Georgia Tech Recruiting Analysis Part II: Trends in Georgia Tech Recruiting

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In the first part of this analysis, which can be found here, we discussed the State of Georgia and how it fits into the national recruiting picture. Specifically, we focused on the Atlanta area. In this section, we're going to focus on Georgia Tech recruiting specifically. We'll look at where our recruits have come from the past 5 years, and how well we've been recruiting the top talent in our state.

Where do Georgia Tech Recruits Come from?

First, let's break it down by state, simply looking at the total number of recruits we got from each state each year. The total number of recruits in that class are at the bottom of the table.

Number of Signees per State per Year

State 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Average
Georgia 11 8 8 10 17 10.8
Florida 4 4 2 5 5 4
Alabama 2 3 0 3 0 1.6
North Carolina 3 0 0 0 2 1
Tennessee 1 0 0 0 2 0.6
Maryland 0 1 2 0 0 0.6
New Jersey 1 0 1 0 0 0.4
South Carolina 0 0 0 2 0 0.4
Illinois 1 0 0 0 0 0.2
Australia 0 1 0 0 0 0.2
Ohio 0 0 1 0 0 0.2
Hawaii 0 0 0 1 0 0.2
Pennsylvania 0 0 0 1 0 0.2
Louisiana 0 0 0 0 1 0.2
Total 23 17 14 22 27 20.6

Unsurprisingly, the top state was Georgia, with Florida in second. Florida is also the only state other than Georgia to supply us with at least 1 recruit each of the last 5 years. After Florida there is a steep drop off to Alabama and North Carolina, with no other states providing much in recent years. What is notable is the recent uptick we've had within our own state. Considering the fact that coaches pursued an out of state recruiting effort called "The Migration" as recently as 2014, this was unexpected, but it could be a good thing.

The raw numbers don't scale the data to account for class size, so the next table displays the percentage of each class that came from each state.

Percentage of Class from Each State per Year

State 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Average
Georgia 47.8 47.1 57.1 45.5 63.0 52.1
Florida 17.4 23.5 14.3 22.7 18.5 19.3
Alabama 8.7 17.6 0.0 13.6 0.0 8.0
North Carolina 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4 4.1
Maryland 0.0 5.9 14.3 0.0 0.0 4.0
Tennessee 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4 2.4
New Jersey 4.3 0.0 7.1 0.0 0.0 2.3
South Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1 0.0 1.8
Ohio 0.0 0.0 7.1 0.0 0.0 1.4
Australia 0.0 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
Hawaii 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.0 0.9
Pennsylvania 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.0 0.9
Illinois 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
Louisiana 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.7

The percentage data supports the idea that there has been an in-state recruiting spike in 2015. The 2015 numbers for Georgia were more than one standard deviation above our average, which is a promising trend. Given Georgia's aptitude at producing talent, sustaining our in-state numbers could seriously benefit our recruiting efforts going forward.

But what about Atlanta? Is the same spike occurring within the city? Let's take a look at the numbers:

Atlanta Area Recruiting Statistics

Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Average
Number in Class 3 3 3 3 6 3.6
Percentage of Class 13.0 17.6 21.4 13.6 22.2 17.6

The data shows a bump in Atlanta area recruits that is similar to the one seen for in-state recruits. The percentage of the class that from Atlanta was significantly above its five year average. I stuck with the definition of the Atlanta area that was used in Part I for the above statistics, but it is worth noting that 4 more 2015 recruits barely missed being counted as "Atlanta area recruits." Mikell Lands-Davis and Omahri Jarrett both hail from Douglasville, GA, and the Morgan twins live in Woodstock. Both of these towns lie barely outside the Cobb county borders, so they weren't considered to be in the area despite their proximity to the city. If these 4 were included, it would show a ridiculous spike in local recruiting that would be even more statistically significant. It's also interesting that the number of recruits Georgia Tech pulled from its home city was so consistent for so many years despite fluctuating class sizes.

Georgia Tech and the Georgia Top 50

Now that we've looked at the quantity of in-state recruits, let's look at the quality. In Part I, it was established that Georgia was the 4th best state for recruiting national Top250 talent over the past 5 recruiting cycles. During that time span, Georgia Tech has only gotten in-state recruit from that list, Jabari Hunt-Days, who was #187 in the nation in 2011. In 2012, we did sign Justin Thomas, who was #233, but he was from Alabama.

I compiled a list of all the Georgia Top 50 recruits we've gotten over the same period and noted their position on the list to the left of their name.

Georgia Tech Signees from the Georgia Top 50

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
#15: Jabari Hunt-Days #21: Francis Kallon #25: Shamire Devine #36: Andrew Marshall #39: Anree Saint-Amour
#31: Chris Milton #39: Patrick Gamble #46: CJ Leggett #40: AJ Gray
#41: DJ White #43: Will Bryan
#50: Tyler Cooksey

While the number of players we have recruited from this list has grown, our top recruit's position on this list has fallen. Therefore, it's safe to say that Georgia Tech's recruiting of the in-state top 50 has held mostly constant. I will say, however, that I think the guys from our 2015 class are grossly underrated, but only time will tell if I am right in that regard. It's also worth noting that outside of Kallon, all of these players who have had the opportunity to see the field have contributed significantly, with most of them projected as starters for the coming season. This lends some credence to these rankings, and also shows that the coaching staff has done a great job of making sure their top recruits don't become busts.

What Does All This Mean?

This is the point where the trends go beyond the numbers. In order to fully understand where Georgia Tech recruiting is heading, you have to look at some of the qualitative aspects of these classes. As many of you know, the Athletic Association has added several new recruiting staffers, including former QB Joe Hamilton. The effect of these hires doesn't establish itself instantly, as recruiting is all about fostering relationships with local coaches and players over many years. In the same regard, the stability of our coaching staff will pay off in the coming years. Of course, winning helps too. These additions started to pay off in 2015, when we were able to keep a better hold on our commits heading up to signing day. The result was arguably CPJ's best signing class.

The coaching staff has continually done an excellent job of identifying talent early, and has seemingly done a better job of developing relationships with coaches, parents and recruits. Two coaches have stood out in this regard, and their subsequent recruiting successes have been apparent in recent years. Coach Ted Roof and Coach Andy McCollum are responsible for recruiting the Gwinnett and Cobb counties, respectively, and have been important catalysts for our recent successes in those areas. In 2015, Georgia Tech was able to sign players from Buford and Wheeler High schools, where we had little success in previous years. In addition, we signed a player from North Gwinnett High School for the second year in a row, which could possibly l, not including an additional 4 signees who came from cities just outside Cobb county.

This success has only been apparent for one year, but the start of the 2016 recruiting cycle has already brought promise that this trend could be here to stay. In receiving a verbal commit from Buford RB Xavier Gantt(#41 on the 2016 Georgia Top50), Tech has signed its second Buford recruit in as many years, with a possibility for more to come.

I hope you enjoyed this 2 part analysis of Georgia Tech recruiting. Feel free to comment with any feedback or suggestions!

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