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FSU Advanced Box Score

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Taking an in-depth look at Saturday's come from behind win

Win Probability

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Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

GT Win Probability Before Play

GT Win Probability Added

1

158

Florida State

4

6

38

4

FIELD_GOAL

0.495

0.505

2

42

Georgia Tech

3

5

56

2

Justin Thomas Pass to NA NA for 0, INTERCEPTION

0.568

-0.222

3

141

Georgia Tech

4

6

59

4

Justin Thomas Pass to Brad Stewart for 36, FIRST DOWN

0.366

0.183

4

67

Georgia Tech

2

6

60

2

Justin Thomas Rush for 60, TOUCHDOWN

0.233

0.177

5

127

Florida State

3

10

10

4

Everett Golson Pass to NA NA for 0, INTERCEPTION

0.239

0.173

  • Well that was a wild one. My model predicted that the game was basically a toss-up when Aguayo lined up for his field goal. I think this gives GT a much better shot than we actually had, but I think we can get a better estimate with some loose math. There are basically three outcomes on this play, Aguayo missis the kick and Tech goes to overtime, he makes it and we lose, or the actual block six that occurred. Aguayo is a phenomenal kicker but I'm not comfortable putting the odds of him making a 56 yards field goal better than 50/50. If he misses and we go to OT let's say our chances of winning are conservatively 50% but realistically maybe closer to 30-40%, I wouldn't trust us winning a kicking battle with Butker's struggles this year. And then the odds of what actually happened are, I dunno, 1 in 10,000 (about 800 games a year, maybe an average of 4 field goals a game, a block and return happens maybe once every three years? That would be 1 in 9600). So we get: GT odds of winning = (49.995% * 0%) + (49.995% * 35%) + (0.01% * 100%) = 17% chance of winning. Give or take some percentages.
  • ALL THAT IS TO SAY HOLY CRAP THAT WAS AN AMAZING PLAY.
  • What is going to get under-appreciated is the 4th down conversion. Without that call to go for it and the completion we don't have a chance to block a kick to win, FSU just kneels it out. As you'll see below Justin Thomas really struggled through the air up until that point so to have the balls to call a pass at that moment (even if JT definitely had the option to run too) is freaking awesome.
  • The other huge plays for Tech were JT's incredible 60 yard touchdown run and our interception in the endzone. It was a very poor ball from Everett Golson, if he leads his receiver at all that's a touchdown, but it was a hell of play from Lawrence Austin.

Advanced Box Score

Passing Downs

Quarter Performance

GT FSU GT FSU
Plays 20 19 Yards / Play Success Rate Yards / Play Success Rate
Yards / Play 4.5 7 Q1 4.07 43% 2.54 23%
Success Rate 15% 42% Q2 9 36% 6.95 47%
Standard Downs Q3 5 37% 3.2 20%
GT FSU Q4 4.17 17% 5.21 42%
Plays 39 37 Down Performance
Yards / Play 6 3.97 GT FSU
Success Rate 44% 35% Yards / Play Success Rate Yards / Play Success Rate
Passing Plays 1 3.26 30% 4.29 32%
GT FSU 2 8.86 33% 7.33 56%
Plays 11 34 3 2.21 36% 2.8 20%
Yards / Play 5.18 5.68 4 36 100% - -
Success Rate 18% 38% Drive Performance
Sack Rate (SD / PD) 0% / 5% 5% / 5% Num Drives Avg Start Spot % Methodical % Explosive
Running Plays GT 9 79 22% 11%
GT FSU FSU 10 63 20% 0%
Plays 48 22 % of Possible Yards Gained GT: 48% FSU: 42%
Yards / Play 5.65 3.95 Georgia Tech Hidden Yards -144.54
Success Rate 38% 36% Turnovers GT: 2 FSU: 1

  • Where did this defensive performance come from? FSU's average drive started at their own 37 and yet we only allowed 16 points. FSU was the number one rushing attack in the country coming in to the game according to S&P+ and we only allowed 3.95 yards per carry on a 36% success rate. That is incredible. In addition we only allowed 5.68 yards per pass and while we only had a couple of sacks we were constantly harassing Golson and forcing bad throws.
  • Our offense struggled a decent amount though. Take away JT's huge run and our rushing yard per play drops from 5.65 ypc to 4.5. Our passing game was atrocious. Sure the 4th down conversion was huge but other than that we were 3 for 9 with a sack for a grand total of 21 yards. That is awful.
  • I'm really surprised at FSU's run-pass balance. 34 passing plays vs 22 running plays when your only consistent playmaker on offense is your running back just doesn't make sense.
  • Our offense continued it's struggles on moving the ball on 3rd down.

Drive Chart

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  • Our defense played phenomenal at the start of this game. Forcing 2 punts and holding FSU out of the endzone when they started with the ball in the redzone is huge. We allowed 2 long drives after that but at least held Florida State to field goals. I'm not sure if this was something our defense was doing better in the red zone with a shortened field or FSU struggling to get their offense rolling but I'm pumped about it regardless.