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ACC Check In: Week 9

Taking stock of the conference after this week

By Matt Mills
Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Win Total Projections

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  • Clemson is now the favorite in the Atlantic after FSU's loss and their demolishing of Miami. Clemson has a 14% chance of winning their remaining 4 conference games.
  • Duke and Pitt are battling it out for first place in the Coastal. UNC still has a decent shot of winning the coastal as well, but are less likely than Duke or Pitt to win at least 7 conference games.
  • Georgia Tech has an 11% chance of winning the rest of their conference games, though I expect that number to rise as Miami continues to unravel this year.

Conference Ranks

Team NCAA Rank Overall Offense Defense*
Florida State 6 16.0 5.8 -10.2
Clemson 15 13.8 4.2 -9.6
NC State 22 11.5 7.3 -4.1
Duke 33 10.0 1.6 -8.5
Miami 37 7.7 6.6 -1.1
UNC 38 7.5 2.7 -4.8
BC 41 6.6 -6.5 -13.2
Pitt 45 5.8 1.9 -3.9
Louisville 60 1.9 -4.9 -6.8
Syracuse 68 0.6 0.1 -0.5
Georgia Tech 69 0.6 1.9 1.3
Virginia Tech 81 -2.4 -1.8 0.6
Wake Forest 114 -9.3 -10.0 -0.7
Virginia 117 -13.1 -7.2 5.9

(*) Negative numbers are better. The defensive numbers are from the perspective of how many points the opposing team is expected to score.

  • FSU and Clemson are still the class of the league, although NC State is still hanging on in the top 25, although avoiding Clemson and FSU to this point may have something to do with that.
  • I'm surprised to see FSU's offense rated so high. I think this may be something where my model overvalues big plays over efficiency and FSU has been the king of big plays, until this past week that is.
  • Georgia Tech needs to take care of business in the next two weeks against UVA and VT, we will be favored against both and need to make sure we take advantage of the "easy wins" we have left.

Week 9 Predictions

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  • Clemson and NC State should be the biggest ACC game this week. While my model favors NC State because they are at home most will favor Clemson. This will be the biggest test for NC State's offense and Clemson may be looking ahead to FSU next weekend.
  • Big matchup in the coastal with UNC and Pitt. My model gives Pitt the slight edge.

Georgia Tech Win Totals

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gtsched

  • 24.7% chance of making a bowl game, LETS DO THIS!