Last Week's Results
In case you guys were looking for a more quantifiable measure of how weird last week's game was, I've got a good one for you. 14 entrants played the Over/Unders last week, and of those, only 2 went over .500, and the group score combined was under .500. We were all caught pretty off-guard by how that game went down, although not nearly as off-guard as if that game had happened literally anywhere else. Heck, even pulindian and Dive Keep and Pitch were held to 3-3! In any case, here are the results. Shield your eyes from the carnage.
|PeterInVA||3||3||50%||Atlanta's original team||2||4||33%|
|Dive Keep and Pitch||3||3||50%||packerman||2||4||33%|
Yeah, let's just move on.
Over/Under 0.5 Vad Lee Passing Touchdowns
If I told you that Vad Lee's only thrown a single passing touchdown in our last 5 games, would you believe me? Maybe so, but after 7 passing touchdowns through the first 3 games of the season, I, for one, find it surprising still. Pittsburgh's passing defense ranks 44th nationally, which is better than ours but not really a shutdown-type of unit. I mentioned in the mailbag how I think that our passing game isn't far from being in sync, and to be honest I'll be a little surprised if we don't see much of it again this week.
Over 0.5 Vad Lee Passing Touchdowns
David Sims Rushing Yards (-15) vs Zach Laskey Rushing Yards
This is a new one, and here's how it works: basically, add 15 yards to what Zach Laskey ends the game with, and tell me whether that new total is higher than what David Sims finishes with. Sims is averaging about 64 yards per game, while Laskey averages about 49 yards per game (a difference of 15 yards per game). However, in the last two games, Laskey has out-rushed Sims in each game. Will that trend continue?
Laskey +15 Rushing Yards
Over/Under 21.5 Points Allowed by Georgia Tech's Defense
So far this season, Pitt has scored 21 points or fewer four times, and is 1-3 in those games (vs Florida State, vs Virginia, @ Virginia Tech, @ Navy). In its other three games they're 3-0, and have scored 58, 49, and 35, against Duke, New Mexico, and Old Dominion, respectively. Now, notice the trend there. Any time they've played a considerable opponent (by the way, apparently Navy is a considerable opponent for Pitt), their offense has struggled quite a bit. They're 73rd nationally in passing yards per game and 92nd in rushing yards -- something I really wouldn't have expected from a Paul Chryst-led team. Tech's defense is allowing 19.9 points per game by the way, good for 21st nationally.
Under 21.5 Points Allowed by Georgia Tech's Defense
Over/Under 3.5 Combined Turnovers
Georgia Tech has turned the ball over 16 times this season and turned opponents over 13 times -- good for a total of 3.63 combined turnovers per game. Meanwhile, in 7 games Pittsburgh has turned the ball over 9 times and turned opponents over 10 times, good for about 2.71 combined turnovers per game. Also worth noting is that Georgia Tech has alternated its turnover margin in each game this year, meaning a positive margin one game led to a negative margin the next, and vice versa. (The one outlying game was North Carolina, which had a net zero turnover margin.) I think Tech will be a lot more secure with the ball after last week, and Pitt will avoid turnovers as they have for the past few weeks (only one turnover in the past 3 games).
Under 3.5 Combined Turnovers
Over/Under 31:30 Time of Possession for Georgia Tech
Last week, Tech held the ball for under 26:00 and won, even though their norm for the season is over 34:00 of possession. This week they take on Pittsburgh, who typically has the ball for a little over 29:00. I'd say the matchup is pretty favorable for Tech in this case. Although you should note that the stakes have been raised this week, by a whole 30 seconds!
Over 31:30 Time of Possession for Georgia Tech
Over/Under 10.5-Point Margin of Victory for Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech has had a weird season to date, consisting of three straight wins, followed by three straight losses, followed by a dominating win, followed by one of the least convincing wins I've seen in a while. Now they come back for Homecoming against a team that's yet to play a good game against a worthy opponent, and you would think that's a slam dunk. Except, it's becoming clear that nothing can be taken for granted with this team. They were going to beat Virginia Tech on national television, and then laid an egg. They were stumbling and giving lots of reason for concern, and then had a flawless victory against Syracuse. They followed that up with a 5-turnover performance against a team that really didn't have much business hanging around, but still coming away with the win. Oh, and forget the Homecoming factor -- last year's Homecoming game saw 3 offensive points in a three-plus-touchdown beatdown from our opponent. What's going to happen? Time to roll the dice.
Over 10.5-Point Margin of Victory for Georgia Tech
|Dive Keep and Pitch||35||13||72.9%||The_GT_LineageX11||17||14||54.8%|
|Atlanta's original team||20||21||48.8%||GoalieLax||1||5||16.7%|
Your turn, readers. Take your picks!