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ACC Check In: Week 6

Taking stock of the rest of the league

Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Conference Win Totals


  • Duke is now your ACC Coastal division favorites, although Miami and UNC are right there. I'm hoping that both the model gets more confident as the season progresses as well as the teams start to separate themselves a little more. Right now the model can't really separate the teams too much. Georgia Tech basically has between a 25% and 75% chance of winning every game for the rest of the season, which honestly I don't think is too out of line. The ACC is just one big clump of teams.

Team Ranks

The following table shows how many points better each team is than an average FBS team. The defense numbers represent how many points above or below average an offense would score against that defense, so negative numbers are better.

Team NCAA Rank Overall Offense Defense
Florida State 12 11.9 2.9 -9.0
Miami 14 11.6 8.0 -3.7
North Carolina State 21 10.7 7.3 -3.3
Clemson 24 9.7 1.7 -7.9
Boston College 36 7.6 -2.0 -9.6
Duke 38 6.6 -1.4 -8.0
Syracuse 44 4.9 0.8 -4.1
North Carolina 47 4.4 1.0 -3.4
Louisville 50 3.4 -2.8 -6.2
Pittsburgh 53 3.2 0.9 -2.3
Georgia Tech 54 3.2 4.8 1.6
Virginia Tech 68 0.1 -1.0 -1.1
Wake Forest 106 -6.0 -8.0 -2.0
Virginia 117 -10.0 -3.3 6.7

  • I'm surprised to see Georgia Tech's Defense rated as below average. I've been impressed with their performance so far, but maybe my expectations are just pretty low.
  • I'm also surprised at how high Miami is rated. They have performed decently well just in their raw expected points added per play but the competition they have faced so far hasn't been great. I need to do a deeper dive in their numbers when I have some time.
  • The ACC has some great defenses this year, but only two great offenses, and I think both of those teams are due for some regression. Our offense is still rated pretty highly but I don't think anyone thinks we have been great so far.

Week 6 Predictions


  • The two big games are obviously Miami at FSU and GT at Clemson. My model likes the home team in both matchups, although thats from both a home field advantage and because it thinks Clemson and FSU are both the better team.
  • Pitt needs this win to keep up with UNC and Duke in the coastal. They can't afford to lose games they shouldn't for the rest of the season. All the sudden the Coastal is wide open and silly losses are going to doom most teams.