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The Week that was for Georgia Tech's Opponents: Week 10

Checking in on our opponent's performances this week.

By Matt Mills
Kevin Liles-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly F/+ Ratings

F/+ ratings are a combination of play by play metrics developed by Bill C. of Football Study Hall and by drive metrics developed by Brian Fremeau of his own awesome site. A higher F/+ ranking is better and I've done my best to color code it and label it. Here is a graph of our opponent's weekly F/+ rating. And remember the weeks are the F/+ ratings GOING IN TO that week. The jump after week 7 preseason projections were removed and new info was added, so you can't compare the overall values from before then to after then, but the relative ranks are still good.

Screen_shot_2013-11-05_at_4

  • At 6-3 Georgia Tech has already played three Top-27, with two more remaining. That is one hell of a schedule. And we are RIGHT THERE in terms of breaking in to that upper echelon of quality teams, we just can't quite break through. What does this mean for the rest of our schedule?

Opponent Performance

Something else I am curious in is our opponent performance by game, and how that relates to common opponents. A great measure of game performance is Points Per Drive. This is simply the number of points you scored in a week divided by the total number of drives you had during the game. The great website fbsdrivestats takes this even further by removing drives that end in a Kneel Down (like the one right before halftime of the Duke game) and garbage time drives (essentially when a game is clearly out of hand). This gives us a great measure of your offensive and defensive performance in a given game. Here is a table showing our opponent's so far, and upcoming opponent's, Points per drive performance in their games between FBS opponents.

Points Per Drive Scored
GT Duke UNC VT Miami BYU Syracuse UVA Pitt
4.67 SU 5 Navy 3.40 MTSU 2.33 UNC 5.6 USF 3.33 Texas 6 Tulane 2.08 Ball St. 5 NM
3.88 Duke 2.92 Troy 2.8 BC 2.08 BC 3.8 GT 3.08 Boise 1.85 NCST 2 GT 3.47 Duke
3.11 UNC 2.69 Pitt 2.33 GT 1.9 Pitt 2.83 FAU 2.8 MTSU 1.06 Penn St 1.86 Maryland 2.22 Navy
2.92 UVA 2.43 Duke 1.87 NCST 1.55 GT 2.4 Wake 2.4 Houston 1 Wake 1.5 Duke 1.63 FSU
2.4 UM 2.33 Memphis 1.53 UM 1.50 Marshall 1.75 FSU 2.18 GT 0.78 Clemson 1 Oregon 0.91 VT
2.1 Pitt 1 VT 1.43 USC 1.27 ECU 1.62 UF 2.18 USU 0.78 NW 1 BYU 0.91 GT
1.18 BYU 0.88 GT 1.25 ECU 0.83 Bama 1.43 UNC 0.94 UVA 0 GT 0.78 Clemson 0.88 UVA
0.91 VT 1 VT 0.77 Duke 0.88 Utah 0.21 Pitt
Points Per Drive Allowed
GT Duke UNC VT Miami BYU Syracuse UVA Pitt
3.8 UM 3.88 GT 4.36 ECU 2.45 BC 4.38 FSU 1.75 Texas 4.76 GT 3.69 Ball St 4.86 FSU
2.33 UNC 3.47 Pitt 3.38 USC 1.56 Bama 2.4 GT 1.72 Houston 3.82 Clemson 3.5 UVA 2.69 Duke
2.18 BYU 2.21 Troy 3.11 GT 1.50 Marshall 2.1 Wake 1.33 Utah 3.73 NW 3.45 Oregon 2.4 Navy
2 UVA 1.5 UVA 2.33 VT 1 UNC 1.53 UNC 1.18 GT 2.5 Tulane 2.92 GT 2.1 GT
1.55 VT 1 Navy 1.43 UM 1 Duke 1.4 USF 1 UVA 1.44 PSU 2.45 Maryland 1.9 VT
0.91 Pitt 0.77 VT 1.36 NCST 0.91 ECU 1.21 UF 0.91 MTSU 0.71 NCST 2.43 Duke 0.86 NM
0.88 Duke 0.58 Memphis 0.64 BC 0.91 GT 0.55 FAU 0.64 USU 0 Wake 0.94 BYU 0.21 UVA
0 SU 0.00 MTSU 0.91 Pitt 0.6 Boise 0.88 Pitt

ACC Rankings

Finally I want to track how each ACC team is doing against other ACC teams. How can we do this? I will be taking the Points Per Drive margin from each game and putting it in context against all ACC opponents. So Georgia Tech scored 3.88 Points per Drive in non garbage time and excluding kneel downs against Duke, while allowing .88 points per drive. That gives us a net margin of 3.00 for the Duke game. That is pretty good. Here is how that performance will look against all other ACC games.

Screen_shot_2013-11-05_at_2

  • What would our season have been like if we had just won the close games we lost to VT and Miami. I'm worried that we are actually playing some pretty good football this year, but just won't have the wins to show anything for it because of our schedule.

What do you guys think? Any observations?

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