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Georgia Tech at Miami: The Advanced Preview

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0-7 Tech heads to South Beach in hopes of stealing their first conference win against the jump start Hurricanes, but the sun ain't shining on the Yellow Jackets today.

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Miami (14-5) Georgia Tech (9-10)
Overall Power Rating 20.7 17.8
Offensive Power Rating 19.8 16.2
Defensive Power Rating 21.7 19.4
RPI .5984 .5498
Offensive Efficiency 114.4 103.3
Defensive Efficiency 101.8 103.5
Efficiency Differential +12.7 -0.2
Effective FG% 51.8% 44.4%
Effective FG% Defense 46.6% 48.5%
Offensive Rebound % 27.7% 40.1%
Defensive Rebound % 69.2% 74.7%
Foul Line Rate 23.9% 21.5%
Opponent Foul Line Rate 14.8% 25.5%
Turnover Rate 13.8% 16.4%
Opponent Turnover Rate 15.1% 16.2%
Average Pace 73.1 72.6

Using these advanced stats, we get a clearer picture of just how this game will play out. The total power rating is a statistic designed by me that adds in the four factors (eFG%, OffReb%, TO%, FL%) for offense and the inverse (eFG%D, DefReb%, OppTO%, OppFL%) for defense; RPI- a true measure for strength of schedule and the rating differential. If any of the other categories seem confusing, I’ve attached a Basketball Stat Glossary here.

Welp, it's here folks. The thought has been looming for quite some time but now it is official: 2015 Georgia Tech basketball is a runaway dumpster fire. After losing another typical heartbreaker to Boston College on Sunday, its becoming a serious question if the Yellow Jackets will win any ACC games this year, period. With Miami, Duke and NC State ahead, Georgia Tech could be 0-10 before they get their first viable conference win against Wake Forest.

Miami looms tonight at nine o'clock eastern, a team that's started 5-2 in conference play with losses only to Virginia and Notre Dame. The No. 23 Hurricanes are looking to climb the ACC latter as one of the six ranked teams in the conference, and is Tech really going to be the team that makes them slip up? The metrics say no, my head says no and my heart is losing ways to care.

Miami Overview

Miami hurts you with their ball movement and strong guard play. 16.3 percent of Miami's buckets come from assists and Angel Rodriguez/Sheldon McClellan are responsible for most of them. Combined the two average 29.4 points per game on 43 percent shooting, which is 41.7 percent of Miami's point per game total. Normally I'd say if you can take either one out of the game you have a strong chance of beating Miami, but when you have Travis Jorgenson and Robert Sampson playing guards it's much easier said than done.

Miami are a disciplined team who don't foul and limit you attempts at the free throw line, then again since Tech shoots 67 percent from the line as a team that's probably a good thing. The Hurricane's struggles come in the front court, where they lack depth and consistency at all three positions. This is clearly evident in their rebounding percentages, where they are below average in defensive rebounding and just plain bad in offensive rebounding. This appears to be a good matchup for Tech, as they're top three scores all come in the front court.

Georgia Tech Overview

I couldn't possibly talk myself into thinking this could be a win for Georgia Tech, but the matchup nightmare is there! Miami doesn't get great defense from it's bigs, which is where Georgia Tech actually plays its best basketball. DeMarco Cox, Charles Mitchell and Marcus Georges-Hunt combine for 31.3 points per game, which makes up for 49.4 of Georgia Tech's total per game scoring. 28.2 of those 31.3 points come inside 15 feet, which is where the Yellow Jackets have the most potential to hurt Miami.

Then again, there's everything else Georgia Tech can't do that could keep them from achieving their first conference win. The lack of scoring from anywhere outside of 15 feet, turning the ball over, inability to get to the free throw line or bad coaching are all reasons why Tech won't win this game. The broken record is getting very old for fans, and at this point everyone is waiting around more anxiously for Brian Gregory's firing rather than the first conference win.

The Prediction

Line: (-9.5) Miami via sportsbook.ag

Final: Miami 60, Georgia Tech 54