First, ACC tiebreaker rules are here. This part is important, and I think (?) new:
(Three team (or more) tiebreaker procedure will be used to break all ties to identify the Championship game representative. Once a team is eliminated from the tie, the tie-breaking procedures restart for the remaining teams. If the three (or more) team tie can only be reduced to two teams, the two-team tiebreaking procedure will then be applied).
Here is the remaining ACC schedule for the Coastal teams with any shot:
GT - @Clemson
Miami - VT, @Duke, UVA, @Pitt
VT - @Miami, UMD, @UVA
Duke - NCST, Miami, @WF, @UNC
Pitt - UNC, @Cuse, Miami
UNC - UVA, @Pitt, Duke
Scenario 1 (Status Quo):
Miami wins out.
Miami wins the division at 7-1.
Scenario 2 (Slightly Realistic 6-2):
Georgia Tech beats Clemson, Virginia Tech beats Miami, Hokies and Canes win out after that.
This gets a 3-way tie for 1st at 6-2. Under the above rule, Georgia Tech is eliminated and Virginia Tech wins on head-to-head against Miami.
Scenario 3 (Silly 6-2):
Georgia Tech beats Clemson, Duke wins out, Miami loses to Duke.
3-way tie at 6-2, all teams 1-1 among the group. Going to tiebreaker #2, Miami would win by having the best divisional winning % by going 5-1 against the Coastal while the others are 4-2.
Scenario 4 (More Silly 6-2):
Georgia Tech beats Clemson, Virginia Tech and Duke win out. Exactly the same as above, but replace "Miami" with "Virginia Tech".
Scenario 5 (Other 6-2s):
There are a variety of 2-team 6-2 scenarios that can happen. They'll all get shaken out over the next 2 weeks.
The 5-3 Cluster:
My original plan for this was to figure out the 5-3 scenarios, but, well it turns out that pretty much everyone except GT has too many games left to do it easily. The problem with 5-3 is that there are still scenarios where Pitt or UNC (thanksfully not both thanks to that game in 2 weeks) get involved, and things can just get too crazy. Probably just best to revisit this in 2 weeks if it is still even possible.
The Bottom Line:
GT is practically (but not mathematically) eliminated from winning the Coastal by virtue of losing to both VT and Miami.
If we beat Clemson, we just have to hope for Miami to implode down the stretch and VT to pick up another loss somewhere. Any 6-2 scenario except a tie with Duke alone, we lose. VT and Miami still control their own destiny.
If we lose to Clemson, it would take a pretty incredible series of events to win the Coastal. If this is even remotely possible after the games of 11/16, I'll come back and calculate some of them then. If nothing else, it will eliminate the Pitt-UNC loser.