Matt Mills sent me some nice Friday afternoon reading for you discussing Georgia Tech's chances of winning the Coastal Division. Now, to review:
-For Georgia Tech (5-3 ACC) to go to Charlotte, Duke, Virginia Tech, and Miami each need to lose one more time.
-Duke (4-2 ACC) has games left against Wake Forest and UNC.
-Miami (3-3 ACC) has games left against Virginia and Pittsburgh.
-Virginia Tech's (4-3 ACC) remaining ACC game is against Virginia.
Check out this article from a sports analytics blog that spells out the chances of each possible scenario happening, and what implications it would have on the Coastal's representative in Charlotte.
Here's the thing - Duke losing to UNC and Miami losing to Pittsburgh are each extremely conceivable, as you'll see in the article by Pitt's 46% chance and UNC's 52% chance (making the Tar Heels the favorite in that matchup). However, where it gets difficult to imagine is the case of Virginia Tech, who hasn't lost to Virginia since Al Groh was their coach in a 35-21 win in 2003.
That's right, Virginia Tech is looking to make it a decade since they've lost to Virginia, and have an 82% chance of doing so. To Virginia's credit, this will be a home game for the Hoos, but at that point it's up to them and their fans to actually fill the stadium and not have it overrun by Hokie fans. They also currently stand as losers of 7 straight games, with Miami this weekend and the Hokies to cap things off.
Folks, truth be told, Georgia Tech's road to Charlotte could go through Charlottesville, all things considered. With their ACC schedule complete, the Jackets have nothing left to do but sit back and watch things play out.
Oh, and winning their final two games would surely help to build momentum towards Charlotte as well.
Statistically, there's a 6.1% chance that Georgia Tech makes it to Charlotte as the representative for the Coastal Division. I'm saying there's a 20% chance it happens, and that VT-UVA will be the deciding factor. What chances do you give us of that happening?