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Duke Advanced Box Score

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Georgia Tech was done in by Penalties and Turnovers

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Each Week FTRS will take apart the traditional box score and present our readers with the key insights on how the game was played. You can view all the Advanced Box Score stories in the Football Analytics Story Stream. For any questions about the metrics listed below please first refer to the Advanced Stats Glossary for definitions.

Advanced Box Score

Duke 31 - Georgia Tech 25
Passing Downs Quarter Performance
GT Duke GT Duke
Plays 16 17 Yards / Play Success Rate Yards / Play Success Rate
Yards / Play 9.88 7.06 Q1 5.83 59% 5.56 38%
Success Rate 56% 35% Q2 6.12 47% 6.12 59%
Standard Downs Q3 6 38% 6 60%
GT Duke Q4 8.36 64% 3 50%
Plays 56 34 Down Performance
Yards / Play 5.8 4.52 GT Duke
Success Rate 52% 57% Yards / Play Success Rate Yards / Play Success Rate
Passing Plays 1 5.89 44% 5.37 54%
GT Duke 2 7.2 60% 5.29 54%
Plays 27 25 3 8.27 64% 4.46 46%
Yards / Play 7.15 4.92 4 0 0% 0 0%
Success Rate 44% 36% Drive Performance
Sack Rate (SD / PD) 1.8% / 0.0% 0.0% / 0.0% Num Drives Avg Start Spot % Methodical % Explosive
Running Plays GT 10 68.40 20% 0%
GT Duke Duke 9 65.50 33% 0%
Plays 45 48 % of Possible Yards Gained GT: 66% Duke: 64%
Yards / Play 6.4 5.2 Georgia Tech Hidden Yards -26.1
Success Rate 58% 60% Turnovers GT: 3 DUKE: 0

  • The biggest take away from this has to be the three turnovers. Heck its actually closer to four if you include the missed field goal. They were just all in a row too; I'll talk about the effect of the four failed drives in the Win Probability section and Drive Chart section.
  • Other than the turnovers our offense really was great. 8.3 yards per play and a 64% success rate on third downs, Nearly 6 yards per play in every quarter, a 56% success rate on passing downs, and only one sack all game. This was a solid performance except for those turnovers.
  • The biggest problem from our defense's perspective is we just couldn't get off the field. We actually improved our third down performance from earlier in the season, but still allowed a 46% success rate on third downs (nothing new). What changed is we didn't force a single turnover. We didn't get a sack and we gave Duke pretty good field position all game. Just not a recipe for continued success on defense.

Win Probability

dukegtwp

Top 5 Biggest Plays
Offense Quarter Down Distance Spot WP Play Description WPA
Duke 2 3 26 GT 33 .503 Anthony Boone pass to Max McCaffrey + .194
GT 3 1 10 Duke 47 .554 Zach Laskey Fumble - .171
Duke 1 2 22 Duke 24 .311 Pass Complete for 29 yards + Targeting + .165
Duke 2 2 5 GT 12 .647 Anthony Boone Illegal Pass - .144
GT 1 - - - .431 Jamal Golden Kickoff Return + .119

Our biggest defensive lapses of the day were the big plays when we had Duke pinned back. Allowing a 30 yard completion on 3rd and 26 and a 29 yard completion on 2nd and 22 is just frustrating. Our defense found creative ways to be bad this week.

At the time of Zach Laskey's fumble Georgia Tech had a 55% chance of winning. After the incredible offensive output of fumble, missed field goal, interception, and interception we had less than a 5% chance of winning. I mean, that is the definition of losing the game. Our defense didn't make it any better but, as you'll see in the drive chart, they did admirably considering the field position they were given. Again, the best way I can describe it is that Tech found a very frustrating way to lose.

Drive Chart

gtdukedc

Look at the change in field position from the 1st half to the 2nd half. In the first half Duke didn't start a drive closer than their own 25. We did allow two touchdowns but both needed big plays that, hopefully, aren't sustainable over the long run. Then in the 2nd half only ONE of Duke's possessions, out of five, started more than 75 yards away from the end zone. Eventually that will burn you, and on Saturday it did. It is tough to prevent teams from scoring when you are giving them such great field position, especially when your defense already struggles with things.

Georgia Tech didn't play bad in this game. Some unfortunate big plays and turnovers really did us in which is going to happen every once in a while. Its unfortunate we couldn't cash in a home win in the division, because that would be huge, but we have got to learn and move on.