 1

Wow, so many things wrong with this.

  • On Passing Downs (think 2nd and long and 3rd and mid-to-long) Tech averaged 1.52 yards per play. Let's rephrase that, on plays where GT needed to gain the most yards they gained an average of 1.52 yards per play. That's awful.
  • I can't remember Georgia Tech having a worse rushing performance. We could have run the ball for exactly our average on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd down and still not had enough yards for a first down. Also a 34% success rate on runs, the plays that are supposed to be consistent and move the chains, is atrocious.
  • Tech gaining only 30% of yards available is also just brutally bad. This was truly an awful performance by our Offense.
  • Our defense on the other hand played great after the 1st quarter. And we really shouldn't blame them for the 3rd touchdown at the end of the quarter. We really did dominate their offense in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarter.
  • Their passing game did have some success, and this doesn't include all the QB draws and scrambles they had.
  • Duke's 1st downs really were the whole game. If they had success on first then they were probably going to get a first down, if they didn't already. But if we stopped them early and they got into 2nd and 3rd down our defense did what it was supposed to do, check out the success rates we allowed on passing downs. Can't ask for much better.

Drive Chart

dukedc

Man, this game was uuugggglllyyy. I still can't get over the turnaround by our defense. After allowing the three touchdowns Duke's offense went Punt, Punt, Punt, Punt, Interception, Punt, Punt, Interception, Punt, and then finally allowed a Touchdown on a 4th down attempt.

What do you guys think? Anything I missed? Any stat breakdowns from the game you would like to see week in and week out? Just drop me a line in the comments.

Author's Edit: Bill C added his thoughts here: http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2015/9/29/9410877/duke-georgia-tech-football-score-stats-recap

Man, Duke just put on a Little Things clinic. In terms of both equivalent points and yards, Georgia Tech out-gained the Blue Devils; plus, the Yellow Jackets won the turnover battle. But Duke converted chances better, returned a kickoff for a touchdown, and controlled the field in the field position game. Tech had to face longer fields and, for the last 50 minutes, a deficit. It kept seeming like GT might claw back, but they were running uphill all day. And because of that, Duke is going to play a serious role in the ACC division title race once again.