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ACC Check In: Week 7

Taking a stats-based look at the ACC

Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports

Conference Win Totals


  • Duke, Pitt, and UNC are all still in the lead for the coastal but there ain't much separating them. Heck even Miami has a decent shot of still winning. My model doesn't consider much separation between these teams at all.
  • The winner of the Atlantic is absolutely down to Clemson and FSU. My model isn't too bullish on Clemson, they are actually projected to be underdogs at Miami right now. However a lot is still up in the air according to MELLS, most teams are still no more than an 80% favorite which I think is too conservative.

Team Ranks

The following table shows how many points better each team is than an average FBS team. The defense numbers represent how many points above or below average an offense would score against that defense, so negative numbers are better.

Team NCAA Rank Overall Offense Defense
Florida State 6 14.1 5.0 -9.2
Clemson 19 11.6 2.7 -8.9
Miami (Florida) 25 9.6 7.7 -1.9
Duke 29 9.0 -1.0 -10.0
North Carolina State 33 8.4 5.6 -2.8
Boston College 40 6.7 -4.7 -11.4
North Carolina 47 4.3 0.8 -3.6
Pittsburgh 48 4.2 0.3 -3.8
Louisville 52 3.6 -2.9 -6.5
Georgia Tech 61 1.8 4.2 2.4
Syracuse 63 1.2 0.3 -0.8
Virginia Tech 64 1.1 -1.5 -2.5
Wake Forest 98 -4.7 -9.3 -4.6
Virginia 115 -9.4 -4.2 5.3

  • FSU's offense played very well against Miami and improved their offense by about 2 total points per game.
  • Clemson also improved after beating up on Georgia Tech.
  • Somehow Georgia Tech's offense is still rated as above average, and that's with preseason only worth about 15% of the model right now.
  • Duke and Miami are rated about 5 points better than any other ACC Coastal team.
  • The best Defenses in the league are Boston College and Duke, raise your hand if you saw that coming in to the year.

Week 7 Predictions


  • Miami is favored to put Virginia Tech basically out of contention in the coastal, but we will see if they suffer any setback from a tough loss at FSU (though, they were pretty thoroughly outplayed but had some lucky breaks).
  • Clemson isn't nearly as large of a favorite as I think they should be hosting Boston College. Boston College's defense is great, yea, but that it's bad.
Any questions or suggestions for what you would like to see each week? Put them in the comments.