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Virginia Tech Advanced Stats Preview

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Taking an in-depth look at tonight's matchup

This may be a little light compared to other weeks, work is getting hectic.

Computer Predictions

Model GT Points VT Points GT Win Probability
Vegas -3 - 60.7%
S&P+ 27.7 26.5 52.8%
FEI 27 24 59.6%
FPI -5.5 - 65.4%
MELLS 31 24.4 64.2%

These teams are basically even, I imagine if this game was at VT they would be favored in every model.

When Georgia Tech Has The Ball

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  • I still have Virginia Tech's passing defense as the strength of their defense, however this is opposite of Bill C. S&P+ has their rushing defense as better than passing, ranking 31st overall compared to 75th. Neither unit is great but can definitely still make plays. In true Virginia Tech fashion they seem to be great at limiting an offense's success but allowing big plays at times. They rank 31st in passing success rate allowed but 100th in explosiveness and it's even worse on running plays: They rank 7th in rushing success rate allowed but 127th in allowing big plays through the running game. Hitting the big plays has always been a recipe for success against Bud Foster's defense but usually they don't make it easy.
  • At this point you guys know our offense. Our rushing offense is decent, not great, and will certainly move the ball at times. We are going to struggle at converting the short-to-go 3rd and 4th downs but if we can stay ahead of the downs, or hit big plays and score some long touchdowns, we should be fine. In the passing game if JT can hit Ricky Juene (never a sure thing against VT's secondary) for some big plays it will help, but don't expect us passing the ball to be the answer.

When Virginia Tech Has The Ball

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  • Bleh, this matchup is just gross. Georgia Tech's rushing defense has chosen the strategy of allowing opponents to move the ball at will AND hit big plays and with Gostis now out expect it to get worse. Our only saving grace may be that VT has it's own struggles running the ball. On standard downs (1st downs, and 2nd and shorts) they get almost no push with their line, ranking 100th in Adjusted Line Yards, a measure by Bill C that measures how many consistent yards a team is able to get. If Georgia Tech can shoot some gaps and get some TFLs we may be able to make enough plays behind the lines to take away their running game.
Well that's it this week. There really isn't much to this matchup. Both team's still have their "personality" as usual, they just aren't as effective employing it this year. If Georgia Tech lets Virginia Tech's offense control the ball and move the chains consistently then we have failed. Even with how bad our defense has played VT's offense has not shown they can consistently move the ball across possessions. If our offense can consistently move the ball enough to win the Field Position battle I just don't see VT being able to outscore us. Of course, this season has been full of surprise performances by Georgia Tech, so who the heck knows.