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Taking an in-depth look at Saturday's come from behind win

### Win Probability

#### Top 5 Plays

 Play Number Offense Down Distance Spot Quarter Play Description GT Win Probability Before Play GT Win Probability Added 1 158 Florida State 4 6 38 4 FIELD_GOAL 0.495 0.505 2 42 Georgia Tech 3 5 56 2 Justin Thomas Pass to NA NA for 0, INTERCEPTION 0.568 -0.222 3 141 Georgia Tech 4 6 59 4 Justin Thomas Pass to Brad Stewart for 36, FIRST DOWN 0.366 0.183 4 67 Georgia Tech 2 6 60 2 Justin Thomas Rush for 60, TOUCHDOWN 0.233 0.177 5 127 Florida State 3 10 10 4 Everett Golson Pass to NA NA for 0, INTERCEPTION 0.239 0.173

• Well that was a wild one. My model predicted that the game was basically a toss-up when Aguayo lined up for his field goal. I think this gives GT a much better shot than we actually had, but I think we can get a better estimate with some loose math. There are basically three outcomes on this play, Aguayo missis the kick and Tech goes to overtime, he makes it and we lose, or the actual block six that occurred. Aguayo is a phenomenal kicker but I'm not comfortable putting the odds of him making a 56 yards field goal better than 50/50. If he misses and we go to OT let's say our chances of winning are conservatively 50% but realistically maybe closer to 30-40%, I wouldn't trust us winning a kicking battle with Butker's struggles this year. And then the odds of what actually happened are, I dunno, 1 in 10,000 (about 800 games a year, maybe an average of 4 field goals a game, a block and return happens maybe once every three years? That would be 1 in 9600). So we get: GT odds of winning = (49.995% * 0%) + (49.995% * 35%) + (0.01% * 100%) = 17% chance of winning. Give or take some percentages.
• ALL THAT IS TO SAY HOLY CRAP THAT WAS AN AMAZING PLAY.
• What is going to get under-appreciated is the 4th down conversion. Without that call to go for it and the completion we don't have a chance to block a kick to win, FSU just kneels it out. As you'll see below Justin Thomas really struggled through the air up until that point so to have the balls to call a pass at that moment (even if JT definitely had the option to run too) is freaking awesome.
• The other huge plays for Tech were JT's incredible 60 yard touchdown run and our interception in the endzone. It was a very poor ball from Everett Golson, if he leads his receiver at all that's a touchdown, but it was a hell of play from Lawrence Austin.