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Correlating Prep Time to Victory or Defeat

On the 2010 schedule, Georgia Tech has six opponents that probably think their chances of victory are improved by getting extra time to prep for Georgia Tech. South Carolina State, NC State, Middle Tennessee, UNC, VPI, and Georgie get more than a week to prep for CPJ and the Jackets. Tech, since 2008, is only 2-4 against opponents with more than a week to prepare for Johnson's option. This simple statistic has been thrown in Tech fans' faces since the Orange Bowl, "Tech can be shutdown if you get extra time! LOLZ ROFLS I EAT RAT POISON 'CAUSE I CAN'T READ THE BOX!"

Today, I'd like to present conflicting and supporting evidence that correlates an opponent's prep time to victory or defeat of the Yellow Jackets.

First off, let's look at an opponent's time to prepare for the Yellow Jacket Offense. Considering we only have two years of GT data, we're gonna pull all of the data from 2002-present (Navy and GT games). It is downright foolhardy to believe that two bowl games and 4 regular season games mean jack squat in the grand scheme of things. We're talking long term trends. What we find is that opponents actually perform much better against CPJ when they have more than a week to prepare.


For CPJ, however, it seems that prep time is irrelevant. If he has 7 days or 14 days, he's going to win the game ~61% of the time.


So maybe fans of those 6 aforementioned teams have something to harp on...unless they're Hokie fans. The Hokies get some extra time but so does CPJ and he's shown that with equal prep time, his team typically comes out ahead (73% of the time). In fact, the strongest indicator of a victory in CPJ's coaching history is that he will have the same amount of prep time as his opponent. Length of prep is irrelevant. All that matters is that the playing field is equal.


If I were a betting man, I'd take the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill before I took the Hokies in Blacksburg against CPJ. Any thoughts out there?