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Each Week FTRS will take apart the traditional box score and present our readers with the key insights on how the game was played. You can view all the Advanced Box Score stories in the Football Analytics Story Stream. For any questions about the metrics listed below please first refer to the Advanced Stats Glossary for definitions.
There won't be much analysis this week, but reviewing the numbers shows we still have a lot to improve upon.
Advanced Box Score
| Georgia Tech 27 - Virginia Tech 24 | |||||||
| Passing Downs | Quarter Performance | ||||||
| GT | VT | GT | VT | ||||
| Plays | 22 | 21 | Yards / Play | Success Rate | Yards / Play | Success Rate | |
| Yards / Play | 7.59 | 6.62 | Q1 | 5.67 | 33% | 5.36 | 37% |
| Success Rate | 32% | 38% | Q2 | 7.12 | 53% | 7.00 | 64% |
| Standard Downs | Q3 | 6.08 | 38% | 4.25 | 44% | ||
| GT | VT | Q4 | 5.35 | 35% | 6.38 | 75% | |
| Plays | 40 | 52 | Down Performance | ||||
| Yards / Play | 5.2 | 5.48 | GT | VT | |||
| Success Rate | 45% | 62% | Yards / Play | Success Rate | Yards / Play | Success Rate | |
| Passing Plays | 1 | 4.61 | 36% | 6.74 | 60% | ||
| GT | VT | 2 | 9.1 | 50% | 2.92 | 46% | |
| Plays | 19 | 40 | 3 | 3.75 | 33% | 8.43 | 57% |
| Yards / Play | 6.37 | 7.22 | 4 | 9.5 | 50% | - | - |
| Success Rate | 32% | 58% | Drive Performance | ||||
| Sack Rate (SD / PD) | 0.0% / 4.5% | 0.0% / 4.8% | Num Drives | Avg Start Spot | % Methodical | % Explosive | |
| Running Plays | GT | 11 | 72.64 | 9% | 9% | ||
| GT | VT | VT | 12 | 68.42 | 25% | 8% | |
| Plays | 43 | 33 | % of Possible Yards Gained | GT: 42% | VT: 47% | ||
| Yards / Play | 5.91 | 4.1 | Georgia Tech Hidden Yards | -46.42 | |||
| Success Rate | 44% | 52% | Turnovers | GT: 1 | VT: 3 | ||
- Our defense has got to improve on its ability to consistently stop teams. A 57% success rate on third downs is just awful.
Win Probability Chart
Well that was fun, huh? Here are the 5 biggest plays of the game according to the win probability added in each play. I excluded the game winning field goal because my model usually don't consider the change in win probability from the last play, but it technically would have been the 2nd biggest play in terms of win probability added.
| Offense | Quarter | Down | Distance | Spot | WP | Play Description | WPA |
| VT | 4 | 2 | 21 | VT 36 | .856 | Paul Davis Interception, returned 41 yards for Touchdown | - .374 |
| GT | 4 | 2 | 10 | GT 31 | .195 | Justin Thomas 31 yard pass to DeAndre Smelter, Touchdown | + .282 |
| VT | 4 | 1 | 10 | VT 31 | .656 | LUCKIEST PLAY EVER | + .231 |
| VT | 4 | 1 | 10 | VT 25 | .618 | Michael Brewer Intercepted by D.J. White | - .222 |
| VT | 1 | 3 | 12 | VT 48 | .466 | Michael Brewer pass to Cam Phillips for 22 yards | + .121 |
Drive Chart
We only forced three punts in this game, but also ended three of their drives with a turnover.
Just a sloppy and wild game all around.
I'm going to have to skip on the analysis this week, so I'll leave that up to you readers. Any thoughts, observations, or insights gleaned from these charts? Put them in the comments.