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Miami Advanced Stat Preview

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Taking an in-depth look at this week's matchup

Phil Sears-USA TODAY Sports

Computer Models

Model GT NCAA Rank UM NCAA Rank
S&P+ 70 60
FEI 58 78
FPI 30 60

There is quite some disagreement among the models about not only which team is better but where they belong on the national scale.

Model GT Points UM Points GT Win Prob
S&P+ 26.5 32.5 36%
FEI 29 24 64%
FPI -4.2 - 63%
Vegas -2 - 57%
MELLS 26 37 26%

So GT is favored by every model but MELLS and S&P+, but none are incredibly confident in us winning the game. Both teams are struggling but Miami is at home.

When Miami Has The Ball

What Miami does well is pass the ball. MELLS has their passing game as a top 20 in the country and S&P+ has them at 17th overall. If you look at their schedule they have had big games through the air against everyone but Clemson and UNC. Here is their Passing Expected Points Added percentile by opponent in green, verses their opponents average expected points added percentile in other games. In this graph the higher percentile is better for the offense.

As you can see they have only had a below average performance against two teams. Georgia Tech's pass defense is just average (which on this defense means it is our strength) ranking 56th in the country according to S&P+. Additionally Miami is 21st in the country in Adjusted Sack Rate (adjusts raw sack rate for opponent) while Georgia Tech's is 113th in the same category. I'm looking for a silver lining but I don't see one in their performances so far. Your best hope is that Miami just continues to fall apart on their interim coach, but that's hoping for something that the stats don't show.

When Georgia Tech Has The Ball

There isn't much change from what I've been saying this whole year. Georgia Tech's passing game is terribly inconsistent (112th in success rate) but still hits some big plays (21st in explosive plays) while our running game has been consistent but not explosive and no where near the elite attacks we had the past couple of years. For the first time in a long time we have performed below our opponent's average in a few games this year:

Luckily Miami's rushing defense is terrible. Last season they had a decent rushing attack but have allowed nearly every opponent this year to perform above average on the ground. Their run defense ranks even worse than ours according to S&P+ and MELLS. That's amazing. Their passing defense is much better and does an incredible job at limiting big plays.

Both teams do some things well and some things pretty freaking bad. At this point in the season I'm done trying to predict which Georgia Tech team shows up and I've got no clue how Miami is going to play after getting whooped by UNC last week. I just want to watch some good football, and I hope I don't have to watch another game than this to see it.