Music City Bowl: Georgia Tech O vs Ole Miss D Part 2

Jim Brown-US PRESSWIRE

Looking at the matchup some more when Georgia Tech has the ball

Following the same format as the first two previews, today we will be look at some overall characteristics of Georgia Tech's Offense and Ole Miss's Defense. You can check out the first preview of these two units here, and the 2nd here.

Drive Outcomes

The great site fbsdrivestats.com provides information on a ton of breakdowns on a per-drive basis. Here is a table outlining how often each unit ends their drives.

Outcome Percentage of Possessions

Percentage (National Rank)

Drive Outcome Georgia Tech Offense Ole Miss Defense
Punt 32.9 (19) 44.4 (35)
Fumble Lost 9.1% (121) 4.3% (73)
Interception 10.1% (105) 9.4% (34)
Turnover 19.2% (122) 13.7% (43)
Effective Turnover* 25.3% (122) 16.2% (81)
Score 39.4% (48) 35% (55)
Touchdown 31.3% (40) 23.9% (52)

*Effective Turnover % includes turnover on-downs and safeties in addition to normal turnovers.

In case anyone was wondering there are only 125 FBS teams in the NCAA. So, when Georgia Tech ranks 122nd in the percentage of drives that end in turnovers, that means there are only three teams worse than us. Other than that we really aren't that bad, we punt rarely and score a decent amount (43rd in points scored per drive). But geez, why are we turning the ball over so much (offseason project)? Ole Miss meanwhile forces a decent amount of turnovers, but does allow teams to score a lot of touchdowns. If Georgia Tech could stop turning the ball over (I know, I know, let me hope) then we should be able to take advantage here.

Drive Based Efficiency

Brian Fremeau's FEI drive based efficiency stats take a look at how you performed on your drive given your starting field position and the opponent you are facing. These stats are very predictive and have also been cleaned up for garbage time and non-fbs games. Lets look at the differences between Georgia Tech's Offense and Ole Miss's Defense.

FEI Drive Efficiency

Percentage (National Rank)

Drive Category Georgia Tech Offense Ole Miss Defense
FEI Rank 32nd 25th
Available Yards Gained 49.2% (46) 45.3% (59)
Explosive Drives 14% (50) 10.3% (39)
Methodical Drives 18.7% (25) 15.9% (82)
Value Drives 41.5% (49) 37.3% (61)
Strength of Schedule 31st 12th

You can read more about the actual definitions of the different drive classifications here, but basically Explosive drives average 10+ ypp, methodical drives are 10+ plays long, and value drives move the ball into you opponent's territory.

This matchup is once again, pretty even. Ole Miss has faced a tougher slate of offenses than we have defenses, but all in all this matchup should be fairly close. The biggest discrepancy is in methodical drives. Georgia Tech is consistently great at moving the ball down the field on long drives, and this year is no different. Meanwhile Ole Miss actually is allowing their opponents a lot of 10+ play drives. Hopefully Georgia Tech will be able to use this advantage to flip field position and give our defense some rest.

Conclusion (Read this paragraph if you hate all my great and informative tables and statistics, I won't hate you for it)

Unlike previewing the Ole Miss Offense vs the Georgia Tech Defense, this matchup doesn't lend itself to much statistical analysis. Both units are very good at what they do, and neither has a huge weakness or strength. I think the two biggest factors in who succeeds will be how Ole Miss handle's the option offense, and if Georgia Tech can finally keep the ball safely away from the defense. Either of those can turn this matchup for either unit.

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